no.1
Macro situation
The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study next year's economic work
The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2024. The meeting emphasized that to do a good job in next year's economic work, we must be guided by the thought of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the 20th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability. We will fully implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, promote high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, increase macroeconomic regulation and control, coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reforms, coordinate new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, coordinate high-quality development and high-level security, effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, improve social expectations, consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, and continue to promote the economy to achieve qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth.
**The Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, and the economic work in 2024 was systematically deployed
*The Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11 to 12, which comprehensively summarized the economic work in 2023, deeply analyzed the current economic situation, and systematically deployed the economic work in 2024. The meeting emphasized that next year, we should focus on promoting high-quality development, highlight the key points, grasp the key, and do a solid job in economic work. The first is to lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation;The second is to focus on expanding domestic demand;The third is to deepen reforms in key areasFourth, expand high-level opening up;Fifth, we will continue to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas. It is necessary to coordinate and resolve risks in real estate, local debts, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, severely crack down on illegal financial activities, and resolutely adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risksSixth, we should make unremitting efforts to do a good job in the "three rural" workSeventh, promote urban-rural integration and coordinated regional developmentEighth, we will further promote the construction of ecological civilization and green and low-carbon developmentNinth, we should earnestly protect and improve people's livelihood.
The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the price index for November
The National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI and PPI data for November 2023 on December 9. In November, CPI decreased by 05%；PPI fell 3% year-on-year and 03%。From January to November, China's CPI was 03%, and PPI fell 3 year-on-year1%。The National Bureau of Statistics said that the CPI declined in November due to factors such as the downward fluctuation of food and energyCore CPI, excluding food and energy**, was 0 YoY6%, the same increase as in October, continues to be modest**. Affected by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the weak market demand for some industrial products, the PPI in November turned from flat to declining month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline expanded.
A brief review of SDIC Taikang Trust Research Institute
In terms of CPI, it is expected to remain at a low level in the short term, and the overall CPI center may move slightly downward in 2023In the medium to long term, it is expected to achieve a moderate recovery in 2024 as market demand expands and the relationship between supply and demand improves. In terms of PPI, with the further recovery of downstream demand from industrial enterprises, the means of production** are expected to stabilize and rebound, and the means of living ** are expected to show a warming trend with the improvement of residents' income expectations and the recovery of consumer confidence.
The National Bureau of Statistics released important economic data for November
On December 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released important economic data for November: from January to November, the national investment in fixed assets was 460814 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%；In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6 percent year-on-year6%；From January to November, the investment in real estate development was 104045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94%；The total retail sales of consumer goods in November were 4,250.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101%；The surveyed urban unemployment rate in November was 50%, unchanged from the previous month. The National Bureau of Statistics said that in November, with the effectiveness of various macro policies, the national economy continued to rebound, and the next stage should increase macroeconomic regulation and control, effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, improve social expectations, consolidate and enhance the economic rebound trend, and continue to promote the economy to achieve qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth.
The National Bureau of Statistics released data on commercial residential sales** in November
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 15, the scale of commercial residential transactions in 70 large and medium-sized cities has increased, and the sales volume has continued to decline month-on-month, with year-on-year increases and declines. Among China's 70 large and medium-sized cities, 9 cities newly built commercial residential buildings in November **month-on-month**, compared with 11 cities in October;On a month-on-month basis, Shanghai rose by 06% led, and Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell 01%, down 09%, down 08%。
Beijing and Shanghai ushered in a number of property market policy adjustments
On December 14, Beijing and Shanghai successively announced the adjustment and optimization of local housing purchase policies. Beijing has optimized the criteria for identifying ordinary housing, reducing the down payment ratio for the first house to 30%, and the minimum down payment ratio for the second house is 40%.Abolish the strict control of the mortgage tenure during the period when housing prices rise too quickly, and restore it from the current maximum of 25 years to 30 years. The lower limit of the interest rate policy for new housing loans issued by commercial banks will also be adjusted, and the lower limit of the new interest rate policy will be implemented for new commercial personal housing loans issued from December 15. Since December 15, Shanghai has adjusted the standard of ordinary housing and optimized the differentiated housing credit policy, among which the minimum down payment for the first house is not less than 30%, and the minimum down payment for the second house is not less than 40%.
no.2
Financial hotspots
The State Administration of Financial Supervision held a meeting to convey the spirit of the first economic work conference
On December 13, Li Yunze, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State Administration of Financial Regulation, presided over a Party Committee (Enlarged) meeting to convey the spirit of the Xi Economic Work Conference and study and deploy implementation measures. The meeting put forward five requirements: First, adhere to the centralized and unified leadership of financial work;The second is to promote the consolidation and enhancement of the positive trend of economic recovery;The third is to promote high-quality economic development around the "five major articles";Fourth, it is necessary to prudently prevent and resolve financial risks in key areasFifth, financial supervision and control should be strengthened in an all-round way.
The central bank released China's financial data for November
On the afternoon of December 13, the central bank disclosed financial data for November, and RMB loans increased by 1 in November09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 136.8 billion yuan;The cumulative increase in the first 11 months was 2158 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 year-on-year55 trillion yuan. The increase in the scale of social financing in November was 245 trillion yuan, 455.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year;The cumulative for the first 11 months was 3365 trillion yuan, 2 more than the same period last year79 trillion yuan. At the end of November, the balance of broad money (m2) was 2912 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%.
A brief review of SDIC Taikang Trust Research Institute
From the perspective of structural data, the increase in social finance is mainly contributed by the largest contribution of ** debt, and the overall increase in entity financing after excluding ** debt is smallIn November, the credit of the residential side increased slightly year-on-year, showing a weak improvementThe marginal deterioration of the financing structure of enterprises and the further decline in the degree of capital activation still require the introduction of policies to encourage the rebuilding of market confidence.
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