China and India are about to hold the 21st round of commander-level talks, and the release of the statement suggests that the two sides may reach consensus on some issues. According to *** reports, China and India recently held the 28th China-India Affairs Consultation and Coordination Meeting and reached some consensus. The two sides agreed to hold the 21st round of commander-level talks as soon as possible to promote the settlement of border-related issues and bring about a turnaround in the border situation at an early date. This time, China and India reached "one affirmation, two consents," that is, they affirmed the positive progress made in the Sino-Indian border situation talks, agreed to continue diplomatic and military talks, promote the settlement of the border issue, and bring about a turning point in the border situation. In addition, the two sides will improve the negotiation and consultation mechanism, abide by the agreement and confidence-building measures, and jointly maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas.
The "turnaround" mentioned in the statement suggests that the two sides may have reached a consensus on resolving the border conflict since 2020. India seems to realize that there is only one option when it comes to the Sino-Indian border. India has long been baffled because China and India seem to be spending equally on defense, and China's defense capabilities have caused concern in the United States, but China doesn't seem to care much about India. India was puzzled by this and even began to be anxious about it. In addition, despite India's toughness on the Sino-Indian border issue, India has actually suffered a lot. At present, the initiative is in China's hands, and it is difficult for India to gain any substantial benefits from it. As far as India's "anxiety" about deploying 10 divisions on the Sino-Indian border is concerned, this further highlights India's anxiety and uncertainty on the border issue.
China has only three brigades stationed on the Sino-Indian border, which is not even a fraction of India's number. However, these three brigades effectively counterbalanced India and forced it to refrain from acting rashly. In other words, if India wants to maintain power parity with China on the Sino-Indian border, it will pay a much greater price than China. We have not much more elite troops, and India can only rely on numbers to accumulate strength. However, to achieve numerical superiority, logistics are essential. However, India's logistics level is inherently short, and there are many domestic doubts about the logistics of the Sino-Indian border. Modi has long been caught in a dilemma. In addition, since India provoked the incident, we have often displayed all kinds of advanced ** and ammunition along the Sino-Indian border, which makes Modi both greedy and anxious. After several rounds of consultations, Modi has long recognized that there is only one way out of the China-India border issue.
With a new round of commander-level talks on the horizon, will Modi give up easily? Recently, India has been repeatedly "beaten" by the United States, which has made India realize that the United States is not reliable and that its real belonging is still the camp of the southern countries. In order to expand its influence in the camp of countries in the South, India must show a peaceful posture, even if it is pretending. However, since India is now "peace-loving", it must also show sincerity when negotiating with us. Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives have recently been unhappy with India, but they have shown goodwill toward China, and we will not fail to live up to it. Perhaps, India should take advantage of this time to resolve its differences with these countries, return the corresponding territories, and withdraw its troops. If nothing else, this commander-level meeting is likely to bring the Sino-Indian border issue to an end.
However, we still need to be wary of India, as their new aircraft carriers are advancing under the slogan "confront China". Such a move could trigger regional tensions and require us to remain vigilant.