The election situation in Taiwan changed too quickly, and the Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi made a comeback, and the gap in the support rate of the blue-green camp was basically wiped out. It can be said that Taiwan has ushered in the best opportunity in eight years.
The election campaign for the leadership of the Taiwan region continues to present a fierce competition situation. The latest polls show that the combination of Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin" is 35The 1% support rate ranks first, and the KMT's combination of "Hou Youyi and Zhao Shaokang" has recently risen rapidly, reaching 325%, which is only 2 lower than the "Lai Xiao Combination".6 percentage points. And Ke Wenzhe of Baiying maintained a low support rate of 17% after rejecting the "blue-white combination".
It is worth mentioning that compared with the previous wave of polls, Lai Qingde's support has dropped by 2 again7 percentage points, this is already two consecutive **, and the main ** area is still the Pingtung area of Kaohsiung, which is one of the base camps of the green camp. This is very likely to indicate that there is a contradiction within the Green Battalion.
In addition, if the People's Party Ko Wenzhe cannot win, most of its supporters may turn to the KMT, and if this trend continues, the election is worrying, and the KMT may return to power.
Hou Youyi participated in the campaign The results of the 2024 Taiwan leadership election not only affect the political pattern on the island, but also a key variable in the situation and development of the Taiwan Strait.
** Candidate Lai Qingde is a more radical "representative figure than Tsai Ing-wen", so much so that the United States has deliberately distanced itself from it because of its too radical position and fear of overstimulating Chinese mainland and causing the situation to get out of control.
If it wins in the end, it is more likely to further promote the intensification of "relying on the United States to resist the mainland", which will make the situation in the Taiwan Strait further dangerous, make it worse, and even the risk of conflict.
If the Kuomintang wins the election, although "peaceful reunification" is unlikely in the short term, as long as the Kuomintang recognizes the "consensus of '92," the situation in the Taiwan Strait may re-stabilize, and it is also expected to usher in new development opportunities, prompting the two sides to re-establish contacts and restore various agreements and exchange mechanisms. This is relatively better news for peace.
Ma Ying-jeou, former leader of the Taiwan region, returned to the mainland to pay respects to his ancestors, which had a great impact on Hou Youyi's election situation. Combined with Ke Wenzhe's white camp, it can basically be seen that more than half of the Taiwan people do not want to continue to deteriorate and resolutely oppose dragging Taiwan into the flames of war.
In the past, the high support rate was largely due to the fact that the people were benefited from the economy. Objectively speaking, Taiwan's economic development has not been good in recent years, but the efforts to benefit the people have not gone down, and even announced that the minimum monthly salary will be raised next year to canvass for votes.
However, this has not had much effect, in large part because most Taiwanese people really feel the threat of war, especially since last year's PLA military exercise around the island demonstrated the strength to attack Taiwan, and the performance of the Taiwanese military was a mess. And in the case of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the performance of the United States is really disappointing. The United States has not personally come to the aid of such an iron-clad ally as Israel, which has caused more and more people to lose trust in the United States.
Therefore, after more and more people calm down, they will no longer be blind to the incitement of ***, and begin to weigh the pros and cons, which is also the most beneficial trend for the blue camp.
The coming to power of the blue camp is more conducive to peace, so for Taiwan, now is also the best opportunity in eight years.
It is worth mentioning that although it can be seen that the influence of the People's Liberation Army is not as good as before, it can also be seen that its basic market is still stable. More than 30% of Taiwanese people still chose *** in the context of knowing that *** might lead to war, and knowing that *** was seriously corrupt and counterfeiting continued
This stubborn situation is the real hidden danger for ***.
In addition, the U.S. factor still cannot be ignored. The United States may announce arms sales to Taiwan or other cooperation at any time before the election, use the theory of exaggerating the mainland threat, and even take the initiative to stir up tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
And with the current election situation of *** and the Kuomintang, the middle voter may play a decisive role in the outcome. Therefore, until the last moment, I am afraid that the outcome is unpredictable.