2023 is a year of critical significance, laying the foundation for the development of China's economy. However, in 2024, we have an even more important year ahead of us. First of all, we have reason to believe that economic development, enterprise investment, household employment and income, and consumption levels will get rid of the shadow brought about by the new crown epidemic. In addition, 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and a pivotal year for the 14th Five-Year Plan. After solving various development problems, some industries have completed the bottoming, and we have reason to believe that the people of the whole country will regain confidence in development this year.
To get a closer look at the economic outlook for 2024, we'll sort out a few important indicators. First of all, the consumption ** index (CPI), which is closely related to people's lives. Due to changes in imported, cyclical and seasonal factors, the downward momentum of China's CPI for many months will be suppressed, and prices are expected to rise moderately. This conclusion is mainly based on changes in pork** and international energy markets**. In 2023, the CPI is at a low level as a whole, mainly due to the relatively low level of food** including pork, especially the continued low price of pigs, resulting in a continuous negative growth in CPI. In addition, the international energy market** will decline significantly in 2023 compared to 2022, which will be further passed on to the areas of people's lives. In summary, we expect both factors to be corrected to varying degrees this year.
For some residents, they may want prices** and believe that deflation is more beneficial than inflation. However, from a macroeconomic development perspective, moderate inflation between 2% and 4% is the best combination to boost economic development, boost employment and consumption, and expand investment and production. When goods sell well when inflation occurs, companies will actively expand their scale, add jobs and raise wages, thereby increasing residents' incomes and consumption levels. Conversely, when deflation is a time when goods are difficult to sell, companies have to cut prices, which leads to downsizing, fewer jobs, and lower wages. For ordinary people, employment is more difficult, incomes are declining, and confidence in life is suppressed. Most people want to be able to earn more and spend less, so moderate inflation is ideal.
Secondly, the RMB exchange rate is also an important indicator. In 2023, the RMB depreciated by 4 percent against the US dollar55%。Among them, the first quarter depreciated by 726%, with a depreciation of 565%, with a depreciation of 485%, with a depreciation of 078%。However, with the gradual narrowing of the quarterly decline and the intensification of the warming, we are expected to enter a "narrow recovery channel" this year, and expect the RMB exchange rate to gradually return to 68 to 70.
In 2023, China's real economic growth rate is expected to be 52% to 53% interval. Deflation and the renminbi exchange rate have put downward pressure on nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in dollar terms, and the size of our economy is expected to fall to 179 trillion to 17$98 trillion range. However, looking ahead to this year (2024), the recovery of the RMB exchange rate and the moderate increase in the price level will be important drivers for China's GDP in US dollar terms. The GDP gap between the two major economic powers, China and the United States, will narrow again this year.
So, how much is the expected economic growth rate to reach this year?Domestic economic analysts are generally **, roughly around 5%. If the real estate sector completes the bottoming, private investment confidence is restored, and industrial transformation and upgrading are steadily promoted, our country's economic growth rate is expected to reach 5About 2%. However, some foreign institutions are relatively conservative about this, giving an expectation of less than 5%. Goldman Sachs, for example, expects China's economic growth rate to be 53%, which will slow to 4 this year8%。Traditionally, these agencies tend to underestimate and then continuously raise their expectations.
According to a survey by Japan, the average value of China's real GDP growth in 2024 is only 46%。According to this calculation, China's economic scale is expected to exceed 19 trillion US dollars this year. What should we think of this?This requires us to think deeply and combine our own experiences and insights.
When it comes to China's economic development, we can't simply rely on numbers and data to evaluate it. While the data are objective, they only reflect a part of the economy and cannot fully represent the lives and well-being of the people. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the issues of people's livelihood and strive to improve the quality of life of the people while growing the economy.
At the same time, we should also realize that economic growth is not the only goal. People's well-being and social stability are equally important. While pursuing economic development, we need to pay attention to the development of environmental protection, public health, education and culture in order to promote the overall progress of society.
In addition, with the continuous growth of China's economy, we should also pay attention to the adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the economic structure. After gradually moving away from the development model that relies on low-cost labor and resources, we need to pay more attention to innovation and technological progress, improve product quality and added value, and achieve sustainable development.
In conclusion, 2024 is a year of great significance for China's economy, and we have reason to be hopeful about economic growth and development prospects. However, we can't measure everything by economic growth alone. More importantly, we should pay attention to people's livelihood and well-being, pursue all-round progress, and achieve coordinated economic, social and environmental development.
Whether it is a company, an enterprise or an individual, we should focus on the happiness of the people and jointly build a more prosperous and beautiful society through cooperation and efforts. This is a goal that requires us to work together, and it is our mission to welcome 2024.