The currency war has been going on for 40 years, and Japan is still paying the price as the defeated side. Back in 1995, the GDP gap between Japan and the United States was only slightly more than $2,000 billion, and Japan'sEconomyAt one point, the growth rate surpassed that of the United States, leading to the belief that Japan would surpass it as a world power. However, the reality today is unexpected, and the GDP of the United States has soared to 2574 trillion US dollars, while Japan's GDP is only 4$23 trillion, and down from 1995. It is clear from the chart of Japan's GDP that 1995 was a high point, followed by a clear ** in the following years, plus the early 90sAsset bubblesShattered, JapanEconomyIt has entered a downturn of nearly 30 years.
However, in recent years,Japanese YenIt fell into a downward trend again. The Fed continuesHike rateSince then, the currencies of all countries have appeared**, but the most affected is stillJapanese Yen。This year,Japanese YenAgain sharply **, with a maximum drop of more than 15%, falling to 151Exchange rate。It seems that it can smell that the dollar is about to dominate a harvest. This means:Japanese YenLost this currency war again.
However, it is surprising that Japan, which is in the midst of a monetary defeat, actually did so"God-like"of the operation. AlthoughJapanese YenThe Bank of Japan has been depreciating for three consecutive monthsU.S. Treasuries。Until September, the Bank of Japan began to throw 28.5 billionU.S. Treasuries。But even more suspicious is that in September, official data showed that Japan**U.S. Treasuriesof the net amounted to about $20 billion. Although the central bank sold $28.5 billion, the purchase of ordinary institutions and the public could be as high as $48.5 billion. This situation makes people wonder if the Japanese are more willing to cooperate with the dollar harvest?However, it is worth noting that recent data shows that JapanEconomyScientist **, the Bank of Japan will be in the next yearHike rate。If Japan's tightening of monetary policy coexists with the U.S. interest rate cut, this will be Japan's best chance to fight back in a currency war. OnceHike rate, will be rightJapanese YenConstituted a positive support, coupled with the fact that the Fed may have to cut interest rates by 100 basis points next year, the dollar index may be fast**, thenThe Japanese yen against the US dollarwill appreciate even more.
In general, in years of currency wars, JapanEconomyIt has been in the doldrums, while the dollar has grown steadily. However, Japan did not give up the opportunity to fight back. Now, a series of moves by the Bank of Japan show that they are actively responding to the currency war, trying to reverse itJapanese Yendepreciation trend. JapaneseHike ratePolicy and U.S. interest rate cut expectations may provide an opportunity for Japan to fight back and reshapeEconomyPattern.
Japan was once a defeated country in World War II, after the warEconomyIt is in a state of recession, and everything is waiting to be rebuilt. However, with the deliberate help of the United States, Japan'sEconomytook off and threatened the position of the United States in the 80s. It is because of JapanEconomyThe rapid development of the United States, the excuse of the United StatesJapanese YenThe depreciation caused an imbalance between Japan and the United States, and Japan was asked to signThe Plaza Accordand makeJapanese YenSignificant appreciation. This was the beginning of the currency wars 40 years ago.
Due toJapanese YenThe value of Japan's various assets has also appreciated rapidly, forming a hugeAsset bubbles。However, in the early 90s, thisAsset bubblesEventually, the property market andCrashes one after another, leading to the wholeEconomyGo to pieces. In the decades that followed, JapanEconomyIt has been in recession and downturn, and it is extremely dependent on exportsEconomyThe structure is unbalanced and it loses its competitiveness.
This oneEconomyThe recession has not only affected Japan's domesticEconomyand people's livelihood, but also to the wholeworld economyThe shock was done. JapaneseEconomyThe recession has affected Asia and the worldEconomyIncrease. And over time, JapanEconomyIt is becoming increasingly difficult to recover in the long termNegative growthIt also made Japan lose its competitiveness andInternationalInfluence. If nothing else, Japan may be dominated by the dollar again, which is a heavy blow to Japan that has paid the price.
The Bank of Japan's move andEconomyThe scientist's ** reveals a key question: Does Japan have a chance to fight back in a currency war?Even so, the importance of strategy and reform must not be overlooked. Japan needs to undertake further structural reforms to reduce its dependence on exports and boost domestic consumption and domestic demand. In addition, it is also important for Japan to strengthen its innovation capabilities and technological leadership and improve its industrial competitivenessEconomyRevive and get rid of the long-termNegative growthThe key to the dilemma.
On the other hand, the implications behind currency wars are not limited toEconomyIt also involves political, social and livelihood aspects. InEconomyIn the context of globalization, currency wars between countries will undoubtedly affect the worldEconomyMake a significant impact and challenge. Therefore, countries should cooperate and strengthen communication, find ways to achieve win-win results, and avoid conflicts of interestEconomyUnrest.
Finally, we have to admit that 40 years of currency wars have caused quite a fewEconomyand impact. And for a country like Japan, it has gone through a tortuous course of defeat and revival, althoughEconomyIt has been a long downturn, but the Japanese have persevered in the face of hardship with tenacity and creativity. In any case, we look forward to welcoming Japan in the futureEconomyof recovery and prosperity for the worldEconomyto make a positive contribution to the development. In these uncertain times, actively responding to and adapting to change is an important issue for every country to think about.