The weather conditions in this winter can really be said to be "twists and turns", and it is not an exaggeration to describe it as "a wave is not flat, and a wave is rising again".
Why?
Because it has just been affected by the strongest cold wave this year, many places have ushered in a large cooling and snowfall, especially in some places in the north, not only the temperature has refreshed the new low in recent years, but the snowfall is also the largest.
Especially in Weihai and other areas in Shandong, due to the influence of cold snow, the heavy snow continued to fall for several days and nights, and the snow depth reached more than 70 centimeters, which has set a new local record.
But at the beginning of this week, another round of strong cold air is coming, and under its influence, the temperature in many places in our country will continue to refresh the new low in the second half of the year. What the hell is going on?Will this year be a "warm winter"?
According to the forecast released by the ** Meteorological Observatory, from the day of the winter solstice solar term on December 22 to 20 o'clock on the 24th, it is expected that in the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia, northern Shaanxi, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai and most of the southern regions, the daily minimum temperature or average temperature will be more than 5 lower than that of the same period in history.
Among them, in the central part of Inner Mongolia, northern Shaanxi, Liaoning, North China, the central and eastern part of Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, the central and eastern part of South China, and the eastern part of Guizhou, some areas will be more than 7 lower than the same period, and the minimum temperature 0 line will be located in the southern part of Guizhou to the northern part of South China. It can be seen that the range of cooling this time is very wide, and the cooling range is still relatively large.
In particular, it is worth mentioning that this has just passed the winter solstice solar term, according to the "number nine" method of the ancestors, "1929 does not shoot, 3949 walks on the ice", that is, in.
Three. The time of the ninth and fourth nine is the coldest, because this time corresponds to the small cold and big cold in the 24 solar terms. This is the coldest time of the year, and the snowfall is more concentrated.
But this year's situation is "very different" from previous years, before the winter solstice, from the south to the north, from the west to the east have cooled, and there is snowfall in many places in the north, it can be seen that it is colder than in previous years, the snow also comes early, and the intensity of the snow is also larger. This is all because it has been affected by several waves of cold air southward in the near future, which not only makes some netizens begin to question: Is this year still a "warm winter"?
It is estimated that many netizens and friends should be more profound about this, that is, at the beginning of winter this year, some experts conducted a ** on the weather conditions of this winter: the temperature in most parts of China this winter will be close to the same period of the year or high, the first winter (December 2023) is warmer, and the latter winter (January to February 2024) is close to the normal year, and there is a high probability of a warm winter in the north.
Especially at the beginning of winter, the temperature in many places is indeed higher than in previous years, and it was later determined that a moderate-intensity El Niño event has formed, with moderate intensity, the type is eastern, and will last until next spring, which makes some netizens believe in the warm winter.
But now the cold air has moved south several times in succession, which makes some people suspicious of this. In fact, every year on the "cold winter" or "warm winter" is a hot topic that people pay attention to in winter, and there are many such methods in the folk, such as "cold or not, look at the beginning of winter", "winter solstice head, freeze to death old cows, winter solstice, single clothes for winter" ......
Since there were no such advanced instruments to improve the weather in the past, people often predicted the climate through folk agricultural proverbs in order to arrange agricultural affairs reasonably. In the words of the older generation, these are the results of the long-term evolution of the ancestors' agricultural history, and they are the experience of the ancestors.
But are these statements really accurate?It is estimated that many people will also have doubts, especially since the current climate has changed a lot from the past.
Here it is necessary for us to clarify a concept, that is, what is a cold winter and a warm winter. Cold winter, warm winter, and cold, warm winter are two different concepts.
For example, a warmer winter means that the average winter temperature is higher than normal for the same period of the year. According to the national standard, the current average annual temperature is the 30-year average from 1991 to 2020. However, the "warm winter" is the average winter temperature is higher than the average temperature of the past 30 years, reaching 05 or more.
Therefore, it is very clear that warm and cold winters are not judged by the temporary cold and warm, but by the cold and warm conditions of the whole winter. In other words, we can't just rely on the cold wave that has just started in winter, or the cold for a while, to conclude that this year will be cold. It was still relatively warm in the early stage, which was a warm winter
What's more, the ancestors also said that "there is one volt in Sanjiu, and there is one nineteen in Sanfu", which means that even in the coldest Sanjiu days, there are a few days that are warm. And on the hot dog days, not all of them are very hot, and there are a few days that are cooler.
What's more, China's climate types are complex and diverse, and there are many influencing factors. Even in the cold winter (cold winter), there will be a brief warm-up;Similarly, during the warm winter months (warm winters), there will be brief periods of severe cold.
Whether it's a warm or cold winter, the scene of cold waves and snow will always come as scheduled. Therefore, it is too early to assert that this year is a cold winter.
However, judging from the current situation, even if a moderate El Niño event is formed, there will still be periodic cold air activity this winter. Usually in years with El Niño, the probability of extreme weather increases.
Therefore, we need to pay close attention to weather forecasts and warnings, and prepare in advance, so as to effectively prevent the adverse impact of periodic low temperature rain and snow weather processes.