1. Foreign investors are extremely optimistic about 2024: China's economic recovery has stabilized, and some foreign investors have maintained a high allocation to A-shares.
Some sovereign wealth** such as Saudi Arabia have also gradually entered China's A** market. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has also approved a number of foreign-funded ** companies to enter the domestic business of China's capital market, and allowed foreigners with permanent residency in China to open accounts in China and invest in China's ** market. Although some funds have been withdrawn from Hong Kong and the mainland, this does not affect the healthy development of China's A** market. Free access to the capital market is their legitimate right and a reflection of the maturity of the capital market.
Second, in fact, the impact of centralized procurement on the pharmaceutical industry has weakened significantly in recent years.
For pharmaceutical companies, when they first implement centralized procurement, their performance growth will be seriously affected, but for enterprises with strong R&D capabilities and rich products, they will begin to recover good growth in the second and third years. In addition, with the end of the Fed's rate hikes and the gradual improvement in liquidity, the need to correct excesses has been highlighted at recent meetings. Cracking down on medical corruption is essentially to promote the development of the pharmaceutical industry.
The need for long-term medical care remains. Nowadays, the population is seriously aging, and people are living longer than before. However, as we age, getting sick and taking medication is inevitable. The demand for medical supplies will continue to grow, whether it is drugs, consumables, equipment or diagnosis and treatment needs, it still has strong demand rigidity characteristics. Driven by factors such as the continuous improvement of the industry's innovation ability and the improvement of the medical insurance system, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to grow rapidly.
3. Kweichow Moutai, the "king of stocks", is expected to have an annual revenue of nearly 150 billion yuan and a net profit increase of more than 17%.
Net profit increased by more than 17%, indicating that Kweichow Moutai's sales volume and endogenous growth rate are relatively weak. Although limited by production capacity, Kweichow Moutai is still out of reach whether it is physical spirits or inventory, but from another point of view, Kweichow Moutai is the demand of middle-aged and elderly people. It brings together nearly a hundred years of patriotic feelings, treating Kweichow Moutai as a collector's item rather than a consumer product. With lifestyle changes, there will be a growing demand for spirits among young people. However, it is difficult to say how long Kweichow Moutai can maintain this sentiment. It is difficult to say whether the status of Kweichow Moutai will be shaken in the future.
On December 20, Kweichow Moutai paid a total cash dividend of 24 billion yuan, with a cash dividend of 19 per share11 yuan, among the best in the entire A** field. If the share price of Kweichow Moutai is ** in the future, even if the patriotism is not so full, it can still be maintained. Such a high dividend is also a good thing. At least the income is stable and worth it.
Fourth, the ground shakes. Will the market be ** and then ** again throughout the year?
From today's point of view, in 2024, whether it is political (a series of measures to promote development emerge one after another, and a series of favorable measures will be implemented in 2024) or the external environment (the Federal Reserve is about to start the interest rate cut cycle), the future dollar index will be above 100 points (not much), but the domestic real estate and new energy bubbles have not yet been eliminated, the local fiscal is tight, and the debt pressure is already heavy. This will inevitably make the economic recovery fragile and complex. CPI and PPI are still at a low level, and the performance of listed companies is growing slowly.