Reference News Network on December 20** The US "Foreign Policy" magazine ** published an article entitled "Biden's Foreign Policy in 2023 Stumbles and Mistakes Again and Again" on December 15by Emma Ashford and Matthew Kronig. The following is an excerpt from the full text:
We have a lot of controversy to resolve this year: the intense negotiations between the White House and congressional Republicans over Ukraine aid and the Gaza Gaza Grand** are just a few examples.
It's almost hard to believe that the headline of our column last December was "Will 2023 Be Peacer Than 2022?".》
The China policy is a roller coaster.
Matthew Kronig: I think the answer to last year's question is undoubtedly "no". The Russia-Ukraine conflict is still raging. I believe that this time last year, neither of us expected a major war between Israel and Hamas.
Emma Ashford: At the end of the year, we were stuck in the Middle East and we didn't turn our focus to ChinaIt's like a "groundhog day" in foreign policy.
CM: What do you think is the most important foreign policy event for 2023?
A: There are too many to choose. It's easy to think of the war in Gaza — a reminder to everyone that the thorny issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict cannot be hidden. But I also think that Biden's rollercoaster China policy is worth paying attention to. In early 2023, Jack Sullivan, an assistant for affairs, told an audience at the Brookings Institution that the U.S. would use export controls and new economic sanctions to find ways to limit China's access to high-level technologyBy the end of the year, the leaders of the two countries met in California in an attempt to ease tensions between the two countries. The situation is confusing. The best explanation for this is to realize that you have overdone it and come back to make amends.
The U.S. Congress has just unveiled the recommendations of its select committee on what strategy to pursue toward China: recommending economic measures to begin decoupling the U.S.-China economy. The most radical proposal might be to raise tariffs on Chinese goods that violate WTO rules, but many other measures — such as censoring investment or restricting technology transfer — are also quite draconian. If Congress enshrines these proposals into law, relations between the two countries will fall back into a vicious circle next year.
The Middle East remains strategically important.
CD: If I had to choose, I think the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7 and the subsequent Israeli war in Gaza are the most noteworthy international events in 2023. As you said, for years, Washington has wanted to shift its focus more from the Middle East to the "Indo-Pacific." For a while, that seemed to be the case. The east wind is calm. At this time last year, the biggest debate was whether the United States and the free world could contend with Russia and China at the same time.
The October 7 attacks are a reminder that the Middle East remains an important geostrategic region that Washington and its allies cannot ignore. It also reminds us that the "war on terror" is not over, and may never even be. Terrorism may not be as important as fighting World War III with China or Russia, but it is still an attractive tactic for weaker groups with extreme ideologies, and it is likely to remain around for decades to come.
A: My interpretation of the October 7 attacks is a little different. From the perspective of U.S. interests, the incident does not reinforce the region's geostrategic significance, which has been more focused on oil and specific security issues. But the attack is a reminder that no matter how much the United States and even Arab countries want to ignore the Palestinian issue and focus instead on the anti-China or anti-Iranian coalition, the problem will not go away unless it is resolved in some way.
CK: If the White House was willing to outsource this issue to its partner Israel, it might not be as important. But that's not going to happen. On the contrary, the conflict is draining a lot of energy from the top: Biden is trying to micromanage the war from the Oval Office, and in large part for domestic political reasons.
But another important reason is the role played by Iran. Tehran has long supported Hamas. At the moment, Iran regularly launches ** attacks on US troops in the region. According to the Pentagon, the "sprint time" for Iran to develop a nuclear bomb is now measured in days.
The outbreak of new conflicts in the Middle East shows that the United States and its allies need to develop a strategy to deal with the "Indo-Pacific," Europe, and the Middle East simultaneously.
The Ukrainian impasse is difficult to break.
AR: You're right about one thing: 2023 shows how inadequate the United States is. The United States wants to focus on China, but it spends a lot of political capital and energy on other conflicts. It is worth noting that we have not yet mentioned Ukraine. 2023 seems to be the year that the conflict in Ukraine is starting to lose its appeal among Western voters and politicians, who are mostly trying to find a politically acceptable way out – or at least lower the temperature of this conflict.
K: Ukraine's stagnation is a big event this year. We were right in our year-end column last year, and the conflict does continue into 2023. But at this time last year, everyone was very optimistic about the upcoming spring**.
A: This should probably be a sign that progress is not good: the spring offensive did not begin until June, and it was not over until December.
K: Right. Ukraine has achieved some results, but progress has been slow, small and difficult. Russia was able to resist stubbornly with stronger fortifications. Both sides are using new technologies such as drones to better see the battlefield and thwart attacks, leading some to speculate about new models of warfare in the 21st century.
A growing number of analysts and politicians suspect that there is nothing that can be done to break the impasse and make the situation favorable for Ukraine.
A: Many Western analysts are now going too far in the opposite direction, believing that the impasse will always exist. There is no harm in starting a dialogue with Russia now. I'm inclined to think that a peace deal before the United States in 2024 is very unlikely, but even the establishment of communication channels is a start.
I wonder if in 2024 Ukraine will be further ignored by the West's agenda, or will there be a turnaround?
CD: European support for Ukraine remains strong. The new speaker of the US House of Representatives, Republican Mike Johnson, has also supported Ukraine more than many expected. His criticism of Biden revolves around the lack of a clear strategy to win. So far, he has been able to retain the support of suspected Ukrainian Republicans, but that may not last. (Compiled by Zhao Feifei).