This Friday, the pulp ** strong upside, the afternoon contracts all hit the limit, and the midday ** multi-contract closed the limit. Many analysts believe that yesterday's sharp rise in pulp is a valuation repair after the previous excess.
The previous pulp fell sharply or caused by irrational factors, and the valuation was revised upward after the overfall, and the bullish factors that were not traded in the early stage also began to be traded, resulting in the pulp *** Guotai Junan ** energy researcher Gao Linlin told reporters that in fact, last week in the case of no huge changes in the fundamentals and more news, the pulp showed a large ** performance in the week, and there may be irrational over-fall on the disk, making the relative valuation and absolute valuation low. She said that according to the December 7 Shandong mainstream coniferous broad-leaved **, the silver star-goldfish price spread is at 387% quantile position. At the same time, since the fourth quarter, the trend of pulp has made the early bearish basically cash, and the absolute valuation is also low. In the early stage, the production and sales of double-offset paper, which were ignored by the market in the early stage, such as the removal of pulp port inventory, and overseas prices, began to be traded, helping the pulp to overfall.
Wu Xinyang, an analyst at the soft commodity team of China Securities Construction Investment, also believes that the reversal of pulp is mainly aimed at the over-falling in the early stage. Judging from the disk trading situation in the early stage of pulp, one of the transaction contradictions lies in the pricing of the old warehouse receipts. Before the announcement of the old warehouse receipts out of the warehouse on December 1, the pulp fast** came from the trading of data, and the volume of about 100,000 tons of old warehouse receipts was higher than the open interest of about 8,000 hands of SP2312 contracts. The time when this contradiction occurred was the end of the last round of small replenishment cycle and the downstream attempt to raise prices, so after the replenishment cycle ended, the shipping pressure of the spot market brought impetus to the pulp. However, there is a possibility of over-falling in this round, and the lowest point of the main contract ** (5402 yuan tons) is close to the beginning of the third quarter of pulp, and the current global pulp inventory and domestic pulp inventory are not very supportive of falling to this**, so it may be that pulp ** over-fall connection**.
From a fundamental point of view, Gao Linlin said that there is no obvious change in the overall fundamentals of pulp. On the supply side, imports continued to grow at a high rate, with pulp imports of 322 in November700,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 296%, up 58%。There is no sign of a return to Europe in the short term. There is a divergence on the demand side. Among them, the production and sales of double-offset paper are booming, the start of construction is high, the profits still exist, and the social inventory is low;The inventory of household paper is higher, and the start of construction is weaker. In terms of inventory, Europulp data showed that European port inventories fell by 10 percent in October compared with September1%, down 52%。The inventory of domestic ports is also in a state of destocking, which supports the pulp disc surface. With the cashing out of the old warehouse receipts, the pressure on disk warehouse receipts has eased.
Li Qing, a pulp researcher at CITIC, said that the current supply and demand pattern of the pulp market mainly shows that the supply pressure continues to rise and the demand margin weakens, but it has basically been fully traded, and there is no more negative drive. From the perspective of the supply side, the domestic import volume of softwood pulp in October continued the high growth in the previous period, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 1.46 million tons, an increase of 504%, the import volume of softwood pulp was 740,000 tons, an increase of 31 percent year-on-year9%。From the demand side, the operating rate of domestic cultural paper is at a high level, which has a positive impact on the disk, but the start of toilet paper has declined, and there has been a phenomenon of accumulation, and the overall margin has weakened. In addition, from the perspective of trading, the negative factors of the fundamentals have been traded for nearly two months, and they have basically been fully traded, and in the case of the cost of the deep discount US dollar, the pulp has some support below the disk. Therefore, fundamentally, the current upside drive is insufficient.
After November, it entered the downstream seasonal off-season, after the demand weakened, the driving angle was bearish, the downstream white card and household paper started to weaken slightly, but the cultural paper still performed well, the total output of wood pulp finished paper is still at a high level, and there is still a certain rigid demand support for pulp, and from the perspective of valuation, the space below is limited. After nearly two months of continuous trading, the negative trading on the disk is relatively sufficient, the downstream paper mills in the spot market are also constantly lowing, and the progress of the new Kemi softwood pulp production is slow, which supports the pulp. Zhao Chenyu, a pulp researcher at the earth, said that in the future, the fundamentals do not support the sharp rise in the disk, and it is only suitable for the layout of multiple orders from the perspective of valuation, and the upward drive may need to wait for the Spring Festival replenishment in January next year.
Wu Xinyang believes that the current market is in the process of the end of the last round of replenishment cycle and a slight weakening of demand. Judging from the market data, the implementation of the downstream price increase letter is average, and the willingness to raise prices is obvious. The probability of this round of ** lasting is small, because it is difficult to connect with the ** stocking demand that may exist later. He said that at the end of this year, it is also necessary to pay attention to the frequency of pulp replenishment, and whether the time and quantity of replenishment can be reflected in the 2401 contract**. If it is late, it may widen the spread of the 05-01 contract.
We tend to follow up the pulp ** is still mainly oscillation, and the main contract oscillation range is 5400-5800 yuan tons. Li Qing said that the current has reached the top of the range, and there is no particularly obvious ** drive for the time being, and the follow-up needs to continue to track the transaction situation of the spot when the disk continues. Strategically, it is recommended to wait and see, in the specific situation of stagnation of the disk and the lack of downstream paper mill buying orders for softwood pulp spots, the high level of the range can consider the opportunity to sell short.
Gao Linlin believes that near the end of the year, with the arrival of the Spring Festival and New Year's Day holidays, downstream demand, especially white cardboard, may usher in a small peak, and it is expected that the disk valuation will be slightly higher after the repair. With the significant improvement of terminal demand, under the consumption expectations of the Spring Festival and New Year's Day holidays, paper prices may still be able to give some support, but under the pressure of high import volumes, pulp prices may be difficult to achieve a strong **.
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