The international grain market is trending globallyFood securitywithFarmersRevenue has a significant impact. In 2023, international food prices will continue to be the most abundant, mainly due to the abundance of food and weak demandGeopoliticsand other factors. However, as 2024 approaches, people are beginning to pay attention to the trend of the international food market, whether it will continue to rise or reboundThis paper will take the current situation and risks of the international food market as a starting point, analyze the possible changes of international food market, and combine various factors to analyze the international food price in 2024.
In 2023, the international grain market experienced a year of decline. ** Brazil and the United States have recorded food production and are expected to continue to increase in 2024. The decline in global consumption demand for cereals and oilseeds has led to an increase in stocks,**howeverWheatwithRiceThe inventory is still declining because of the weather andGeopoliticsand other factors have adversely affected the yield of these crops. In addition, geopolitical conflicts and globalEconomyUncertainty is also a significant risk to the market.
From the point of view of premium risk,CornThe probability is minimal,WheatThe most likely, whileSoybeansIn the middle. CornofProduction costsThe decline is expected to continue, but there may be more pressure. WheatofProduction costsIt is also expected to decline, but it will not necessarily lead to better profits. SoybeansofProduction costsA decline is expected, but planting margins are lower due to bumper yieldsFarmers's profitability is likely to be on the neutral side.
In 2024, thoughCornofProduction costsThere is a possibility of a decline, but more pressure is expected**. Fertilizer input costs are returning to historical averages, but the high volatility of the nitrogen fertilizer market may still affect cost changes. Herbicides, as the main expenditure item of plant protection,** are relatively stable, but it is still necessary to pay attention to the changes in the situation. AlthoughCornIt is expected to be sufficient, but due to weak market demand, the downward pressure is greater.
withCornSimilar, expected in 2024WheatofProduction costsIt will be driven down by the decline in the cost of fertilizers. Although the cost of crop protection has increased, it has been smaller. WheatThe inventory continues to decline, which may play a supporting role. Therefore,WheatThe performance may be better thanCornwithSoybeans
Over the past few years,SoybeansofProduction costsContinued increases, especially in the cost of fertilizers and crop protection. However, in 2024,SoybeansofProduction costsIt is expected to decline. Fertilizer costs will return to historical averages, and crop protection costs are likely to increase slightly. While costs have decreased, growing margins are likely to still fall, especially in BrazilFarmersChallenges that may come with a good yield. However, globallySoybeans**Sufficient,** and ** risks coexist,Farmers's profitability is likely to be on the neutral side.
Based on the above analysis, the operating trend of the international grain market is expected to pick up in 2024, but the degree of rise and fall may vary depending on different crops. CornThere may be more pressureWheat**Probably relatively stable and promising**,Soybeans**May show a strong neutral trend. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the relationship between supply and demandGeopoliticsfactors and globalEconomyThe impact of uncertainty on the market. ForFarmersImproving the profitability of growing grains may still be challenging.