Towards the end of 2023, the output of domestic potash fertilizer has decreased year-on-year, according to Longzhong information statistics, from January to November 2023, the total output of domestic potash fertilizer is 970280,000 tons, down 087%, of which the output of potassium chloride decreased significantly, but the output of potassium sulfate increased year-on-year.
Data**: Longzhong Information.
Judging from the monthly production in 2023, the potassium chloride production in the first quarter was clearly at the lowest level of the year, but with the recovery of the plant's equipment in March, the output increased significantly. However, from May to August, the output of domestic potassium chloride decreased slightly compared with the previous period, and the production of manufacturers' devices fluctuated, but the start of small factories and the shutdown and maintenance time were not fixed. With the advent of winter, most small manufacturers in Qinghai began to enter the maintenance state in late November, and basically all of them were stopped for maintenance in December, and they are planned to resume in March 2024. From January to November 2023, the total output of domestic potassium chloride will be 618730,000 tons, a decrease of 8 compared with the output in the same period last year15%, and it is rumored that in 2024, both large and small factories still have plans to continue to reduce production, and the amount of domestic potassium chloride may be further reduced.
In terms of potassium sulfate, the increase in production is more obvious, especially in the output of potassium sulfate manufacturers in Mannheim, which has increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
According to the statistics of Longzhong Information, from January to November 2023, the total output of the sample potassium sulfate enterprises is 351550,000 tons, an increase of 15 over the same period last year20%。Among them, the output of resource-based potassium sulfate decreased by 3 year-on-year74%, mainly because some potassium sulfate manufacturers in Qinghai's water-salt system did not produce potassium sulfate in 2023 but switched to low-content potassium chloride, so the output of resource-based potassium sulfate decreased slightly. The total output of processed Mannheim potassium sulfate increased by 43 percent year-on-year96%。
Data**: Longzhong Information.
Judging from the operating rate in 2023, the operating rate of potassium sulfate has decreased significantly in the year, mainly due to the maintenance time of resource-based potassium sulfate manufacturers in the middle of the year, so the total operating rate has decreased significantly. However, judging from the annual start of construction in 2023, the operating rate of potassium sulfate is in a state of obvious recovery, with a large increase in output, and in the case of the increase in the demand for potassium sulfate from major downstream compound fertilizer enterprises, potassium sulfate manufacturers have always maintained a state of no inventory in the factory, and even some manufacturers' orders can be sent to about 15-30 days.
In the case of the decrease in domestic potassium chloride production and the increase in potassium sulfate production, the total amount of domestic potash fertilizer has not appeared in a large gap, although the operating rate of domestic potassium chloride is not high, but the increase in import volume is more obvious, which has largely supplemented the reduced domestic production, so from the perspective of the total amount, the domestic potash fertilizer market is still in a state of sufficiency.