When will the downward trend of the industrial chain continue?Previously, most analysts' answer was that "part of the production capacity will be cleared in the first half of 2024, forming a new balance between supply and demand". However, judging from the market demand and production capacity data for the whole year next year, this cold wave may last longer, and the industry situation in the second half of next year is also not clear.
Recently, China Southern Power Grid Energy's 2023 crystalline silicon photovoltaic module framework bidding (1400MW) has been opened. According to the tender announcement, the capacity of Package 1 is 400MW, and the supply time is in the second quarter of 2024;Standard package 2 and standard package 3 both have a capacity of 500MW, and the supply time is for the whole year of 2024. Among them, 40% of each standard package is 550WP and above single-glass modules, which can use PERC, TOPCON, HJT or IBC technology, and the remaining 60% is N-type bifacial modules of 570WP and above, which can use TOPCon and HJT technology.
It is worth mentioning that the PV modules in this bidding are similar to the 2023 crystalline silicon photovoltaic module framework procurement of CSG Energy last week, which is a fixed unit price, and the unit price of the modules of bid package 2 and standard package 3 is subject to the adjustment mechanism of the market.
A total of 24 companies participated in the bidding. Among them,Standard Package 1There are 23 companies participating, bidding **087-1.08 yuan w, the average is 09337 yuan W, slightly lower than the level of 200MW frame procurement of the Southern Power Grid last week. If you don't take into account two companies that use high-cost technology routes, the average bid price is 0$92 w.
Standard Package 2There are 23 companies participating, bidding **0883-1.08 yuan w, the average is 09395 yuan w, after removing two high-cost technical route enterprises, the average is 09265 yuan w.
Standard Package 3There are 24 companies participating, bidding **0883-1.08 yuan w, the average is 0937 yuan w, after removing the two high-cost technical route enterprises, the average is 09244 yuan w.
Judging from the above table, most enterprises have the same or similar standard package 2 and standard package 3, but there is a certain difference with the standard package 1. After comparison, it was found that the ** of the standard package of 9 enterprises was 1 point w or more higher than that of the standard package 1, and the highest was 52 points w;The ** of the 10 enterprise standard package is the same as the standard package 1 or the price difference is less than 1 point w;The ** of the standard package of the 3 enterprises is lower than that of the standard package 1, and the gap can reach 61 point w. There is another company** that has no obvious pattern.
Many companies have reported more advanced qualifications in the bidding package, are they bullish in the second half of next year?One practitioner gave a negative answer. "The standard package is for the whole year and not for the second half of the year, which means,The bidder can choose the lower cost of the two ** modes to reduce the cost of module procurement。In the second half of next year, the industrial chain may still be in a downward trend, at least the third-party platform will not be high, and enterprises need to leave enough space for future price adjustments to prevent losses. ”