The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for a whole year, but the start of this war has been unexpected. In advance, all parties ** Russia will quickly conquer Ukraine with a strong military force, and even Ukraine's supporters have lost confidence in this and have called on Ukraine ** Zelensky to form an exile**.
However, after the outbreak of the war, Russia behaved far from being as strong as one might expect. Their military operations did not exhibit the expected large-scale mechanized warfare, but instead encountered strong Ukrainian resistance, with skirmishes and urban guerrilla warfare on the battlefield. In these wars, the new type of UAV began to show amazing combat effectiveness.
Russia has had to turn to Iran for drones instead of China, which has always been closely coordinated, as domestic production capacity cannot meet demand, but has been asked to seek drones from Iran. In fact, Russia's turn to Iran to buy drones is completely out of desperation, not voluntariness.
We must be clear that China has always maintained a neutral position in the Russia-Ukraine war. If we rashly go to Russia ** UAVs, it is tantamount to clearly taking the side of Russia, which will mean that we have abandoned our neutral position. Although this decision may be difficult for many to understand, Ukraine ** is clearly a puppet of Western forces and has blatant Western support.
In such a situation, China and Russia should be in the same boat, not in the dark. Although we know that Russia launched this war in response to the eastward expansion of NATO by Western countries and Ukraine**, this does not change the fact that this war is contrary to the spirit of international law.
While we can understand Russia's motives, the law treats all people equally, and violations of the law should be sanctioned, regardless of the motives. International borders have largely stabilized, but this rule is a guarantee for small and weak countries. Russia hastily changed its borders, but no one dared to support it on the surface.
Although the countries of the world were oppressed by the United States, they were not forced to cut down trees and become soldiers. Because after breaking the rules, no one knows about the subsequent international order. Until there is really no way out, countries will not easily overturn this rule and choose to forbear. Winston Churchill once said: The worst system is still better than no system. Is it worth losing global trust for the sake of one country, Russia?
China remains neutral, which is beneficial to Russia. After the Russia-Ukraine war, the United States forced countries to take sides, but neutral countries were reluctant. They recognize that it was not Russia's intention to make a mistake, but that Western countries have taken advantage of legal loopholes. The law is cold, and justice is at ease in the hearts of the people. They did not dare to openly oppose the United States, and could only express their dissatisfaction with neutrality. China stepped up and changed the situation.
If the United States continues to press, neutrals will have an excuse. If China cannot be reconciled, why should there be double standards?We need to be responsible powers, not rule-breakers. China's neutrality plays an important role in the world landscape.
Such a neutral stance would not only help to avoid Russia's isolation and thus safeguard its exports of oil, gas, and mineral resources, but would also strategically optimally avoid provoking Europe. At present, the United States regards China as its biggest adversary, and containing China's rise has become the top priority of the United States.
Therefore, although the Russian-Ukrainian war is aimed at Russia, it is essentially a provocation against China. During the Trump administration, the United States vigorously pursued an "America First" policy and made containment of China a top priority, which led to the alienation of America's European allies. While the United States turned its attention to the East, some European countries even began to secretly engage with Russia.
Therefore, the United States provoked this war, on the one hand, to obtain funds from Europe to revive the economy, and on the other hand, to re-woo these allies. As a result of China's neutral stance, some European white-left forces manipulated by the United States began to destabilize the situation and call for decoupling. However, Europe and China do not clash geopolitically, but rather share common interests economically.
Thus, despite Europe's rhetoric, it has been perfunctory in practice. In the current situation, China absolutely does not want Europe to be pushed aside. Although we do not expect Europe to be completely on our side, it is enough as long as they are on the right and left, not completely on the side of the United States.
The world's three largest markets today are China, the United States, and Europe, which together account for more than two-thirds of the global market. Therefore, in the Sino-US game, Europe's strategic position is crucial. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, talk about Europe's decline began to grow.
Europe occupies the most advantageous position in the international game and is not in a desperate situation, despite the intervention of the United States. With China's support, the United States will not dare to act recklessly, so Europe will be a key factor in the confrontation between China and the United States, and it will be in a good position to fight left and right. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the interests of all parties are intertwined and interrelated, and we cannot blindly and impulsively support Russia for the moment.
The world is full of human feelings, and being good at dealing with situations is the key. Iran dares to support Russia because it does not have the same scruples as China. At present, Iran is in deep trouble, suffering from international isolation from the United States and other countries, and its foreign policy is clear, advocating an alliance with China and Russia to resist the United States.
In the Middle East, Iran faces many challenges, but it relies on China's support to sustain its economy and Russia's support to bolster its military. Iran's biggest military adversaries in the Middle East are Syria and Lebanon. Putin has significant influence in Syria, and if Iran does not support Russia, it will not be able to get Syria's support, thus offending the United States and Israel.
This will put Iran in the face of Israel's challenge and make it difficult to stand alone. Iran's domestic political landscape is very delicate, with religious theocracy and secular liberals pitted against each other. The religious theocracy relies on external expansion to maintain the legitimacy of its rule, and the Syrian issue is of paramount importance to them.
If something goes wrong, the current regime will face questions from domestic public opinion, and its ruling position will be in jeopardy. As a result, Putin currently holds the lifeblood of Iran in his hands, and they cannot afford to sit idly by. At first, Russia simply expected Iran to make a clear statement. Russia does not have much hope for Iranian drones.
However, on the battlefield in Ukraine, Russia is frequently annoyed by Ukrainian drones, so it hopes to bring in some countermeasures from Iran. The war taught Russia a lesson, making them realize that the way of warfare was outdated. UAVs are the masters of the battlefield of the future because of their low cost and high returns.
To destroy a drone, one missile is required, but the cost of a missile is much lower than that of a drone. However, Russia realized this too late, and they did not pay attention to the development of the drone industry before, resulting in a serious shortage of domestic drone production capacity. And China has the ability to provide large-scale assistance to advanced drones, but it is limited by the above reasons.
At that time, Iran was the only country in the world that had the ability to assist drones and was not afraid of US sanctions. Therefore, Russia had to look to Iran, trying to introduce a batch of drones from there. However, it is surprising that Iran's drone performance is so good that it has helped Russia reverse some of its disadvantages on the battlefield.
Usually when we mention Iran, the first thing that comes to mind is its backward image. And there are very few countries in the world that can master drone technology, and how does Iran do it?The United States and Iran have been in conflict for a long time. More than a decade ago, there were reports of Iranian artillery units shooting down American drones. At that time, people didn't pay much attention to these reports, and Iran laid it down.
At most, it is to frustrate the morale of the Americans, can it still copy the American drone technology?However, in 2016, at a military exhibition organized by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, people were surprised to find that the American Predator drone was actually listed as an exhibit.
There is a general rule in the world, once any ** is exhibited at the exhibition, it means that the exhibiting country has completely conquered the ** technology. For the exhibiting countries, this is no longer considered advanced**, because they must have more advanced technology in their hands.
Iran's drone research has benefited from the precedent of the U.S. drone operating system, which has greatly saved them decades of exploration time, making them world-class in one fell swoop. We have no way of knowing whether this achievement was achieved independently or with the help of other great powers. But the latter seems more likely, given the current level of Iran's military-industrial complex.
Whether developed independently or with foreign aid, there is no doubt that Iran's drones have shown excellent performance. Russia and Ukraine have amply demonstrated this on the battlefield. Countries around the world have lined up to buy Iranian drones after seeing the excellent performance. According to an Iran**, more than 90 countries are currently lining up to buy their drones.
This can also be counted as one of the unexpected gains of Iran in this war.