More exciting articles: The CSI 300 index ushered in the bottom resonance A new round of investment should strengthen financial retrieval In terms of overseas markets this week, the upcoming inflation data from the United States and the decision of the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting are worth paying attention to.
The U.S. inflation data will provide further guidance to the Fed's monetary policy, and the speed of inflation decline is also closely related to the growth rate of the U.S. economy, which largely determines the timing and magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cut window next year. Inflation and employment are the two core goals of the Fed's monetary policy, and if the inflation data in November is lower than expected, the Fed's dovish turn is expected to be more clear, which has a significant impact on the trend of the US dollar, US bonds, US stocks, etc., and the impact on the international financial market is also very obvious.
From the perspective of the United States** and natural gas**, the obvious decline in November, coupled with the decline in durable goods such as new cars, furniture, and electronics**, is good for the overall decline in US inflation. But at present, the main factor affecting US inflation is not **etc.**, the main factor hindering the decline of US inflation is housing, housing accounts for as much as 35% of the US CPI sub-weight, and housing inflation in November was ** 6 year-on-year5%, and if the housing component is excluded, the inflation rate in November was only 14%, but due to the impact of housing factors, the US CPI in November was **3 year-on-year1%。
In fact, excluding the rent factor, inflation control in the United States has reached the standard, so the Federal Reserve will collectively make a voice at last week's interest rate meeting. The core PCE data released this week is the Fed's main indicator to measure inflation, and it is very instructive for the Fed's monetary policy, so it is closely watched by the market.
The Federal Reserve has made a voice last week, but there is a big controversy about the timing and magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cut next year. Judging from the analysis of major banks and institutions on Wall Street, the earliest believes that the Fed will cut interest rates in March next year, the moderate ones believe that it will cut interest rates in the middle of next year, and the later ones believe that it will cut interest rates in the third quarter of next year. There is also a wide divergence on the magnitude of rate cuts, ranging from 50 basis points to 150 basis points. The market will continue to correct its expectations based on the main economic data released by the United States, which is expected to gradually converge until March next year.
From the time of the last interest rate hike in the United States this year to the concentrated fermentation period of the monetary effect is about half a year, so starting in February next year, the liquidity of the US market is expected to decline significantly. The Fed's reverse repo size is currently declining at an accelerated pace, and the Fed's overnight reverse repo (RRP) use has fallen sharply to 6,832 last Friday$5.4 billion. Judging from the process of accelerating the decline in the scale of the Fed's reverse repo, it is indeed not ruled out that the Fed will open a window for interest rate cuts in March next year, even if the interest rate is not cut in March, the time point of interest rate cut is expected to be relatively close to March, this is because the United States will issue bonds next year The task is also very heavy, if the stability of market liquidity cannot be guaranteed, the US bond yield will rise again, which is not good for the US bond market.
The Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting this week has also been concerned by the market, because the Bank of Japan has previously said that it will withdraw from the negative interest rate policy, and it is this statement that has made the yen change the rhythm of overdue depreciation, so that the yen has rebounded sharply against the dollar, which has also provided a boost to the non-US currency collective ** dollar, and it is expected that the central bank's interest rate meeting on Sunday will have a significant impact on the exchange rate market.
If the Bank of Japan further emphasizes the exit from negative interest rates at this week's interest rate meeting, it is expected that the yen will appreciate further against the dollar in the medium term to correct the overshoot since the beginning of this year, and the yen will depreciate again.
If the Bank of Japan emphasizes the withdrawal of negative interest rate policy, it will put pressure on the Japanese bond market and **, especially the pressure on the Japanese bond market, and the risk of the Japanese financial market is expected to rise, and a series of new impacts brought about by this are also worth observing. (This article is an original article by Xinyue said finance, **please indicate the author and** in Baijia Xinyue said finance).