From December 11th to 12th, the ** Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. **The Economic Work Conference is the most authoritative weather vane for judging the current economic situation and setting the tone of the macroeconomic policy for the second year, and it is the highest level of economic work conference every year. I tried to learn the spirit Xi of the 2023 Economic Work Conference based on the official press release, combined with the content of the 2022 ** Economic Work Conference.
The content of the conference in 2022 is indicated in red font, and in 2023, it will be in blue font for text differentiation.
1. Changes in the division of labor among the leadership of the Party and the Party in economic work.
**In the important speech, we will comprehensively summarize the economic work in 2023, deeply analyze the current economic situation, and systematically deploy the economic work in 2024. Li Qiang made a concluding speech and put forward requirements for implementing the spirit of the general secretary's important speech and doing a good job in next year's economic work.
**In the important speech, summarize the economic work in 2022, analyze the current economic situation, and deploy the economic work in 2023. ** Arrangements have been made for next year's economic work. Li Qiang made a concluding speech.
**From participating in the deployment of economic work to implementing it, the methods and methods of economic work are more the embodiment of the party's will, which is related to the direction of economic work in the following article.
Second, it acknowledges the drag on the economy caused by insufficient income.
The meeting pointed out that to further promote the economic rebound, we need to overcome some difficulties and challenges, mainly due to the lack of effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and many hidden risks.
The meeting pointed out that the current foundation for China's economic recovery is not yet solid, the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations is still large, and the external environment is turbulent, which has deepened the impact on China's economy.
The concept of "effective demand" was put forward for the first time in this year's ** economic work conference. The so-called effective demand, in layman's terms, refers to the demand that is willing and can afford it. For example, I work in Beijing and want to buy a 100-square-meter house in the Fourth Ring Road, but I don't have the money, so this is not a valid demand. For a long time, we attributed the lack of domestic demand to residents' excessive preference for saving, and even promoted loan spending in high school political textbooks. Therefore, the focus of the past policy was on stimulating consumer demand, whether it was the Zibo barbecue promoted by the first public, the May 11 holiday tourism fever, or this year's hot concert, it can be understood as stimulating residents' willingness to consume, but in the end, social demand continues to be weak. This shows that the problem is not in the willingness to demand at all, but in the income. The introduction of the concept of "effective demand" means that the state has realized that simply stimulating consumption will not work, but this does not mean that the state will give money to everyone next.
The supply problem is no longer a key influencing factor with the end of the mask problem, but the domestic circulation and changes in the external environment are still worth paying attention to. This year's economic work conference emphasized the "domestic circulation", which shows that even though there have been signs of easing bilateral relations between China and the United States, the country's strategy of building a "new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles reinforcing each other" has not changed, and this is inseparable from the external environment. In terms of the external environment, the country's judgment has changed from "turbulence" to "increasing complexity, severity, and uncertainty", from static to dynamic, and from negative to deteriorating. The complexity should refer to the increasing number of state actors involved in international disputes, and the increasing influence of historical, ethnic, religious and other conflict factorsSeverity means that the intensity of disputes and conflicts will continue to rise, and the impact on the national economy will become more severe;Uncertainty refers to the decline in the feasibility of international disputes and the rational decision-making ability of decision-makers, and the number of black swan events may further increase. All in all, the external, that is, foreign trade and the first chain, we basically don't count on it, or focus on ourselves.
Third, this year's economic indicators will not be completed.
It is necessary to enhance the sense of distress and effectively deal with and resolve these problems. On the whole, the favorable conditions facing China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed.
China's economy is resilient, has great potential and vitality, and the effects of various policies continue to appear, and the economic operation is expected to rebound overall next year. It is necessary to strengthen confidence in doing a good job in economic work.
This year, whether it is a marketing gimmick in the local government, or an overwhelming consumer promotion, or the repeated relaxation of real estate policies, it has not changed the downward trend of the economy, therefore, this year's report did not mention any "policy effect", but only mentioned the economy's "rebound for good, long-term good", in fact, it can be understood that it is not good now, not good in the short term, and it will be good in the future. The fact that "economic operation is expected to pick up overall" mentioned last year is not mentioned this year may mean that the policy tools planned now will not show obvious results next year, and everyone should be patient in the short term.
Fourth, the epidemic as a historical issue has been completely turned over.
The meeting stressed the need to do a good job in economic work ,...... next yearComprehensively deepen reform and opening up, promote high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, increase macroeconomic regulation and control, and coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen the supply-side structural reform ......
The meeting emphasized ......We should better coordinate epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development, better coordinate development and security, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, vigorously boost market confidence, and organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms......
At present, China is facing the triple attack of the new crown, mycoplasma virus and influenza A, the life and health of residents have suffered a relatively large test, and the pediatric outpatient clinic of Beijing Hospital has been overcrowded.
Fifth, the rectification of industries other than the financial industry may come to an end.
The meeting demanded that next year, we should persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and come up with more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment, and actively forging ahead in changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving quality, and increasing efficiency, so as to continuously consolidate the foundation for stability and improvement. It is necessary to strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools.
The meeting demanded that next year, we should adhere to the principle of stability and seek progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, increase macro policy regulation and control, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of various policies, and form a joint force to promote high-quality development.
First stand and then break", this word has been analyzed by many people in the past two days. In the past few years, in order to meet the requirements of high-quality development, we have carried out industry rectification in the fields of finance, education and auxiliary services, Internet, medical care, real estate, etc., successfully squeezed out some bubbles and cracked down on some industry chaos, but it has also caused a lot of losses to these industries, bringing greater economic burden and employment pressure. The concept of "establishing first and then breaking" may mean that the rectification of the industry may come to an end, and the cultivation of emerging industries and the stabilization of traditional industries go hand in hand, so as to better serve the goal of "seeking progress while maintaining stability". However, the rectification of the financial industry may be an exception, after all, the economic situation is down, all walks of life are tight funds, and the financial industry represented by the big banks does not have some blood, and this water will come.
Sixth, the state's support for local finances will weaken.
Optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures and strengthen the financial guarantee for major national strategic tasks. Reasonably expand the scope of local ** special bonds to be used as capital. Implement structural tax and fee reduction policies, and focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and the development of manufacturing industry. Strict supervision of transfer payment funds, strict financial discipline. Enhance fiscal sustainability and strengthen the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. Strict control of general expenditures. Party and government organs should Xi living a tight life.
Maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure, optimize the combination of deficits, special bonds, interest discounts and other tools, and ensure fiscal sustainability and controllable local debt risks while effectively supporting high-quality development. It is necessary to increase the transfer payment to the local government, promote the sinking of financial resources, and do a good job in the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level.
From "ensuring fiscal sustainability and controllable local debt risks" to "strict fiscal discipline";From "doing a good job at the grassroots level" three guarantees "" to "bottom", it shows that the country's money should be used to stimulate the future of the "major national strategic tasks", focusing on "scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing development", local financial problems to find their own way, the state allows local special debts, but the problems caused by their own blind use of discipline to solve, next year's workload of the discipline inspection team may not be small, relying on transfer payment subsidies of local civil servants may further decline.
7. Policy assistance for small and micro enterprises may be weakened.
Guide financial institutions to increase support for scientific and technological innovation, green transformation, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and digital economy.
Guide financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation, green development and other fields.
Like fiscal policy, the focus has shifted to scientific and technological innovation and green transformation (which may be related to the warming of Sino-US relations) that have greater significance for the country's future, while small and micro enterprises that are more closely related to residents' lives and employment have been put on the back burner. , but to re-rivet the target on important industries and professional fields, hoping to drive the overall development of the country with major breakthroughs in key positions, in other words, to fight a large-depth assault tactic.
Time and energy are limited, so let's write so much first, and the follow-up specific measures department will write tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.