Have the wine companies achieved the small goals of 2023?

Text|Wine News Fang Yuan.

Edit|Nian Yi.

There is still some distance before the next earnings season, and under the stimulation of the operation of Jinshiyuan and Guizhou Group's good news, curiosity about the progress of the 2023 performance target of the wine company has also been aroused. Counting the small goals of "double-digit growth" one after another at the beginning of the year, have all the wine companies achieved them?

01 The good news was released in advance on December 29, stepping on the tail of 2023, Jinshiyuan couldn't wait to disclose the "membership card" of the members of the "Ten Billion Club" to the outside world. According to the announcement, the company is expected to achieve a total operating income of 100 in 2023about 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27Around 41%.

If nothing else, Jinshiyuan will become the seventh listed liquor company with a scale of more than 10 billion yuan in the liquor sector, in addition to Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu.

It is worth mentioning that after Shunxin Agriculture (Niulanshan) exceeded the scale of 10 billion yuan in 2019, it was affected by factors such as the epidemic and changes in consumer demand, resulting in poor sales, and only stayed in the "10 billion club" for 3 years before falling below 10 billion in 2022, with 20The drop of 7% fell back to 810.9 billion yuan. Whether it can return to the scale of 10 billion remains to be verified.

According to the announcement, Kweichow Moutai is expected to achieve total operating income and attributable net profit of about 149.5 billion yuan and 73.5 billion yuan respectively in 2023, a year-on-year increase. 2%。This growth rate is the fastest year for the company's revenue growth since 2019. Previously, Kweichow Moutai's revenue growth rates from 2019 to 2022 were respectively. 53%。

Wine News Think Tank.

In addition, according to the data released by Moutai Group at the 2024 Annual Market Work Conference held on December 30, 2023, Moutai Group achieved revenue of 163.9 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of about 20%;The company's total profit exceeded 100 billion yuan, which is also the first time in the history of Moutai Group's development that the annual profit exceeded 100 billion yuan.

In 2023, under the influence of inventory depletion, the capital market's attitude towards the liquor sector has maintained a disoptimistic expectation, with 20 ** struggling for a whole year to 11The overall decline in market capitalization of 15% has run out of 2023. One of the main reasons affecting investor sentiment is the uncertain factor that the inventory depletion efficiency is not high, which affects the performance growth in the later stage.

The 20 listed liquor companies in the liquor sector finally ended up with 1115% overall** caps a year of turmoil. Among them, Kweichow Moutai and Jinshiyuan are also included, and the range declines in this year are respectively. 42%。

Judging from the revenue growth, whether it is 27The year-on-year growth rate of 41% is still Kweichow Moutai 17The year-on-year growth rate of 2% is a good growth compared to the situation in 2022. At the end of 2023, we can't wait to make the performance report public, and the intention of "flexing muscles" to the market and boosting market confidence is obvious.

02 The 2023 small goal of breaking 10 billion yuan in this world is actually reasonable and planned. At the end of 2022, the 2023 Jinshiyuan Development Conference emphasized the company's determination to exceed 10 billion in revenue in 2023. Despite the fact that "1005 "This number seems a little unstable, but this Shiyuan has indeed entered a new journey of 10 billion as he wished.

Kweichow Moutai, as a liquor company that took the lead in good news, has also completed the "2023 small goal". According to the previous plan, the company's performance target for 2023 is "total operating income increased by about 15% compared with the previous year",172% perfectly crossed the small goal.

However, after the price increase of Moutai by 20%, many brokerage institutions have higher expectations for the performance growth of Kweichow Moutai, among which Minsheng** and Guojin** gave Kweichow Moutai's net profit growth rate in 2023 respectively. 3% expectation, obviously, for this high expectation, 17A growth rate of 2% is not so "surprising".

In addition, among the 20 listed liquor companies, except for Shunxin Agriculture, Golden Seed Liquor, and Huangtai Liquor, which have not clarified their performance targets for 2023, the rest of the liquor companies have made plans for their annual performance, among which the "double-digit" growth is frequently mentioned. For example, Luzhou Laojiao proposed to "achieve a year-on-year increase in revenue of not less than 15%", and Kouzijiao proposed "the overall performance growth target is not less than 18%" and so on.

Information**: Public information;Compiled by the Wine News Think Tank.

There are also some wine companies that are accurate to "two decimal places" in their performance targets, such as the "strive to complete 51700 million yuan sales target", Shede Liquor proposed "operating income not less than 74100 million yuan", Yingjia Gongjiu proposed "plan to achieve revenue of 660.6 billion yuan, an increase of 20 percent year-on-year00%”。

Of course, compared with the above-mentioned more "confident" wine companies, some wine companies have relatively conservative and vague annual performance targets. Among them, the two liquor companies Shuijingfang and Jiuguijiu have tacitly set the annual goal of "maintaining growth in net profit and operating income year-on-year in 2022".

Kweichow Moutai and Jinshiyuan are the first to report, what is the progress of the annual goals of the rest of the wine companies?Referring to the proportion of wine companies in the first three quarters of 2022 to the annual revenue, combined with the revenue in the first three quarters of 2023, the Wine News Think Tank roughly calculated the possible values of the annual revenue of each wine company in 2023.

Information**: Public information;Compiled by the Wine News Think Tank.

On the whole, in 2022, the revenue scale of liquor companies in the first three quarters will account for about 70%-80% of the whole year, and with reference to this ratio, in 2023, 10 of the 17 listed liquor companies that have set performance targets for 2023 have completed the set targets.

The performance target of "15% year-on-year increase in revenue" set by Yanghe requires the company to achieve revenue of 346 in 20232 billion yuan, and with reference to the proportion of the first three quarters, the company's annual revenue is expected to be about 3442.4 billion yuan, about 1$9.7 billion difference. Shuijingfang formulated "the net profit and operating income of the whole year will maintain growth year-on-year in 2022", with reference to the proportion of revenue in the first three quarters of 444.6 billion yuan, down 2$2.7 billion. Shede Liquor formulated the "operating income of not less than 74100 million yuan", with reference to the proportion of the third quarter of the data is 68800 million yuan, a difference of 5 percent from the target3 billion yuan.

In addition, the difference between the revenue data and the revenue target of Tianyoude Liquor, Rock Shares, and Elite according to the proportion of the first three quarters is -00.9 billion yuan, -72.3 billion yuan, -46 billion yuan. It can be seen that the difference between the above six companies is small and basically negligible. In other words, it can basically be regarded as the achievement of the annual goal.

After setting a relatively conservative performance target of "maintaining growth in net profit and operating income for the whole year compared with 2022", the revenue calculated with reference to the proportion in the first three quarters of 2023 is about 248.9 billion yuan, compared with 40 billion yuan in the previous yearThe revenue of 500 million yuan is about 15$6.1 billion difference. This difference can be said to be a fallback for drunkards with a small base.

03 Inventory clearance "debt" Overall, 16 of the 17 listed liquor companies that have set annual targets are expected to achieve the set targets, showing a stable growth situation as a whole. However, judging from the performance of the first three quarters of 2023, in terms of completion, there may be a number of situations that have passed the line.

"Steady growth", in different wine companies, represents a slightly different meaning.

Behind Wuliangye's proposal that "total operating income will continue to maintain double-digit steady growth", it has achieved double-digit revenue growth for 7 consecutive years since 2016, and 2023 is likely to usher in the eighth double-digit growth year. Kweichow Moutai's "total operating income increased by about 15% over the previous year" is similar to Wuliangye, and the company also maintained double-digit revenue growth from 2016 to 2022. Even at the outset of the pandemic in 2020, this stability remained.

The liquor news think tank combed the revenue growth rate of listed liquor companies and saw that in 2021 (taking the first three quarters as a reference), some liquor companies have seen a "great leap forward" in performance, such as Shede Liquor, Drunkard Liquor, and Shuijingfang. However, in this process, the revenue growth rate of the leading wine companies is relatively stable and has not fluctuated greatly, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe Co., Ltd., and Luzhou Laojiao.

Wine News Think Tank.

In this regard, most people in the industry believe that in the case of an inactive consumer market, the head wine companies are actually consciously controlling the company's performance growth, adjusting the inventory of social channels, and reducing the pressure on channels.

Regarding the statement of "controlling the growth rate of performance", Yun Xiaoyu, general manager of Beijing Cointreau Consulting, told the Wine News Think Tank that the control of growth by wine companies is actually to "loosen the binding" of themselves. Therefore, in order to avoid the situation of large fluctuations in performance in the later stage, some wine companies will adjust their performance growth by controlling shipments and policy regulation. Another reason to control the growth rate of performance in 2023 is to accelerate the digestion of social inventory to achieve the purpose of healthy development.