"All great companies are born in the winter. The era of AI e-commerce has just begun, and it is both an opportunity and a challenge for everyone. To congratulate PDD on its decision-making, execution and efforts over the past few years. No one has been bullish, but an organization that can reform for the sake of tomorrow and tomorrow, and who is willing to pay any price and sacrifice, is respectable. Ma Yun rarely spoke out, but it was not a public statement, but a message posted by the company's employees on the intranet. On November 28, Pinduoduo's stock price rose 18% after releasing its financial results for the third quarter of 2023, with a market value of $185 billion, less than $10 billion short of Alibaba's $194.5 billion market value (as of November 29, local time in the United States, the total market value of Pinduoduo's US stocks is 18830.1 billion US dollars, the total market value of Alibaba's US stocks is 1901$6.8 billion, the difference between the two is only 18$6.7 billion). Subsequently, an Alibaba employee posted the news on the company's intranet, and Ma Yun also spoke out on this message. In the post-epidemic era, consumers' shopping concepts and lifestyles have changed slightly, and the market value of Pinduoduo, which focuses on the sinking market and cuts at every turn, is approaching the old e-commerce overlord Alibaba, reflecting the current phenomenon of Chinese consumption downgrade is particularly obvious, which is also reflected in the infinite involution of the automobile market. In the first year of the resumption of production and life in the whole society, whether the traditional peak season for car buying "Golden September and Silver Ten" still exists has been widely discussed by industry insiders. The "Golden Nine" has passed, and the number of new cars insured at 1.98 million has reached a new high in the year, making the "Golden Nine" deserved. With the "Silver Ten" of the Mid-Autumn Festival + Eleventh ** week, many car companies have launched limited-time discounts, the effect of policies to promote automobile consumption has gradually emerged, and the macro economy has continued to improveThe "Silver Ten for Car Purchase" still existsAccording to the data of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration (formerly the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission), the amount of insurance in the automobile market reached 195 in October80,000 units, down 1% from September3%。
Although there was a slight decline from the previous month, 1A 3% decline corresponds to a decrease of 250,000 units, which is within the normal fluctuation range. From the perspective of the range from January to October this year, the number of vehicles insured in a single month in October remained above 1.9 million, which was at a high level during the year. 
In terms of year-on-year growth, the amount of insurance in October was 18 compared with the same period last year2%, compared to the same period in September**65%, a significant year-on-year increase in October**. It should be noted that the year-on-year surge is due to the fact that October 2022 is the time when the epidemic is most seriously affected nationwide, and the year-on-year base is relatively small. 
Looking at the passenger car sales data released by the China Automobile Association and the China Passenger Car Association in October and the new car insurance data in October, there will be different degrees of data differences between the three due to different statistical calibers. CAAM's data comes from the production and wholesale volumes provided by manufacturersThe data for the Federation of Passenger Cars is derived from the wholesale and retail volumes provided by dealers;The data on the amount of insurance on new cars is the number of consumers who buy insurance after purchasing a new car, which is counted by the State Administration of Financial Management. In 2018, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission merged into the "China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission", the full name of which is "China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission".In March 2023, the CBIRC was renamed the "State Financial Regulatory Commission". After understanding the three statistical dimensions, it is not difficult to understand why there is a data gap between the data of the China Automobile Association and the Passenger Association and the data of the new car insurance volume. Among the three sales data in October, compared with the data on the insurance volume that can reflect the real car purchase, the sales volume of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers is 1090,000 units, 7 more than the sales of the passenger association50,000 units. This means that towards the end of the year, dealers still have some inventory pressure. 
According to the results of the October 2023 auto dealer inventory survey released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers in October was 170, up 126%, down 34%, the inventory level is above the warning line. At the end of October, the overall inventory of auto dealers was about 3.4 million units. 
Month-on-month slight decline, year-on-year year-on-year sharp rise, there seem to be factors that can not reflect the real situation, if the cycle is extended, from the past five years in October on the new car insurance volume, it can better reflect the objective situation. In the past five years, October this year is 2 more than October 202020,000 units, a new high in the same period of five years, means that there is a Mid-Autumn Festival and the "Silver Ten" of the 11th ** week, and consumers' enthusiasm for buying cars has returned to the pre-epidemic situation. In the post-epidemic era, after the automobile industry chain resumes normal production and sales, the "Silver Ten for Car Purchase" still exists. During the "Silver Ten" period, car companies generally hope to seize the "Mid-Autumn Festival + National Day" double festival effect through auto shows and first-class activities in many places, and hit the fourth quarter and annual sales targets. After the "official drop" of major car companies in September, a new round of ** battles followed in October. Many new energy car companies such as BYD, Denza, Leap, and Zeekr, as well as traditional luxury car companies such as Cadillac and Lexus, have joined the army of price cuts. BYD launched a car purchase for the frigate 07 in October to enjoy 120,000 yuan cash discount, as well as 2 years 0 interest, 5,000 yuan replacement subsidy;The DENZA brand has launched an eleventh** weekly car purchase right for the N7, and users can enjoy a deposit of 2,000 yuan to deduct the car model2The subsidy of 20,000 yuan is equivalent to a discount of 20,000 yuan;After the launch of an official subsidy of up to 10,000 yuan in September, Leapmotor T03 was extended in OctoberZEEKR 001 Cash Offer 370,000 yuan + free charging pile, car color options and replacement deductions and other rights. Among the traditional luxury car companies, the Cadillac CT5 is limited to 8,000 units in order to clear inventory, and the starting price is as low as 19970,000 yuan;The Lexus ES discount has been expanded from 3-40,000 yuan to 5-60,000 yuan. Car companies seized the traditional peak season for car purchases**, and consumers' wait-and-see sentiment gradually subsided, bringing October sales to a new high in five years. The positive trend has not changed, and the car market has been on the upsideSince the beginning of this year, China's auto market has gone through ten months of "crisis" and "opportunity". Volume**, volume configuration, volume new car, everything that can be rolled seems to have been rolled again. 
From January to October this year, the number of passenger cars insured reached 171930,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 52%, which is at the same level as the same period in 2019 and 2021 in the last five years, and has the largest absolute figure. 
New energy vehicle companies are accelerating the launch of new brands, new technologies, and new models, while traditional car companies are "struggling" to transform in various ways. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has remained at around 35%, and has continued to increase slightly, although the penetration rate of fuel vehicles has not fallen off a cliff, but there is no possibility of growth. Judging from the data of the risk volume from January to October, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in October was 367%, a slight increase of 1 from September4%, a slight increase of 1 from August6%。At the beginning of the year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles had appeared 225% of the year's low, since then, although there has been a nationwide wave of fuel vehicle ** war in March, but the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has not been affected, on the contrary, has always shown a steady upward trend. This shows that although the pressure of economic recovery in the post-epidemic era is still there, and the external environment of "encirclement and chasing cards" is still severe, consumers' acceptance and recognition of new energy vehicles are still improving, and the pace of China's car lane change and overtaking has not slowed down at all. 
According to the official data released by car companies, the monthly sales of the three and the cumulative sales of this year have hit new highs, and the annual target is close at hand. From January to October, BYD's cumulative sales have reached 23810,000 units, 79 of the annual target of 3 million units4%；Aion's cumulative sales reached 392,489 units, 78 of its annual target of 500,000 units5%；Li Auto's sales in the first 10 months reached 284,647 units, less than "half a month" away from its annual sales target of 300,000 units. 
In stark contrast to the continuous rise of independent new energy vehicle companies, joint venture car companies generally seek stability. Even without the epidemic this year, the sales volume of the top three joint ventures from January to October still declined slightly to varying degrees. According to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, from January to October, FAW-Volkswagen sold 1,470,534 vehicles, ranking first among joint venture automakers, compared to 1,482,070 units in the same period last yearSAIC Volkswagen ranked second with cumulative sales of 952,350 units, compared to 1,087,509 units in the same period last yearSAIC-GM ranked third with cumulative sales of 809,265 units, compared to 972,906 in the same period last year. In order to ensure the steady development of the automobile market, many departments of the state have frequently introduced policies to promote the development of the automobile market and automobile consumption. In July 2023, in order to invigorate automobile circulation and expand automobile consumption, 17 departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Notice on Several Measures to Invigorate Automobile Circulation and Expand Automobile Consumption";In the same month, in order to further stabilize and expand automobile consumption and promote the continuous recovery of consumption, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments and units studied and formulated the "Several Measures to Promote Automobile Consumption";In September, in order to promote the operation of the automobile industry to maintain a steady and positive development trend, and strive to achieve the annual sales of about 27 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 3%, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments jointly issued the "Work Plan for the Steady Growth of the Automobile Industry (2023-2024)" The policy continued to help, and the car companies tenaciously "involuted", so that the automobile market is still hot after the "Golden Nine" peak season, and at the same time, it also sounded the clarion call for the car companies to sprint at the end of the year. The economic recovery continues to fluctuate, and there is still suspense in the auto market sprintApproaching the end of 2023, car companies have reached the end of the year, and car companies that usually start to vigorously discount ** in November-December have begun to take action in October in this most volatile year. The automobile industry is a pillar industry for China's economic development, and automobiles are still large-scale consumer goods for Chinese consumers, so the development trend of the automobile industry is inseparable from the changes in domestic macroeconomic indicators. 
In October, the national consumer consumption index (CPI) fell by 02%, down 01%；The producers' ex-factory ** index (PPI) fell 2 percent year-on-year6%, flat month-on-month. In October, the consumption of the whole society continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 350.7 billion yuan, with a nominal month-on-month growth rate of 88%, a seasonally adjusted increase of 007%, indicating that the increase in consumption in October has the characteristics of festivals, and there is the possibility of early consumption on Double 11. In terms of consumption categories, residents' consumption of non-essential goods accelerated in October, increasing by 22 percentage points to 50%, of which, automobile consumption increased by 86 percentage points to 114%。But October car sales were 413.5 billion yuan, basically the same as the month, affected by the base of the growth rate of automobile consumption rose sharply.
In terms of real estate, another pillar of the economy, after the supply-side and demand-side policies were introduced in August, the data rebounded in September, and the data fell again in October. The decline in the new construction and construction area of commercial housing has expanded again, the completion margin has declined, and the funds in place for real estate developers are still declining. The area of new construction of commercial housing and the area of commercial housing sales may be stable at about 1 billion square meters, real estate investment is about 11 trillion yuan, and the investment growth rate has fallen to -9About 5%. In addition, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the number of cities with a month-on-month decline in the sales of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased slightly, and the sales of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing decreased month-on-month in 56 and 67 cities respectively, both of which increased by 2 from the previous month. Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities** decreased by 03%, of which Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell month-on-month. 7% and 05%, Shanghai month-on-month **02%。Second-hand residential buildings increased month-on-month by 02% turned into a decrease of 08%, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell month-on-month. 8% and 05%。
In terms of the RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate continued its trend in October, at 71775 to 7The inversion of the interest rate differential between China and the United States, the strengthening of the US dollar index and the release of stabilization signals from China's economy are the main factors affecting the stability of the RMB exchange rate this month. In terms of the capital market, the "targeted RRR cut" of the ** industry from October will further reduce the minimum settlement reserve payment ratio of ** business, from the current 16% to an average of close to 13%, and officially implement the differentiated arrangement of the minimum settlement reserve payment ratio of ** business. This move is conducive to giving full play to the allocation capacity of brokers, rationally allocating the company's funds, alleviating liquidity pressure, and thereby improving shareholder returns. On the whole, the national economy continued to recover in October, the macroeconomic control policies continued to be effective, production and supply rose steadily, market demand continued to improve, and employment prices were generally stable, but the overall economic situation was still in a state of weak recovery. Some macroeconomic researchers said that under the influence of policy incentives and economic resilience, China's economic operation has continued to be stable, and with the gradual emergence of policy effects, the operation of the economy and capital market may deduce a double warming pattern.
Under the continuous improvement of the economy, the popularity of the auto market will continue until the end of the year after the "golden nine and silver ten". Previously, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Car Market Information Association, had predicted that the annual car sales in 2023 would be 29.5 million units, a record high, and at the same time, he also expected that car sales in November this year would soar by more than 20% year-on-year. Due to the fact that at the end of the year, there are still different degrees of "internal and external troubles" among car companies, whether it is to achieve the annual sales target, or due to the price reduction of other car companies, in the last two months, all car companies are bound to increase their efforts. Users who previously chose to wait and see because of the ** war are expected to seize the last train of the "year-end promotion" and focus on "shooting". The return of the golden nine, the reset of the silver ten, and the platinum eleven are still expected.