Even more exciting than spring is a cold winter that is about to pass.
After today, there is only one working day left in 2023. For many people, time flies, the four seasons pass by in a flash, and the sweetness of life is given by themselves, of course, there are some that are given by others.
For example, as the holder of Liu Lili, the manager of the deep value faction, she has gained a different sense of "sweetness". A selection of Wells Fargo Research managed by Liu Lili, with a net value of **18 in the past 1 year11%, and the benchmark yield was only -0 over the same period58%, 1869% alpha;It ranks in the top 3% of its peers, ranking 46th out of 1,843 in its category**. (Data**: The ranking and related data are from Haitong**, and the performance comparison benchmark data is from Wind, as of 2023-11-30, and the same kind refers to the active**open-flexible strategy hybrid**).
The so-called broad view and about to take, thick accumulation and thin hair.
If you want to make a review of 2023, for this deep value manager, it can almost be said that the gears of fate have begun a new round of turning.
How do the gears turn in 2023?The performance of the products she manages bucks the trend;By the first working day of 2024, the first launch product to be managed by her alone-Wells Fargo Value Discovery Blend (Category A: 019342;Category C: 019343).will be officially released.
Looking back on Liu Lili's 19 years of professional experience, 14 of them have been engaged in industry research;She has been a ** manager since 2018, and in 5 years of ** management experience, she has co-managed the consumption theme of Phu Quoc with Wang Yuanyuan, the "goddess of big consumption" of Phu Quoc ;Since February 2019, he has been managing the Wells Fargo Research Selection. Her years of accumulated investment and research experience have provided strong support for this product to resist risk fluctuations and obtain excess returns.
What was the result of the "covenant"?
As mentioned above, the performance of the Wells Fargo Research Select managed by her is very outstanding, and the performance is outstanding in the ** market in 2023. Not only in terms of short-term performance, but also in terms of medium-term performance, Wells Fargo Research Select has also performed well, with returns of 20 in the past 3 years and 5 years respectively28% and 10892%, with an excess return of 28 per cent relative to the performance benchmark54% and 9347%。
For Liu Lili's investor**, it can be summarized as:
"Deep Value" combines knowledge and action to practice the way of investment
The so-called deep value is not to buy varieties with low apparent valuations, but to avoid value traps as much as possible on the premise of significantly lower than the intrinsic value of the company, and then earn the money to return to value and the long-term growth of the enterprise. ”
Lily Liu. 
* ManagerLily Liu.
One yuan begins, and everything is renewed
On January 2, 2024, Liu Lili's new masterpiece "Rich Fargo Value Discovery" was officially released.
In Liu Lili's masterpiece, how did she cross the bull and bear and bring good results?
As a value manager, how does she understand and practice the concept of "value investment"?
In this new product, what kind of value will Liu Lili "discover"?
Next, Fu Er will act as the "mouth substitute" of the guest officer, ask Liu Lili questions, and reveal Liu Lili's way to "win" in value investment together.
The valet officer asked: Most of the positions in the products you are currently managing are in traditional industries, and there are less related to science and technology, because you are from a research background in the consumer industry, so you are more inclined to choose traditional industries
Lily Liu. The idea of my portfolio construction is that when choosing an industry, I prefer to choose competitionThe pattern is relatively stableorThe competitive landscape is improvingof the industry.
If you choose according to this idea, most of the selected companies may be in some traditional industries. But that doesn't mean I don't pay attention to the tech sector, in fact, almostAll subdivisions are being studied。According to my stock selection ideas, when choosing **, I tend to do pricing first, and then calculate a more bottom-of-the-bottomMarginal of safety positionSpecifically, there are two requirements for this position, the downside space is relatively limited, and the upside space needs to meet my requirements, start buying from this position. However, if many companies in the technology industry are selected according to this idea, there is a high probability that they will not be selected, or that their expected rate of return will most likely not meet my requirements.
Therefore, you can see that last year and the first half of this year, technology-related I allocated relatively more major consumer electronics, dividend operators, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, robots, etc. are studying and researching, I hope to find the target, it is not only the nature of the theme investment, and the related companies in the future do correspond to performance, profit growth;At the same time, the cost-effectiveness of valuation and the matching degree of valuation should be relatively high. At present, the relevant targets that meet the requirements of stock selection are relatively less selective.
The valet officer asked: Based on the current situation, from the perspective of improving the competition pattern of the industry, which industries are more worthy of attention?
Lili Liu: Industries that have improved their competitive landscape include black electricity, and industries whose competitive landscape is improving include offline retail and real estateIn the next 1-2 years, the competitive pattern of the express delivery sector may improve significantly. Because 80% of the demand of the express delivery sector comes from e-commerce, we expect that by 2024-2025, the GMV growth rate of the e-commerce sector may have to fall, if the growth rate of e-commerce GMV falls to single digits, and the volume growth rate of the express delivery sector drops to a single digit or does not grow, the industry competition pattern is expected to improve greatly, because when all participants find that there is no way to achieve a share increase in further fighting, they may all turn from the past to profits.
The valet officer asked: As a value investor, do you pay special attention to ROE like Warren Buffett?What are the most important investment indicators in investment?
Lily Liu. Valuation and ROE are two indicators, and I may put the valuation relatively high;As for ROE, I am more concerned about the current position of ROE in the historical center.
Because the underlying idea of my investment isAbsolute returns, I hopeTry not to lose money as much as possible
Regarding valuation, if you are an investor who believes in mean reversion, you must think that valuation is important. Valuation is not an absolute ruler. In different stages, its performance is different, for example, the core asset has a valuation bubble in those years, and the valuation bubble lasts for a relatively long time, but it will still revert to the mean, if you don't see it mean reversion, it means that the time is not long enough, and it will definitely revert to the mean when the time comes.
When I'm in ***, I count it as a margin of safety. For example, if I calculate that the downside of a certain ** may be 5-10% in the future, then at this time, at the position of the margin of safety, I will open the mode of step-by-step positioning;Then I will calculate its future market value corresponding to the forward, such as calculating the market value space corresponding to the profit in 3-5 years, and then convert it into what is the expected rate of returnIf it meets my requirements, I may start buying at this point.
So, for me, valuation is top of mind because I feel that uncertainty is the only certainty and I will stubbornly do a "self-preservation" [of the portfolio].
The valet officer asked: After a round of adjustments from 2021 to the present, after a relatively backward performance in 2021, it will rush to a relatively high position in 2023What are the takeaways?
Lily Liu. In 2021, I didn't particularly care about the short-term ranking, because the goal I set was that I hoped that after a relatively complete bull and bear experience, the long-term holders could really make money and the relative ranking could be passable. But it's also a lot of pressure, and if I'm numb and then not able to improve, I can't accept it. After 2021, I have found that it is very important to see more clearly that "human abilities are limited", so I must be clear about what I am good at and what I am not good at. Since the beginning of 2023, I have established a direction that it is equally important to make money as much as possible in the field I am good at, and not to lose money in the field I am not good at.
Don't lose money in areas you're not good at" This is one of the gains I have gained from investing in the past few years.
Specific to the product of Wells Fargo Value Discovery, Liu Lili will adopt a three-step strategy to discover value with a discerning eye:
1.Crossing bulls and bears, looking for opportunities with cyclical thinking.
Based on a deep understanding of the cyclical ups and downs of the market, we find investment opportunities through a cyclical perspective, pay attention to the three resonance points of business cycle, product cycle and inventory cycle, and prefer contrarian investment and left-side layout.
2.Pay attention to the "margin of safety" and seek valuation protection
The static valuation of a company is not equal to the investment value, and the valuation should be comprehensively examined from the perspective of fundamental development.
Emphasizing in-depth research and diligent turning over stones, but always having a sense of awe for the market, reserving a sufficient margin of safety in investment, and strictly limiting the downward space of the net value of the product.
3.Aim for absolute returns and fully diversify returns**
Not losing money where you're not good at it is just as important as making money where you're good at it.
Fully diversify returns**, not over-risk**, and optimize returns through portfolio rebalancing.
Value is the rudder, and opportunities are discovered
Wells Fargo Value Discovery Mix.
From January 2nd, the grand release!
The market is risky, and investors need to be cautious.
Investment is risky, ** investment should be cautious.
Before investing, investors are requested to carefully read the "** Contract", "Prospectus" and other legal documents. **Equity may be lower than the initial face value and losses may occur. The Manager undertakes to manage and use the assets in a manner of honesty and trustworthiness, diligence and responsibility, but does not guarantee a certain profit or a minimum return. Past performance and its net worth are not indicative of future performance. The performance of other ** does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of this **.
The above information is for reference only, if you need to purchase relevant products, please pay attention to the relevant regulations on investor suitability management, do a good job of risk assessment in advance, and purchase ** products with matching risk levels according to your own risk tolerance.