2023 is an extraordinary year, and it is full of variables and crises for ***. Against the backdrop of the Taiwan authorities' continuous provocation of the mainland's bottom line, refusal to recognize the '92 Consensus, and promotion of "** activities," the mainland has adopted a series of countermeasures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
One of the most interesting is the mainland's investigation of the country's ** barrier to Taiwan, and the possible termination of the ECFA (Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement). ECFA is an economic cooperation agreement signed on June 29, 2010, which aims to promote cross-strait economic and trade exchanges, reduce tariff barriers, increase market access, and enhance competitiveness.
ECFA is considered to be a milestone and is of great significance to the development and stability of Taiwan's economy. However, due to the erroneous policies and attitudes of the Taiwan authorities, the future of the ECFA has become very uncertain. The mainland has made it clear that if Taiwan continues to impose restrictive measures on the mainland, it will take corresponding measures, including terminating the ECFA. The Taiwan authorities, for their part, have indicated that they will never accept threats and pressure from the mainland and are ready to file a complaint with the WTO (World Organization) at any time.
So, how is the mainland's investigation of the most important barriers to Taiwan conducted? What kind of economic and political impact will the termination of the ECFA have on both sides of the strait?
The mainland's investigation of the mainland's first barrier to Taiwan is a formal legal procedure conducted in accordance with the provisions of the "Anti-dumping Regulations of the People's Republic of China" and the "Countervailing Regulations of the People's Republic of China" against Taiwan's restrictive measures against the mainland.
These restrictive measures include the implementation of dumping and subsidy investigations on some products from the mainland, the implementation of safeguard measures on some products from the mainland, the implementation of technical barriers on some products from the mainland, and the implementation of import licenses for some products from the mainland. These measures have seriously harmed the mainland's legitimate rights and interests, violated the relevant WTO rules, and violated the spirit and principles of the ECFA.
The mainland's ** barrier investigation against Taiwan was officially launched on January 12, 2022, and was originally scheduled to end on January 12, 2024, the day before the elections on the island of Taiwan. However, according to Taiwan media reports, the Ministry of Commerce of the mainland has given the results of the investigation in advance, determining that Taiwan's restrictive measures against the mainland constitute a barrier and will take corresponding measures. This news has aroused tension and uneasiness between the two sides of the strait and has also put the Taiwan authorities in a predicament.
The termination of the ECFA is one of the possible consequences of the mainland's investigation of the ** barrier against Taiwan, and it is also the most serious one.
The termination of the ECFA means that the foundation and framework of cross-strait economic cooperation will be destroyed, and cross-strait economic and trade exchanges will suffer major impacts and losses. Under the ECFA, either party may terminate the agreement with six months' notice to the other party.
If the mainland decides to terminate the ECFA, Taiwan will lose the following benefits and advantages: Taiwan will lose preferential access to the mainland market, including zero-tariff treatment for more than 800 products, as well as opening up and cooperation in the service industry, agriculture, financial and other fields. This will lead to a severe blow to Taiwan's exports and investment, affecting Taiwan's economic growth and employment.
Taiwan will lose its economic complementarity with the mainland, as well as its integration with the mainland's industrial and value chains. This will weaken Taiwan's competitiveness and innovation capabilities, and reduce Taiwan's position and influence in the international market. Taiwan will lose economic mutual trust and mutual benefit with the mainland, as well as its peaceful development and stable relations with the mainland. This will increase Taiwan's security risks and political pressure, and plunge Taiwan into greater isolation and predicament.
The Taiwan authorities have shown a tough and uncompromising attitude toward the mainland's investigation of the most important barriers and the termination of the ECFA.
The Taiwan authorities have denied that they have imposed restrictive measures on the mainland, holding that the mainland's investigation has no basis and no legal effect, and is a political interference and economic sanction against Taiwan. The Taiwan authorities have indicated that they will not accept any demands and conditions from the mainland, nor will they change their policies and stands.
The Taiwan authorities have declared that if the mainland terminates the ECFA, it will cause greater losses and impacts to the mainland, because Taiwan is an important partner and investment target of the mainland. The Taiwan authorities have indicated that they have the ability and confidence to cope with any challenges and difficulties and protect Taiwan's economy and people's livelihood.
The Taiwan authorities have threatened that if the mainland terminates the ECFA, it will file a complaint and lawsuit with the WTO, demanding that the WTO investigate and adjudicate on the mainland's behavior and safeguard Taiwan's legitimate rights and interests and international status. The Taiwan authorities have indicated that there is sufficient evidence and reasons to support their demands and claims.
The mainland's investigation of the most important barriers to Taiwan and the possible termination of the ECFA are an important turning point and a severe test for the cross-strait economy. For Taiwan, this is a crisis and an opportunity. The crisis lies in the fact that Taiwan will face huge economic losses and political difficulties, and may lose peace, development, and stable relations with the mainland, or even trigger even greater conflicts and crises.
The opportunity lies in the fact that Taiwan can take this opportunity to re-examine its own policies and stands, clearly understand the essence and trend of the '92 consensus, return to the common political foundation of the '92 consensus, seek dialogue and communication with the mainland, restore and deepen cross-strait economic cooperation and mutual benefit, and create favorable conditions and atmosphere for the peaceful reunification of the two sides of the strait. It is hoped that the Taiwan authorities will make the right choice wisely, not miss the historical opportunity, and not bring more suffering and disasters to the people on both sides of the strait.