Beijing, Dec. 21 (Xinhua) -- It is rare to carry out "expected kidnapping" of China's economy.
Xinhua News Agency reporter Fu Yunwei Su Liang.
Recently, in the name of so-called "chief economists" and "market analysts", some US and Western institutions have launched a new round of "short-singing" performances against China's economy: first raising growth expectations, and then carrying out "expectation kidnapping" on the grounds that "falling short of market expectations".
Ignoring China's reasonable growth targets and detaching itself from China's economic fundamentals, the relevant institutions are content to "live in a self-designed economic model", and smear China's economic trend. The British scholar Martin Jacques pointed out sharply that if we look at China through the prism of the West, we will never be able to see the overall situation of China, and at the same time, we will not be able to make a correct judgment on China.
"Anticipatory kidnapping" is a common routine in the West.
There is growth, but the growth is not as expected;There are achievements, but the effect is not as good as expected......"First praise, then kill. This is a common practice by the United States and Western institutions against China's economy.
Recently, China's National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first 11 months, showing that the national economy continued to rebound. Among them, in November this year, China's retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10 percent year-on-year1%, 2 percent faster than October5 percentage points, highlighting the continued effectiveness of China's policy of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption.
However, some Western institutions, including the U.S. "Wall Street" Reuters, have labeled this data as "less than expected".
Reuters said the data "fell short of analysts' expectations of 12."5%”。In other words, these agencies believe that China's November data will need to be nearly 5 percentage points faster than October to be considered "up to the mark." The reason given is that the reason for such high expectations is that last year's base was low.
If you look back at the timeline, you'll see that the above rhetoric is just a rehash of the same old story.
As early as the beginning of this year, when China optimized and adjusted its epidemic prevention and control policies, these institutions created exactly the same narrative: that is, China's consumer market should immediately "retaliate": China's economy should continue to be "strong**", and when the second-quarter data was released, they went around shouting that "China's economy has ** trouble".
Analysts believe that the year-on-year growth rate of China's retail sales of consumer goods in November is significantly higher than that in October, which is not supported by empirical arguments. "The relevant agency put forward 12The 5% over-expectation is more like a service to the conclusion that it is 'less than expected'. Australian economist Guo Shengxiang said. "Some people deliberately sift through models and statistical methods that are unfavorable to China, drawing conclusions before finding arguments. ”
Talking about such routines of the United States and Western institutions, a recent article in the Spanish newspaper "Revolt" pointed out: "The news of China's economic chaos based on unfounded estimates is undoubtedly ideologically and propagandaly biased. ”
Subheading) is a common practice of "anticipatory kidnapping".
A separate Reuters survey of analysts expects China's economy to slow" "China's economic growth forecast for 2023 should be downgraded, according to a Bloomberg survey of 78 economists......
Such anonymous sources are often found in the reports frequently released by US and Western institutions. Such sources are often branded as professionals and hailed as "high-quality samples". To add credibility, U.S. and Western institutions often estimate the "average" or "median" of different samples to further justify their "expectations."
Different analysts have different information, different analytical tools, and different interest orientations, so it is very natural for them to make different longs and shorts for a particular economy. What investors expect from relevant institutions is nothing more than to objectively and balance the reporting of various information and opinions, and to provide the audience with diversified and rational information products.
However, some Western institutions have blindly abused the hegemony of discourse, and deliberately exaggerated the single voice of "singing the short economy of China" as the only voice representing "market expectations", in an attempt to sway market sentiment and mislead market expectations.
In addition to ** and commercial institutions, the political circles of the United States and the West are more well versed in the way of "anticipatory kidnapping".
Not long ago, the "China Select Committee" of the US House of Representatives moved the "war games" commonly used in the Cold War to Wall Street to show financial institution executives that China poses "systemic risks" to the US economy "in a hypothetical state". In the "war games," these ideologically biased politicians assert that China is a "source of risk" and is no longer "fit for investment."
U.S. Congressman Mike Gallagher recently wrote an article calling on Wall Street and Washington to "speak in unison" to deal with the "China threat".
Jon Mills, a spokesman for Cummins Inc., told **: If you say anything positive about China's economy, you're in trouble. ”
Subheading) From singing short to making a game, "anticipatory kidnapping" has become a means of profit.
The "singing short" performance of the West is not isolated, and often closely interacts with international hot money and even Western political forces, involving a complex chain of gray interests.
Its operation methods include but are not limited to: American and Western institutions and ** to be "short" pioneers to earn traffic;International rating agencies downgrade credit ratings to attract customer attention;International hot money follow-up, do a substantial "short" layout, or synchronous operation of "short and long" ** trading;Politicians take advantage of the situation to seek various interests for themselves and increase their bargaining chips in participating in international affairs.
It is a first-class war, a mental attack, a poor information, and a "business classic" - for decades, the relevant institutions of the United States and the West have played this combination of punches very well, bringing them rolling financial resources and strategic benefits.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia, under the offensive of the West and institutions, could not resist the "expected kidnapping" and decided to completely westernize and accept the "shock**" dismemberment of the current system. However, this approach has not only failed to reverse Russia's economic decline, but has led to runaway prices, a sharp increase in poverty, and a sharp depreciation of the country's assets. Those US and Western forces and their **people who "advised" Russia succeeded**, and once controlled a lot of Russia's economic lifeline.
In the 90s of the last century, George Soros, the American financial tycoon, strangled the Thai baht, and his usual means was to release the news of the decline through **. By amplifying the difficulties faced by economies such as Thailand in "professional" institutions, creating market panic and paving the way for shorting these economies.
In January this year, the United States broke the news that reporters from CNN, CBS, NBC, National Public Radio, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post and other giants had received funding from Soros in order to "correctly grasp the key points" in their work and "sound the gong" for their financial speculation.
Today, "expectation management" has become a business in the United States and the West. Many practitioners firmly believe that if you want to fish in troubled waters, you must first muddy the water.
On the one hand, some Western investment banks and institutions have made a high-profile decline in China's economy and Chinese enterprises, and on the other hand, they have quietly long the concept of China in foreign exchange, ** and other markets, and obtained huge profits through information asymmetrySome international organizations have put forward "reform plans" that are out of touch with China's national conditions, citing "less than expected".There are also some "economists" who take the decline of China's economy as their business, and make ...... profits by packaging and hype, selling fame, publishing bestsellers, traveling all over the world, and giving speeches
The so-called "accumulation of feathers and sinking boats, group light folding shafts". There is a concept in economics called "self-fulfillment of expectations", that is, expectations lead to behavior changes, and the change in behavior further verifies the "correctness" of the original expectations and the "wisdom" of the expectants. The reality is that pessimistic expectations are more likely to be transmitted to the real economy by suppressing market confidence and the "financial accelerator" effect, causing serious consequences.
China's economy is a sea, not a small pond. As China's high-quality economic development momentum continues to gather, a more open China is constantly creating new opportunities, contributing valuable certainty to the world economy and boosting global development confidence.
Thanks to its large market size, vitality of scientific and technological innovation, and strong development resilience, China has withstood external pressure, overcome internal difficulties, prevented and defused risks, and the economy has rebounded for the better, effectively falsifying all kinds of negative arguments.
In this land, the "anticipatory kidnapping" routine is rare. (ENDS).