Reading guide] six well-known ** managers look forward to 2024: A-shares are expected to rise, and the strategy remains positive and optimistic.
China** Daily reporter Fang Li, Li Shuchao, Cao Wenjing The end of 2023 is imminent, and the curtain will open in 2024. Looking back on 2023, the overall performance of the A** field is weak, and the whole year is full of twists and turns, and the plate structure is significantly differentiated. Looking ahead to 2024, how will the market perform?What are the investment opportunities and risks to keep an eye on?How should the average investor respond?To this end, a reporter from China** Daily interviewed six well-known ** managers to answer questions for investors, and their core views are:
Mo Haibo, deputy general manager of Wanjia**: In 2024, the overall market is expected to face the conditions of improvement in both domestic and foreign macro expectations, the market is likely to be upward, and investment opportunities may increase significantly. 
Li Yongxing, deputy general manager of Yongying and manager of Hui Tianli: After the early adjustment, the positive signal is increasing, and the strategy should grasp the medium and long-term investment opportunities, the layout of the dip, and the market should be more patient and optimistic. 
Wang Guizhong, Research Director of Harvest Big Technology and Manager of Harvest Culture, Sports and Entertainment: There may be some fluctuations in the future, but the most difficult time will gradually pass. I believe that the rise of China's technology and manufacturing is unstoppable, and every time it is an opportunity to increase positions. 
Han Chuang, deputy director of the investment department of Dacheng***: To fight against the uncertain market, it may be necessary to find the strongest "shield" and the sharpest "spear". 
Tang Neng, manager of Yinhua Sports Culture: The current global state is the same, and it is necessary to drive economic growth through scientific and technological innovation, and the breakthrough of science and technology is the main market opportunity, and we are optimistic about the big opportunities for the growth sector of science and technology in 2024. 
Wan Minyuan, manager of Rongtong Health Industry: For the current market, it may be a fully pessimistic pricing, which not only fully reflects the weak reality of the past, but also fully reflects the weak expectations of the future. One2023 is a year of adjustment and shufflingLay the groundwork for future opportunitiesChina ** News: 2023 is coming to an end, and the overall volatility of the A** field this year is large. Standing at the end of the year, how to evaluate this year's market performance?Mo Haibo:For China, this year is a complete year of post-epidemic recovery, and although the recovery process has twists and turns, it is stable and improving;For overseas, the interest rate hike cycle in Europe and the United States has gradually come to an end this year, and overseas macro liquidity and global aggregate demand are facing an inflection point, and it is difficult for the market to judge the rhythm of the inflection point of the interest rate hike cycle, resulting in greater fluctuations in global risk appetite. On the whole, this year is a year of inflection points, the difficulty of market transactions has increased significantly, and it is not easy to seek excess returns in the market. Wan Minyuan:There are strong macro factors behind the market volatility this year, such as the weak reality that "the market has strong expectations for the economic recovery after liberalization at the beginning of the year, and the pace of the actual economic recovery is somewhat different", but these problems have been fully priced in stock prices in the past. Li Yongxing:Overall, this year's market is more like a process of adjustment and shuffling, laying the foundation for future opportunities. From the perspective of the whole year, affected by comprehensive factors such as weak internal effective demand and external interest rate hike cycle, the volatility of A-shares has intensified, and the overall trend is to decline. As of mid-December, the major broad-based indices during the year were all **, of which the ChiNext index fell by more than 20% for the year. At the style and industry level, the performance of the small cap throughout the year was better than **, and the cyclical and financial styles were more resistantDriven by the transformation of the AI industry and Huawei's concept, TMT sectors such as media, communications, and computers led the market. Tang Neng:The overall market for the whole year is weaker, but the structural characteristics are more obvious. There is a certain pressure on the real estate and related industrial chain industries, and the pro-cyclical sector is weak as a whole. The high-dividend and low-valuation sectors have larger excess returns and better absolute returns. Throughout the year, artificial intelligence is the main line of the market, with large increases and fluctuations, as well as related robots and intelligent driving. Han Chuang:At the beginning of this year, I proposed that investment should focus on hard assets, mainly hoping to reduce some uncertainties by focusing on the investment scope of hard assets, so that my portfolio can resist various potential shocks as much as possible. From my point of view, if you want to fight against a less certain market, you may still have to look for the strongest "shield" and the sharpest "spear". The so-called strongest "shield" means that when we look at a company, we should pay special attention to its balance sheet and cash flow statement. In the uncertain environment, we should not pay too much attention to the income statement, only the balance sheet and cash flow statement are the most important guarantees for a company to withstand the unknown external environment. Moving on to the sharpest "spear", although there are many uncertainties in the external environment, if the company grows fast enough, it can withstand adverse external environments. This year, A** is trying to find this kind of asset in AI and other areas, and if we can find this kind of asset while taking into account the company's margin of safety, it may be the best allocation. Wang Guizhong:The wind rises at the end of the green ping, and the waves rise between the waves. This year, the A** field as a whole showed a first-class trend, with frequent switching of hot spots and rapid rotation of the industry, which brought great challenges to investment. When it comes to technology investment specifically, people tend to overestimate the short-term and underestimate the long-term. This has also led to the ups and downs of AI** this year, and investors have experienced a round of process from feeling amazing and feeling like this at the beginning of the year. From the perspective of the performance of the secondary market, from the perspective of the global market, it has gradually returned to rationality and insipidity. With the advent of Open AI and GPT 4, it means that AI is moving from weak AI to strong AI. At present, the AI industry is at the starting point of an explosion, and in the future, as the cost of large models continues to decline, it will become possible to empower all industries. All information-related areas will be reshaped to some extent, and there are still a large number of long-tail applications that have not been significantly satisfied. After the second half of the year, standing in the current position, we believe that there may be some fluctuations in the future, but the most difficult time will gradually pass;I believe that the rise of China's technology and manufacturing is unstoppable, and every time it is an opportunity to increase positions. IIStrong policy initiatives and economic dataIt helps to build market confidence graduallyChina ** News: What is the biggest factor restricting the market at the moment?Where does market confidence come from, and what catalysts are needed to build market confidence?Mo Haibo:The biggest constraint on the current market is that the domestic economy is already in the process of repairing after the intensive policy efforts, but the recovery of market confidence has a certain lag. We believe that on the one hand, confidence needs to be gradually implemented through a series of detailed measures to "stabilize growth" policies introduced in the early stageOn the other hand, it is necessary to wait until the data gap period has passed, and the market sees that the data exceeds expectations and the economic recovery trend is confirmed. Li Yongxing:**The Economic Work Conference has made specific arrangements for next year's key work, and the follow-up market confidence needs to continue to increase the total policy, the implementation of policies in more subdivided areas and the continuous verification of economic data. First, it is necessary to continue to exert financial efforts, and the introduction of incremental financial tools is the key;Second, the follow-up domestic monetary policy still needs to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to cooperate with the fiscal force;Third, it is necessary to support the introduction of structural support for real estate, local debt and other issues. Tang Neng:There are two biggest constraints on the current market: first, overseas inflation is still high, the US dollar is relatively strong, and the RMB has some pressure. Second, domestic economic expectations are weak. At present, domestic policies are being actively introduced, capital market policies are extremely protective of the market, and the market is expected to usher in the first after the domestic economic growth momentum is relatively clear. Han Chuang:I think the biggest constraint on the market at the moment is the lack of confidence. In fact, we are now at a critical stage of transformation, and we can already see a lot of new momentum emerging along the way. Of course, some of the old momentum is indeed facing some pressure, but the "to promote stability, first establish and then break" proposed by the ** Economic Work Conference has pointed out the direction from the overall level, so I believe that market confidence will be gradually established in the future. From a catalyst perspective, some strong policy moves and economic data will help build confidence. Wan Minyuan:The main constraint, in addition to objective macro data, is the lack of market confidence. We can see that the policy side has been exerting force, and the intensity is getting stronger and stronger, and these are very positive changes. While it may take a while to see the inflection point clearly, it may be a little more optimistic against the backdrop of the current low market position. Wang Guizhong:The constraints on the market may be the lack of investment sentiment and confidence. At present, a series of policies to "activate the capital market and boost investor confidence" are continuing to land, China's economy is resilient, has great potential, and is full of vitality, the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed, and the macro fundamentals are recovering. IIIIn 2024, A-shares are expected to show the highest upward trendChina ** News: After nearly a year of differentiation, style switching, and structuralization, is the current market in the bottom area of high cost performance, and what is the overall valuation?What do you think about a*** in 2024?Mo Haibo:At present, the valuation of the overall market index has been at a historical low, the valuation of the Wind All-A Index in the past five years is about 11% quantile, and the SSE 50, CSI 300 and CSI 500 are below the % quantile in the past five years. Considering that the overall domestic fiscal policy will further strengthen in 2024, the real estate is expected to stabilize in the context of policy easing, and consumption may continue to recover gradually after the epidemicThe overseas interest rate hike cycle in Europe and the United States has come to an end, and interest rate cuts are expected to begin next year, and the global macro environment will turn loose. Therefore, the A** market in 2024 is worth looking forward to, and the major indices are expected to show an upward trend. Li Yongxing:As of mid-December, the valuation level of Wind All A is about 16 times, which is below the 20% quantile in the past decade. Looking forward to 2024, although there are blockages in the domestic cycle and a more complex overseas environment, the momentum of economic development is still strong, considering that China has room for policy development and has competitive advantages in many fields in the world. In addition, the Federal Reserve is expected to start an interest rate cut cycle next year, and China and the United States will usher in a resonance at the liquidity level, which may support the valuation of A-shares. On the whole, there is no need to be pessimistic about the performance of the market outlook, and it is expected that market opportunities outweigh risks. Tang Neng:Valuations are currently very cheap, market valuations are down, and the major broad-based index PE (TTM) is generally below the 40% historical quantile. In 2024, the PPI is expected to enter an upward channel, opening a new round of weak inventory cycle, the scarring effect will further subside, and nominal GDP will rise. **Leverage, the future economic growth target may remain at about 5%, fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain positive, policies to activate the capital market are expected to continue to advance, and the market is expected to usher in a recovery in 2024**. Han Chuang:I think the current market may be in a more definite bottom zone. Looking at the major sectors, most valuations are at historically low percentile levels. At the lower valuation level, the main reason why the market is still weak is that there is not enough confidence in the economic fundamentals, especially the real estate concern. However, we have clearly stated that "actively and prudently resolve real estate risks and meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination", and on this basis, we are looking forward to the market performance in 2024. Wan Minyuan:Whether in the short term or in the long term, the current market is at a relatively low position. For the current position of the market, it may already be a sufficiently pessimistic pricing, which not only fully reflects the weak reality of the past, but also fully reflects the weak expectations of the future. From a value point of view, it makes little sense to be overly pessimistic at this time, and I am more willing to be optimistic about the direction in which positive changes may occur next year, as well as the space they contain in the current state of low valuation. Wang Guizhong:After the continuous adjustment, the current overall market valuation and risk premium level are at historically low levels. As of December 14, 2023**, Wind All A has a P/E ratio of 1655 times, which is 2015% quantile. From the perspective of risk premium, the risk premium rate of Wind All A is 341%, located in the last decade 863% high quartile. Looking forward to the market outlook, we are optimistic about the capital market, the allocation value of equity assets is continuing to be highlighted, and we are optimistic about the future performance of the A** market. FourthSectors such as technological innovation, economic recovery, and dividend assets are optimisticChina ** Daily reporter: Under the continuous increase of various favorable policies, which industrial fields and track investment opportunities are you more optimistic about next year?Mo Haibo:We are relatively optimistic about three types of assets, one is the digital economy that benefits from the continuous rise of the industry's prosperity and is in line with the national strategic direction in the first economic work conference, such as artificial intelligence, computing infrastructure, etc.;Second, benefiting from the improvement of macro expectations at home and abroad, the recovery of the domestic economy and the expectation of interest rate cuts by overseas European and American central banks, some pro-cyclical varieties priced globally are elastic, such as resource goods and manufacturingThird, dividend assets with relatively high earnings stability, low valuation and high dividends are expected to obtain absolute returns from the long-term perspective of the downward risk-free interest rate and the addition of long-term incremental funds such as insurance funds and pensions. In addition, the seeds and military industry continue to be optimistic about the continuous support of national policies and strategies, and the seeds and military industry with obvious marginal changes in the industry's prosperity. Li Yongxing:In December, the ** Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to take more measures to stabilize growth, and the construction of a modern industrial system will be the primary task in 2024, and the follow-up total volume and structural policies will be highlighted. For the market, in 2024, we will pay attention to opportunities in growth sectors such as new industries, and take into account pro-cyclical. First, at the industry level, we should focus on the launch of a new round of innovation cycle for AI terminals, the acceleration of satellite Internet infrastructure construction, and the direction of medical services brought about by demographic changes and technological innovation. The second is to pay attention to the subdivisions with supply constraints in the pro-cyclical sector. Tang Neng:The pro-cyclical sector is bullish on consumption and agriculture. The growth sector is optimistic about artificial intelligence-related sectors: the multimodal iteration speed of overseas large models is fast, the application field of artificial intelligence has been greatly expanded, and the domestic large model has entered the stage of large-scale construction, and the application is expected to explode, so we are optimistic about the medium and long-term investment opportunities in the artificial intelligence sector. Wang Guizhong:On the whole, the logic of artificial intelligence to improve information production efficiency is very clear, and it is also the biggest innovation in science and technology. Looking ahead to the coming year, AI-related software and hardware will continue to be the core thread. From the perspective of layout direction, the relatively more optimistic link is still AI applications, including industries that have been changed by the Internet are expected to be changed by AI againThe software will also change from functional software to intelligent software, and its capabilities will be further improved, helping us do more things, and the interaction will be more friendly. **It will revolve around the gradual realization of profits, and the direction of B-end applications with rapid landing and low expectations is worth paying attention to. Han Chuang:Since the second half of last year, I am more optimistic about hard assets, and I divide the so-called hard assets into three categories: resource products with supply constraints, manufacturing with cost advantages, and some optional consumer goods whose products can be differentiated, which is probably the variety that I have always believed to have relative returns. The overall performance of resource products with supply constraints has exceeded returns in recent years, regardless of whether it is colored varieties or black varieties. Personally, I think the importance of supply has been increasing in the past two years, and the market may have been worried about the demand side. Regarding the cost advantage of the manufacturing industry, I have always believed that many domestic manufacturing industry to the end, the cost advantage is the most important competitive advantage, regardless of the external environment, the cost of manufacturing companies with obvious advantages in the growth is relatively reliable. Regarding optional consumer goods that can be differentiated from products, because optional consumer goods must be able to achieve product differentiation, including the whole vehicle, everyone is also choosing in this direction. I think that no matter what kind of consumer goods industry you are in, as long as you can make a differentiated product, consumers will be willing to pay for it. Wan Minyuan:The current stock selection logic focuses on these points: deterministic growth, clear incremental logic, and pessimistic pricing. The general direction mainly includes two categories: scientific and technological innovation and economic recovery. Deterministic growth is the direction in which clear growth can be seen even in the context of weak realities, and rigid demand is strong. This focuses on the pharmaceutical sector. Due to the rigidity of its own industry demand attributes, some directions will also be negatively affected by the base in 2023. Looking at next year, its certainty may be stronger, and the current valuation level is still at a reasonably low position. Pessimistic pricing is represented by the large consumption sector with low expectations, where the pricing given by the market implies a potentially good risk-return ratio. There are some subdivisions in which there is a high probability that it will not be worse next year, and once there is an improvement, or there is an expectation of improvement, it is expected to correspond to good earnings and valuation upward revision space. FivePay attention to geopolitics, the strength of economic recovery, etcChina ** News: In 2024, have the uncertainties that disturbed the market been diluted one by one?What other key events need investors' attention?Mo Haibo:The main risk factors are: First, the secondary upward risk of overseas inflation, the fundamental problem behind this round of overseas inflation is that the production capacity cycle is tight and has not been completely solved, so overseas inflation may have another upward risk, which may once again bring about the recurrence of monetary policy in Europe and the United States, as well as the sharp fluctuation of global risk assets. Second, the global geopolitical conflict has intensified, and the risk that the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the Middle East may intensify or even spread needs attention. Wan Minyuan:Macro negative factors are weakening at the margin, from the perspective of policy efforts, economic indicators may gradually improve, and external liquidity also supports market sentiment. Looking ahead, it is unlikely that there will be even more extreme and pessimistic scenarios than now, and the current situation may be a little more optimistic. Later, we can pay more attention to some changes and indicators for the better. Li Yongxing:Although issues such as overseas liquidity constraints and domestic local debt are expected to usher in positive changes in 2024, investors still need to pay attention to multiple risks. First, there may be uncertainty in the strength of domestic demand repair;Second, in 2024, Russia, the United States and other countries around the world will hold political games that may disturb risk appetite. In addition, the implementation of important geopolitical risks such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the risk of Russia and Ukraine also needs to be closely watched. Tang Neng:First, geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the market. Second, changes in domestic macroeconomic policies. Wang Guizhong:Investments in technology stocks are volatile and thematical, and it is helpful to understand how to understand them. First of all, scientific and technological innovation is global and universalSecondly, there is an objective gap between our technological development and the United States, which leads to the fact that the realization of profits is often not as good as that of the same type of enterprises in the United States, so it is inevitable that there is some confusion about the valuation and rhythm of the investment process. Overall, AI is still very clear and certain, and it can help improve efficiency and create value, and what we need to do is to find excellent companies from it and share the rewards of their growth. SixRecommended for investors in 2024Strategically remain positiveChina ** News: At the end of the year, what investment advice do you have for ordinary investors in 2024?Mo Haibo:In 2024, the overall market is expected to face the conditions of improvement in both domestic and foreign macro expectations, the market is likely to be upward, and investment opportunities may increase significantly. However, at the same time, it is necessary to recognize that the risk of this round of overseas inflation has not been completely eliminated, and there is still a risk of intensification of global geopolitical conflicts, and ordinary investors are advised to remain patient and make a good investment plan. Li Yongxing:After the early adjustment, the positive signals are increasing, and strategically we must grasp the medium and long-term investment opportunities and lay out the bargains. For the ** market, be more patient and more optimistic. For investors who have a macro research foundation and are more sensitive to economic changes, they can consider the allocation of large types of assets and adjust the allocation of each asset according to the changes in the macro situationFor investors with relatively poor macro foundations, they can also hand over their funds to professional investors to manage, and it may be a better choice to find more long-term assets, so as to pursue long-term compound returns and strive to cross bulls and bears. Tang Neng:First, strengthen confidence in the domestic capital market, and actively deploy when the market is weak. Second, increase the focus on the technology cost sector. Wang Guizhong:Don't be opportunistic in the face of big opportunities, the best strategy in the face of big technological changes is to embrace, whether it's investment or life. Personally, I think that the better investment strategy in the new year is still to keep an eye on the industry trend, strengthen confidence when the volatility is downward, and stabilize the position when the volatility is upward. Earn money you believe in and not be distracted by short-term mood swings. If you believe in the prospect of artificial intelligence, it is recommended that you can take a part of the long money and hold it for a long time, and you don't need to chase the high**. Han Chuang:For ordinary investors, I would like to suggest two things, that is, strengthen confidence and control risks. In the long run, the equity market is still the best channel for ordinary people to share in the development of the economy and obtain property appreciation, as long as we believe that the economy will continue to develop and enterprises will continue to evolve, we should strengthen our confidence in investing in the equity market. On the other hand, learning to control risks is one of the most important things in investment, especially in a volatile market like A-shares, ordinary investors need to maintain a certain degree of vigilance and do a good job in risk control for particularly hot sectors. Wan Minyuan:It has been difficult for the market for a while, but investing to make money does require some contrarian thinking. The bottom position is more upward, good-looking, and hopeful, and in a long-term bottom position layout, I believe that after a period of time, there will be a good return. Editor: Xiaomo Review: Xu WenChina** Daily "2023 Year-end Report".