American think tankJordan Cohen, a defense and foreign policy analyst at the "Cato Institute", noted, althoughAmerican HawkThe faction has been constantly agitating against Iran with inflammatory rhetoric"Massive retaliation", but in reality, the United States cannot easily win in the face of Iran. Cohen argues that the U.S. will either engage in naval and air warfare or a ground invasion, but both will come at a heavy cost. In terms of naval and air warfare, Iran has been strengthening its defenses, with advanced air defense systems, cruise and anti-aircraft missiles, and a large number of themBallistic missiles, mines and drones, so to completely destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities, the United States may need to use 120k people. In terms of a ground invasion, Cohen argues that it is even more unrealistic because of the huge cost involved, with the assessment showing that any plan to invade Iran would require 1.6 millionU.S. military。Cohen said that Iran will not be passively beaten, and they will use anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile protectionPersian Gulfcoastline, and could block the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a global economic and energy crisis. Therefore, Cohen believes that trying to win an easy victory over Iran is like an illusion.
In recent times, there have been frequent attacks by Iran and its controlled affiliatesMiddle EastofU.S. militarygoals, which leadsAmerican Hawkfaction demanded massive retaliation against Iran. However, Biden rejected the aggressive bombing package for fear of triggering a wider conflict. Against this backdrop, the research report serves two purposes: first, to decompress Biden**, who has been criticized for refusing to retaliate on Iran on a massive scale;The second is to send a message to the hawks that Iran is not so easy to deal with.
Frequent attacks by Iran and the armed forces under its controlMiddle EastofU.S. militaryGoals, this action stimulatedAmerican Hawkpie, triggeredMiddle EastThe situation is tense. The research report argues that this roundIsraeli-Palestinian conflictRussia, Russia may be the boss behind the scenes, Iran is the middleman, and Hamas,Allahand the Houthis are the construction parties. Iranian attackMiddle EastU.S. militaryIt helps to increase tensions, which in turn puts pressure on the United States to seek a negotiated solution with Russia in order to alleviate itMiddle Easttensions.
AgainstMiddle Easttensions in the situation and Iranian attacksU.S. militaryThe target behavior, the solution should be achieved through dialogue and negotiation. Cohen believes that the United States should engage in direct dialogue with Iran to resolve differences and tensions between the two sides. He also stressed that resolving the issue through dialogue does not mean that the United States will sit idly by and watch Iran's provocations, but that dialogue can reduce tensions and avoid escalation of the conflictCritical
In summary,American HawkThe threat of the party to Iran is actually facing a real dilemmaAmerican HawkThere are great difficulties and risks associated with the large-scale retaliation against Iran. AgainstMiddle EastTensions and Iranian attacksU.S. militaryThe target behaviour and the solution should be achieved through dialogue and negotiation in order to reduce tensions and avoid escalation of conflicts.