Wednesday's larger-than-expected pullback once again repelled investors' confidence, and it is easy to continue to hit investor confidence and is certainly not friendly to market development. However, at the current level, a sharp decline and a slow rise are typical of the bottom impulse, which will be the focus of attention in the short term.
In terms of technical relations, we explain that if we want to continue to fall again, it will stimulate the characteristics of technical extremes, especially the synchronous extremes of daily and weekly, which is not rare, and a large depression will inevitably lead to a bipolar change relationship between daily and daily, which indicates that ** will come at any time.
Moreover, continuous low-level passivation often brings more vigorous action, especially to meet our development expectations for short-term technical improvement and optimization. Once it can continue to repair slowly, it is possible to continue to expand horizontally to rebuild short-term technical advantages, which is very meaningful for bottoming.
It is indeed a trend of repeated new lows, which is not conducive to the recovery of market confidence. However, it is inevitable that the situation of repeated see-sawing and then falling and shrinking will be. Wednesday's fall is only a room for expansion, but it is difficult to continue to rise or advance in itself, and retracement fluctuations are necessary, and shrinkage precipitation is precisely the normal phenomenon of building a bottom.
The fundamentals have also sparked depressed investor sentiment, with the economic woes from the economic work conference inducing investors to be cautious and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting also creating constraints. But these situations, in themselves, are all open cards, and they can only be said to be emotionally affected, and do not constitute an essential relationship. Judging from the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve overnight, it is expected that the interest rate hike cycle will end, and the expectation of interest rate cuts next year is given.
Judging from these circumstances, the external pressure will also be significantly eased, and the RMB will also recover significantly, which can reflect the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and A-shares are also expected to enhance risk appetite. For the short-term market**, looking at the bottom structure, the repair expectation can be viewed positively.
However, the objective structural contradictions are in place, and there are no conditions for immediate reversal and change, and it still takes some time to reconcile the technical contradictions. And according to the short-term technical relationship deduction, it is not easy to achieve short-term technical advantages in the next 2-3 weeks. Then the anti-rise ** will still face suppression and obstacles.
As a result, it is also necessary to deal with fluctuations in market probability. Although the policy superposition has blown a warm wind, the technical situation has not improved, and the economic situation is weak and sluggish, which will undoubtedly continue to affect the development of the market. Moreover, the fundamental problem lies in our own economic development relationship, which is the core key.
Generally speaking, after a sharp decline on Wednesday, it seems that the structural contradiction has widened, but the shrinkage precipitation and the sharp fall will continue to brew extreme characteristics, and ** will also be on the verge of breaking out. The probability of a slow rise is quite high, even if it falls again, then the possibility of pulling back next week will be greatly improved, which indicates that there is no need to be afraid of sustaining **.
The main reason is that the contradiction is large. However, the remarks of the Fed's interest rate decision overnight and the expectation of interest rate cuts next year will also bring an increase in risk appetite to the A** field, and the policy warm wind is also expected to quickly correct the short-term extreme trend. It's just that before the right advantage is established, aggressiveness is not encouraged and the total risk is continued to be controlled.
Specific to the selection and operation of the first class, we must always understand that we should not be in the company of falling stocks, do not take junk stocks, do not play with themes, do not play with concepts, do not listen to news, do not fantasize, and follow the principle of "weekly line-based, only quantity is asking, four conditions, trend is king, eliminating the weak and keeping the strong, and returning to zero every day" to examine and actively respond to the changes and development of the market.
*There are risks and caution should be exercised.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is purely personal views and theoretical arguments, and is only for your reference and should not constitute investment advice**The analysis and description are not recommendations, comments, or recommended operations, and investors should make their own judgments and bear their own risks. ）