(This article was first published on Knowledge Planet on the 12th and 10th).
Today let's talk about "first establish and then break".
In the previous analysis of the Politburo meeting, in fact, this sentence can be ignored, because it is not in my impression, with the average cognition of our planet, it should not be difficult to understand the sentence "seek progress in stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break", but from the later situation, the friends are indeed a little unconfident.
So today I'm going to make a patch and make up this part of the analysis for you.
The core concept of the expression "seeking progress while maintaining stability and promoting stability through progress" lies in emphasizing the dialectical relationship between development and stability.
This means seeking new impetus and new paths for economic and social development on the basis of maintaining social and political stability
At the same time, through continuous development and progress, the stability of society will be consolidated and enhanced.
Many people may think that this is a new formulation at this ZZJ meeting, but after in-depth study of relevant materials, it is found that this expression has actually been proposed as early as March 2022.
Its original intention was mainly to refer to the development strategy of the new energy industry.
That is, in the context of the traditional energy industry is still dominant, priority should be given to the development and establishment of new energy alternative industries, and a new economic growth point and social development direction will be formed
Then, on this basis, the old industry model that relies on traditional energy should be phased out and "broken" to achieve the optimization and upgrading of the energy structure and industrial structure.
However, judging from the statement of this Politburo meeting, this "first establish and then break" obviously carries more connotations.
This statement is no longer limited to the replacement of the old and new energy supply systems, but also to indicate that the economic development engine will be switched through policy guidance to achieve the overall transformation and upgrading of China's economy.
"Seeking progress while maintaining stability" is a common phrase in China's economic policy, which emphasizes the pursuit of sustained progress and development while maintaining economic stability.
At the heart of this strategy is to ensure the continuity and stability of the current economic development framework in order to avoid large fluctuations and uncertainties. It emphasizes the search for new growth points and development momentum on the basis of stability.
The formulation of "seeking stability through progress" further clarifies that problems in development need to be resolved in the process of development.
Only through continuous development and innovation can we solve the existing economic problems and realize the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure. This thinking emphasizes a dynamic balance and problem-oriented approach to development, rather than simply pursuing growth at speed and scale.
The strategy of "first establish and then break" clarifies the path and sequence of transformation.
In this process, it is first necessary to establish a new economic development engine, which may include new energy, high-tech industries, service industries and other emerging fields.
Only when the new engine of development is stable and able to support the national economy can the traditional economic model based on high debt, high energy consumption and low efficiency be phased out and replaced.
In this process, capital-intensive industries, such as real estate and urban infrastructure investment and relatively inefficient finance, are likely to remain pillar industries for some time.
These industries will continue to maintain their important position in the economy, with local refinement and fine-tuning as necessary. China's economic transformation will be a gradual and orderly process, not a one-off, drastic change.
So what about the old industries that have been abandoned, and the new "engines" of economic development that need to be established?
In the long run, the high-tech industry is undoubtedly the core driving force for economic growth, which has been deeply discussed in the book "Industry and Civilization" that I recommended earlier.
The book argues that the increase in energy density is not only a sign of technological progress, but also a field with huge potential business opportunities, and that technology industrialization and inclusiveness are the keys to building a new economic engine.
However, the direction of this driving force is accompanied by significant uncertainty, the timeline of the industry jump is difficult, and the specific industry breakthrough point is also uncertain.
Judging from the current industrial structure, there is no technology that can independently assume the heavy responsibility of the new economic development engine.
Observing the current industrial development status, taking the new energy industry as an example, although it has been widely discussed, the actual industrial implementation still faces many challenges. For example, if it is really profitable to set up charging piles, why haven't we seen charging piles spread in parking lots across the country?
This exposes a practical problem, in the current economic environment, the development potential of the new energy industry is not enough to meet the existing economic development needs.
Therefore, simply waiting for technological progress to ignite the engine of economic growth is fraught with variables.
In view of this, we need to build a new engine of economic development that is fast, convenient, effective and effective in the short term, and the concept of "financial power" is likely to be the best candidate for this engine.
As the blood of the modern economic system, finance has the potential to activate other industries, and through financial innovation and the promotion of financial services, it is expected to inject new vitality into China's economic development, promote the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure, and ensure the country's leading position in the global economic competition.
In fact, in several important meetings held recently,"Financial powerhouse"The word appears frequently.
This not only reflects the importance that policymakers attach to this issue, but also shows their firm determination and clear attitude.
For a long time, the financial industry has been largely regarded as a plug-in to the real economy, and its main function is to provide financial support for economic development.
However, this over-emphasis on the financing function often ignores the interests of the majority of investors.
As a result, we have witnessed a series of anomalous phenomena such as the 3,000-point defense campaign, the financialization of real estate, and the real estate of bank assets, which are the direct consequences of excessive speculation in financial assets. Currently proposed"Financial powerhouse"conceived to address these problems at their roots. From a short-term policy perspective, the state has shown strong policy support, both emphasisively"Finance is the lifeblood of a nation", or the implementation of GA"Air ban", or"The Big Three"Personally release the signals, these are all marked"Financial powerhouse"Initiation of the strategy.
In this marathon of "financial power", the Zhongrong incident is very likely to become a key step in confirming the track and deciding the start.
In an in-depth analysis, the potential impact of the Zhongrong incident on the transition of China's economic momentum from the old to the new will play a decisive role in the success or failure of economic transformation.
If it is not handled properly, it will not only lead to a hard landing of the traditional economy and weaken market confidence, but may also objectively alienate the best group of investors cultivated over the past 40 years of reform and opening up.
Such a result will be a heavy blow to both the policymakers and the Chinese economic system, which is in the transition period, and its negative impact is difficult for both to bear.
Therefore, based on a deep understanding and confidence in China's reform and opening up policy, I firmly believe that the Zhongrong incident will not lead to a pessimistic ending.
Further, with the guidance of national policies and the maturity of the capital market, the income potential of ordinary investors in the capital market will increase day by day.
The clear support and guidance of national policies will undoubtedly inject more vitality into the capital market and improve market efficiency, thereby helping investors maximize returns.
This is not only an encouragement to investors, but also an important measure in the process of China's economic restructuring and market-oriented reform. Therefore, investors should remain optimistic about the future, believe in the power of national policies, and believe that the top management has enough confidence and ability to handle the Zhongrong incident.
(This article was first published on Knowledge Planet on the 12th and 10th).
ps: Finally, I want to say that, Knowledge Planet continues to recruit people, you can read yesterday's article for details, if you want to join, send me a private message, thank you for your support to Yan.