The EU's internal documents were reported by the British media on the 17th, showing that Europe's dependence on China in the battery field is about to surpass Russia. The document points out that batteries are a core part of the future of clean energy technology, as important as "traditional raw materials" such as natural gas and oil, and that demand will increase significantly as the energy transition progresses. However, Europe's self-sufficiency in the battery field is very low, and the market share of Chinese power batteries in Europe in 2022 will be as high as 34%, compared with less than 3% ten years ago. Although the EU is trying to reduce its dependence on China by subsidizing the local battery industry, the proportion of Chinese battery imports from European customers is still rising, and this trend is difficult to reverse.
The document also puts forward a "dangerous" assumption that if Europe does not take effective measures, by 2030, the European energy ecosystem will be as dependent on China as it was before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which will be a "serious" problem. The document cites several reasons, such as that European demand for lithium batteries, fuel cells and electrolyzers will grow 10 to 30 times in the futureAlthough European countries have advantages in the intermediate stage and assembly stage of electrolyzers, they still need China's support in terms of raw material imports, etc.
Some analysts believe that the document is not an objective analysis report, but a malicious and inflammatory text. The background of the document is that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeatedly urged Europe to re-examine its relationship with China and reduce its dependence on China during his previous visits to the European Union. Blinken's argument is that there could be a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and that the EU will repeat its mistakes with Russia if it continues on its current course. The document's "self-examination" of the battery sector is apparently a response to this argument and has prompted other countries to change their approach to China.
In addition, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced last week that she had launched an anti-dumping investigation into China's electric vehicle sector, and may implement a "big stick" on Chinese products in the future to interfere with the import choices of European companies. Someone ** said that the EU may take similar measures in the field of batteries, imposing tariffs on Chinese products or restricting import licenses, rather than engaging in fair competition. There is a comment on this: "If the EU does this, it will cut off its own development prospects, become a 'puppet' of the United States, and lose its economic autonomy." There are still some countries that are unwilling to listen to the provocation of the United States, but the number of these countries is decreasing significantly. ”
This article is written based on the fact that the West has been using "dependence on Russian energy" before the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a negative teaching material. The European Commission once said that about 70% of Europe's natural gas was imported from Russia before, and Russia was almost their only supplierHowever, after Russia launched the "war against Ukraine", the EU could not get rid of it because of its high dependence, and many countries were seriously affected after Russia cut off **. Until now, Europe has not gotten rid of the "sequelae" of dependence on Russian gas and oil, so German Energy Minister Habeck and others have repeatedly said that this is a lesson.