At present, the national economic policy is clear, and the multi-sector support for real estate recovery is clear, driving the enthusiasm for capital investmentupmode, especially iron ore ** pulled againupTouching the 980 high, the cost side support is strong, the spot market operation sentiment is driven, and the market is slightly probedup, the terminal replenishment has a large amount, what is the trend of steel in the later stage?Read on....
The spot market fell steadily
From December 1stBuilding materials13 out of 24 marketsup10-20 yuan ton, rebar 20mmHRB400E average **4029 yuan ton, compared with the previous trading day**up8 yuan ton;
Hot rolls15 out of 24 marketsup10-30 yuan ton, 4The average of 75 hot-rolled coils was 4019 yuan tons, compared with the previous trading dayup13 yuan ton;
Medium and heavy plates9 out of 23 marketsup10-20 yuan ton, 14-20mm general medium plate average **4039 yuan ton, compared with the previous trading day**up2 yuan ton.
On December 1, the domestic steel market was mainly strong, and the ex-factory price of Tangshan Qian'anpu billet was stable at 3,630 yuan including tax. From the perspective of transactions, the market sentiment has improved, the transaction of low-level resources is acceptable, and most cities have been tentative**.
On December 1, the main force of the snail **, the price was 3923, up 095%, under the double two-way of DIF and DEA, the RSI three-line indicator is located at 50-55, which runs between the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger band.
On December 1, three steel mills raised the ex-factory price of construction steel by 20-50 yuan ton, and one lowered the ex-factory price by 10 yuan ton.
** Hold red up
On December 1, the main force of black rebarup37, closed at 3923,upWidth 095%；Hot coil workhorseup41, closed at 4025,upWidth 103%；The main force of coking coalup55, closed at 21165，upWidth 267%；Coke workhorseup39.5, closed at 2685,upWidth 151%；Iron oreup19, closed at 9755，upWidth 199%。
Influencing factors of the steel market
01. A number of banks convened a meeting of private real estate enterprises
After the news that the relevant regulators are drawing up a "white list" of 50 real estate enterprise financing, the market is paying more and more attention to the financing situation of real estate enterprises. Recently, since the beginning of Zheshang Bank, the Construction Bank and the Bank of Communications have convened real estate enterprises to hold a symposium, and Guangfa Bank has convened 6 private real estate enterprises to hold a meeting today, and the participating enterprises are all private enterprises, namely New Hope, Agile, Country Garden, Xincheng, Wanda, and Wanhua. At the meeting, real estate companies put forward their own demands, and at the same time, China Guangfa Bank also stated that it would support the best of each real estate company.
With the clear signal of the state's support for real estate, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank and other departments have actively introduced various macro favorable policies, from a series of measures, the financing of private real estate enterprises is expected to receive strong support or will be the general trend, driving market capital investment into real estate enterprises, helping real estate enterprises to solve the difficulties of capital operation, and boosting residents' confidence in buying and investing in real estateDrive the economy to recover its vitality, increase the demand for steel, and benefit the trend of steel.
02. Caixin manufacturing PMI is the highest in three months
In November 2023, Caixin China's manufacturing PMI recorded 507, up 1 from October2 percentage points, back to the expansion range, a three-month high.
On November 30, China's manufacturing industry released PMI data slightly more than expectedDecline, and the PMI data released by Caixin Manufacturing on December 1 coincided with the expansion range, reflecting the good development of small, medium and micro manufacturing enterprisesDrive more steel consumption, increase steel demand, and good steel trends.
03. Coke started the third round of increases
At present, there is a shortage of raw coal, and the raw coal ** is almost the same as coke**, and coking enterprises continue to lose money. For the normal production of coking enterprises, friendly cooperation with steel mill friendsInner Mongolia Yuantong Coal Chemical Group Co., Ltd. has decided that from 0:00 on December 1, 2023, the national standard secondary coke and coke sites will be increased by 100 yuan per ton respectively.
With the occurrence of a number of production accidents in coal mines in Shanxi Province, many departments have strengthened the supervision of coal mine safety production, and many coal mines in Luliang have reduced productionDiscontinued, November raw coal production month-on-monthDecline, coking coal ** amountDecline, and the demand for heating and steel enterprises in winter is large, and coking coal continues to pullup, the cost support is strong, and the coke has also opened the third round of raisingup, the overall trend is good for steel.
Integrated perspectives
The state's multi-departmental policies to support economic development have been gradually implemented, and financial services such as guaranteed delivery of buildings, urban village transformation, and dual-use have supported the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, and market investment is expected to further heat up, driving the operating sentiment of businesses. At the same time, in terms of industry, since 8 o'clock on December 2, 2023, Shijiazhuang City and Xingtai City have launched a heavy pollution weather-level emergency response, and the lifting time will be notified separately, and the production of steel enterprises will be affected, and the market will look at itupSentiment boosted, today's steel market ** just as the analysts of the China Steel Network Information Research Institute ** consistent, iron ore and bifocal strong pullup, the cost side support is strong, and the steel enterprises continue to push up and buyupDon't buy itfallsUnder the psychological effect, the downstream terminal demand has been released, the speculative replenishment of merchants has increased, and the inventory of low inventory can be replenished in an appropriate amountIt is expected that tomorrow's steel will run steadily in a rising operation, with a range of 10-30 yuan tons.
The latest December 1 national steel ***
On December 1, the steel **upRun. period on steelup, the market atmosphere has improved, the first business is shipping at a high price, and Inner Mongolia has opened the third round of mentionup, the cost push is strengthened,It is expected that tomorrow's steel ** will be strong and finished.
Rebar:On December 1, the average price of 20mm** seismic rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 4,060 yuan ton, 8 yuan ton compared with the previous trading day. In the short term, with the recovery of steel mills' profits in the near future, the production enthusiasm of steel mills has increasedAt the same time, with weaker demand in the north, inventories rebounded this week. Recently, the overall macro sentiment is stable, but the raw material fluctuations are repeated, and the pressure on the thread fundamentals is gradually increasing, so it is expected that the domestic construction steel will continue to run next week.
Building materials on December 1**: slightly**
Today's building materials ** slightlyup, amplitude 10-20. The snail is red, the profits of steel mills have expanded, the output has increased slightly, the market pressure has increased, and the recent fluctuations in raw materials have been frequent, which has a certain impact on the spot market. It is expected that tomorrow's construction steel will be strong or maintained.
Hot rolled on December 1**: strong operation
Today, the national hot rolling is running strongly, with a range of 10-30. Black *** onup, market **upAt present, the inventory of the first merchant is not much, and the East China market is large in DecemberupMainstream collarup, the market is relatively moderate. Short-term hot-rolled coil** or will** be stronger.
Cold-rolled on December 1**: Steady rise
Today, the country's cold rolling is stableup, amplitude 30. IssuesupRed, the market transaction will not improve significantly, the fundamentals of supply and demand have weakened, the market is mainly guided by macro policies, the short-term fundamentals are weaker, and there is cost supportShort-term cold rolling** or remain high**.
December 1 plate **: stable and strong
Today, the national medium plate is stable and strong, with a range of 10-20. Steel mills have a demand for supplementary raw materials and a strong demand for coal in the heating season, and the cost side is high**. The plate inventory remains destocked, the demand is resilient, and it is difficult to decline sharply in the short term. It is expected that tomorrow's medium and heavy plates will remain stable and strong.
December 1 hot-rolled strip**: strong operation
Today, the national hot-rolled strip is running strongly, with an amplitude of 10-20. The snail was red, and Shanxi Inner Mongolia opened the third round of mentionupAt present, although the inventory level is low and the contradiction between supply and demand is not sharp, the price is high, and they are mainly shipped. The economic work conference will be held in DecemberIt is expected that the strip** may remain resilient** in the short term.
On December 1, large and medium-sized materials**: Maintain stability and rise
Today, the country's large and medium-sized materials are stableup, amplitude 10-20. Tangshan billet steel mill resumed production, and continued to be independentDiscontinuedThis week, the operating rate and utilization rate have risen, the inventory of steel mills is high, the pressure of destocking still exists, and the current raw materials are still supporting the current oneIt is expected that the profile will continue to rise tomorrow.
December 1 welded pipe**: stable operation
Today, the national welded pipe ** is running steadily. At present, the order situation of pipe factories tends to be stable, the willingness to reduce production in the short term is not strong, and the inventory of raw materials has increased month-on-month. The market is still looking forward to the market outlook as a whole, and the overall willingness to raise prices is strong. The black series is fully closedup, showing ** stable support below,It is expected that the pipe will continue to rise steadily tomorrow.
Raw fuel daily***
Iron oreOn December 1, the mainstream varieties of iron ore imported from Shandong port were slightly smaller, with a total of 5-10 yuan of wet tons. **Business** enthusiasm is average, mostly with the market, as of now there are fewer spot transactions;The sentiment of the market inquiry in the far month is average, and the transaction is dominated by PB powder;In terms of buying, steel mills in the region mainly replenish the warehouse on demand, and there are fewer inquiries near the weekend. At present, the mainstream of PB powder is 990-995;The main stream of card powder is 1085-1090;The mainstream of Jinbuba powder is 955-960;Newman block mainstream in 1160-1165. (Unit: Yuan wet ton).
Scrap:On December 1, the scrap steel market was mainly running steadily. The average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2,519 yuan, which was flat compared with the price of the previous trading day. The overall arrival volume of steel mills is at a high level in the middle and upper levels, close to the off-season winter storage, low-storage steel mills in some regions in the north have replenishment needs, and the capacity utilization rate and operating rate of electric furnaces have grown steadily, and the cost-effective advantages of scrap steel compared with molten iron have been further expanded, and the scrap steel support has been consolidated, but more is still holding a wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the national scrap steel will be adjusted next week.
Coke:On December 1, some coke enterprises in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia proposed a third round of price increases for coke. At present, the raw material ** is still at a high level, the downstream demand is strong, the coal mine transaction is good, and the safety inspection and high demand make the coal price maintain a high expectation in the near future. The production of hot metal decreased slightly, which had little impact on coke procurement. Recently, the domestic steel market has been small, the transaction is not good, and the steel mills have a certain resistance to the continued use of raw materials.
Steel market***
This week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 8763%, down 033 percentage points;The average capacity utilization rate of 87 independent EAF steel mills was 6397%, an increase of 053 percentage points.
This Friday, the output of large varieties of steel continued to rise, while the demand in the off-season shrank, resulting in the rebound of steel mill inventories. At the same time, Shanxi's coking coal is tight, the coal and coke market has been running strongly in the near future, and the steel cost has strengthened the support for steel prices. It is expected that steel demand will continue to be weak in December, and the number of steel mills may gradually increase in terms of maintenance and production reduction.
Looking forward to the later period, the steel market may gradually shift from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, and the cost is still running at a high levelSteel prices may continue to run first, and there is little room for rise and fall.