Rise, rise, rise!International gold prices continue to soar.
In early trading on December 4, Comex*** opened sharply, rising as high as 2152 per ounce$3, a record high, and spot** also soared to $2,146 an ounce.
Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen wildly, and the international spot and market have continued to be at a high level. At the same time, the retail price of domestic pure gold has also been rising. On the same day, major domestic brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang, Luk Fook Jewellery and Saturday Fook*** were 625 yuan per gram, which was at a high level in the year.
The official ** "Gold Coin Cloud Merchant" of the China Gold Coin Corporation, the Panda Gold Coin issued by the People's Bank of China** has been on the rise for several years: at the end of 2018, the purchase of newly issued 30-gram Panda Gold Coins** was around 8,700 yuan;Today, it has exceeded 15,000 yuan, and it has exceeded 70% in the past five years.
Why does gold continue to climb and will it continue to soar in the future?
Multiple factors have caused gold prices to "grow wildly".
According to expert analysis, there are many reasons behind the continuous international gold price.
"Some time ago, the price of gold ** was mainly because of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. ”Wan Zhe, a professor at Beijing Normal University and former chief economist of China** Group, told reporters that before the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, gold prices had a slight downward trend. After the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the intensification of geopolitical tensions triggered a strong risk aversion in the market, and gold prices were the inevitable result. When the market expects a lower probability of a more violent conflict, gold prices have regained. However, in general, the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict situation is still tense, and the geopolitical conflict has not been completely resolved.
In addition to the factor of geopolitical conflicts,The weakening trend of contraction in financial conditions is also a major factor affecting gold prices.
Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang**, pointed out in an analysisThe Fed's interest rate cut expectations moved forward, pushing *** to a record high. At present, the market expects the Fed to stop raising interest rates this year, starting to cut interest rates in May 2024, and cutting interest rates a total of 4 times next year5%。The federal interest rate implied that the market's first interest rate cut expectations were moved forward from June to May next year, and the dollar index weakened significantly, pushing *** to strengthen over the past month.
Wan Zhe also said that on the one hand, the market is worried about whether the U.S. economy will appear ** or even a recession to start a new round of recession;On the other hand, the market has speculation and expectations for the United States to stop raising interest rates and even enter the state of interest rate cuts next year. In this context, the dollar index is also weakening, so the rise in gold prices is also affected by changes in financial conditions.
In addition,The continued "binge" of global central banks** is also one of the factors driving gold prices upward.
Global central bank gold demand rose 14% y-o-y to a record 800t in the first three quarters of 2023, according to the World ** AssociationThe central bank made 337t of net purchases in Q3, the third highest quarterly net purchase on record.
Wan Zhe analyzed that the central bank is the "weather vane" of the market. In fact, the central bank's continued gold purchases also indicate that the current market risk aversion and tension have not completely eased under the influence of the geopolitical situation. According to the latest central bank reserves survey of the World Association, seven out of ten central banks surveyed expect to increase their reserves in the next 12 months, taking into account inflation, geopolitical events and other factors, and this trend is likely to continue for many years.
The continuous surge in international gold prices has also gradually spread to China, and the domestic ** premium is higher in comparison. Wan Zhe analysis, some time ago the dollar index rose, the rise in RMB is higher, with the relative weakening of the dollar index, it is expected that the difference between the internal and external premiums will also converge.
Will gold prices continue to soar?
Looking to the future,A number of institutions remain bullish on gold prices.
Wang Zhaohua, a researcher at Everbright, believes that the slowdown in U.S. economic growth in 2024 is a high probability event, and 2024 will usher in a U.S. interest rate cut and a weakening of the U.S. dollar, which is good for gold prices and high-level stocks, and is optimistic that gold prices will continue to hit new highs.
The financial credit research report also pointed out that the Fed's current round of interest rate hike cycle may be over, and U.S. interest rates may usher in a turn after staying at a higher level for a period of time.
In Wan Zhe's view, the current situation of conflict, tear and confrontation in the world, whether in politics or economy, has not completely disappeared, and the global governance, order and framework are in the process of reorganization. Whether geopolitical conflicts will continue to occur in the future, where and whether the risk points of the global economy and financial markets will recur, these are all issues that the market is concerned about. "So I think that in the long run, gold prices will have high support for a long time. ”
**: The country is a through train