On December 4, the soda ash margin and the minimum amount of open positions were adjusted
The exchange issued an announcement on the soda ash margin increase on November 29, and continued to issue an announcement on the minimum trading volume of soda ash opening on December 1.
On August 28, the soda ash margin and the minimum amount of open positions were adjusted
On August 28, 2023, the exchange issued a similar policy, and the trading margin standard for 2312 contracts was adjusted to 12% at that time.
Compared with the two policies, the increase in the margin this time is mainly aimed at 2401, and the adjustment is larger, and the interval between the two increases is one week, which has a great impact on the near-month contract. Considering that the existing position of the 01 contract accounts for about 52% of the total position of soda ash, the increase in the margin will still have a greater impact on the position of the entire soda ash.
The minimum order limit introduced on August 28 was only for the near-month contracts 2309 and 2310 at that time, and this time the restriction contract is and 2408 contracts, which is broader than the last time, and has involved most of the active contracts traded by soda ash now.
Historical ** review
After the introduction of relevant adjustment policies on August 28, the performance of the ** disk on August 29 was that all the 2309 and 2310 contracts fell to the limit, at that time, because the 09 contract immediately entered the delivery month, the reference value was not too large, and the 09 contract position was reduced from 104892 to 52272 hands, and the 10 contract position was reduced from 392048 to 297583 hands, a 25% reduction in positions, and the policy effect on the day was obvious. However, we analyzed the later trend of the 09 and 10 contracts, and did not reverse the trend because of the fall limit on August 29, **continued** or high** to delivery.
Analysis at this stage
We intercepted the two contracts with the largest volume of soda ash now, 2401 and 2405, from the height of the comparison, when the 09 contract qualified for 3193 yuan tons, the 10 contract ** for 2694 yuan tons. Now the 2401 contract is 2623 yuan ton, and the 2405 contract is 2135 yuan ton, which is now lower than the previous one, but the open interest is much larger than the previous contract.
For the adjustment of the soda ash related system, we believe that the strength is greater than the last adjustment, and the resulting contract volatility will be greater than the previous one, which is also a good thing for the shorts, at least the probability of the short-term occurrence of ** has increased a lot. However, in the medium and long term, it is not clear whether it can be inhibited, but one thing is certain, and many small ones will gradually withdraw from the game of soda ash.
At the end of the writing, I still have a few words to say, there is no 100% prediction, we must resolutely stop the loss when it is time to stop the loss, only by surviving in this market, we may usher in more hope.
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