The time came to December 7, the 61st day of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the 651st day of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
At present, the linkage between the two conflicts between Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan and Israel has been significantly enhanced, and both require the continued strong support of the United States - the meaning of international war has become more and more apparent.
More importantly, the duration of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is exceeding the expectations of many scholars and experts, it is obviously not 15 days, nor is it a month, and it even seems that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is very likely to enter 2024, which will exceed the three-month period.
In this context, Israel's long-term competition for the "US-Western military aid" that originally belonged to Kyiv has basically become a foregone conclusion, and ammunition and military strength are increasingly becoming Ukraine's Achilles' heel.
So, what choice will the world's superpower, the United States, make for this ** war that seems to have no end in sight?
1. During the sensitive period, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives once again lashed out at Biden and made tough conditions for aiding Ukraine: The Republican Party's different positions in the two conflicts between Palestine, Israel, Russia and Ukraine are very clear.
Although Biden proposed an aid package for Israel and Ukraine as early as early October, and even wrote an article in the Washington Post at the end of November to reiterate the need to firmly support Israel and Ukraine, so far, the United States has not passed Biden's aid bill to Ukraine.
Among them, the biggest obstacle is obviously the strong opposition of the Republican Party in the United States, which has led to the delay in the passage of the US Congress.
On December 5, local time, according to the British "Guardian", if Biden does not agree to strengthen US border security, the US House of Representatives threatens to withdraw support for the new financial aid package for Ukraine.
The report pointed out that the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, sent a letter to Shalanda Young, director of the US Office of Management and Budget (a division of Biden's administration), reiterating her position on the conflict in Ukraine.
It is reported that Johnson said in the letter: "Additional funding for Ukraine depends on changes to our country's border security law."
We believe that the opening of the U.S. borders is an unimaginable, unacceptable disaster. We want an immediate end to this madness.
Moreover, Biden** ignores reality and chooses to put on a political posturing rather than discuss logical reforms with congressional Republicans. We stand ready to work with ** to develop a robust border security package to protect the interests of the American people. ”
At the same time, late that night, the Democratic leader of the majority party in the US Senate, Schumer, called for not delaying the approval of aid to Ukraine, and said that against the background of a vote on the bill on December 6, the Republican leader of the US Senate called for not to support Biden's request for aid to Ukraine.
It is reported that McConnell told reporters: "I hope that all members of my party will vote against advancing this bill......We are committed to implementing significant changes at our borders. ”
In addition, Jack [gf]2219[gf] Sullivan, a consultant to the United States, said at a press conference the day before: "There is no way around simple arithmetic, and we simply cannot continue *** without funds for Ukraine."
And the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Johnson, commenting on the White House's call to accelerate the approval of aid to Kyiv, said that his concerns about the Ukraine strategy have not yet been answered, and Republicans want to consider this request together with the issue of funding to protect the country's borders.
It has been pointed out that it is obvious that the two parties in the United States are highly unanimous on the issue of supporting Israel.
But on the conflict in Ukraine, the two parties in the United States seem to have developed a fundamental disagreement – a disagreement that has moved beyond a simple calculation of interests and a different fundamental view of the future path of the United States.
It seems that it is now foreseeable: once the Palestinian-Israeli conflict becomes protracted, it will be a high probability event that Ukraine will unfortunately become the biggest loser.
So, is this view really correct?
2. A weakened United States may indeed not be able to strongly support two conflicts at the same time for a long time: There is a deep logic in the differences between the two parties in the United States, and forcing anti-Russia may be its fatal strategic mistake.
Admit it or not, the United States has indeed weakened.
It can be said that the two decades from 1990 to 2009 were the peak of the American empire (the concept of one superpower and many powers is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people), but since then, the United States has indeed been much worse than it used to be – for complex reasons, both inside and outside. One of the main reasons for this is that the countries represented by Russia, Iran, and China have made great progress in their comprehensive national strength in the past decade or so, especially in their military strength.
Of course, the fundamental reason is that a multipolar world is a historical torrent – the objective development of third world countries requires a more just and equitable national order.
However, objectively speaking, despite this, the arrival of a multi-level world still seems to be far away, and it is even destined to be a long way to go, but the United States successfully forced anti-Russia, causing it to suddenly burst out on February 24, 2022, launching a special military operation against Ukraine, and then carrying the banner of anti-American hegemony - the wheel of the times, rolling forward!
This winter, Putin is ushering in a major strategic opportunity. At the same time, it is also a major strategic choice.
Because there is a deep logic in the differences between the two parties in the United States, it means that in the context of the intensifying Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the delay and reduction of US military aid to Ukraine has become a very probable event.
Previously, on November 20, local time, the U.S. Secretary of Defense announced that the United States would provide Ukraine with a new military aid package of $100 million, which is the smallest aid since the start of the war - this is obviously a major sign!
More importantly, at a time when US global hegemony is weakening, there have been major differences between the two parties in the United States over how to consolidate its hegemony and take into account the interests of the United States at home.
So, to some extent, the conflict in Ukraine is a more complex geopolitical game, a more dangerous game for the United States, where the Republican Party is increasingly showing a desire to leave the game in a timely and dignified manner, which is more pure and more in America's own self-interest.
The Democratic Party, on the other hand, undoubtedly has more concerns, and its practical interests are fiercely intertwined with partisan ideas, always pushing it to convince itself while ignoring the huge risks behind it.
From a deeper perspective, Trump is indeed more likely to revive the United States - because the Democratic Party led by Biden is more belligerent, even militaristic!
But just as the ideas of the Jewish bloc have successfully conquered the American team, the ideas carefully promoted by the American Democratic Party have been fatal to globalists and hyper-liberals.
In other words, pragmatically, it is almost unlikely that the United States will abandon Ukraine until there is a sea change on the front line.
In other words, it is still too early to talk about a significant reduction in US military aid to Ukraine. But one thing is certain - US military aid to Ukraine will inevitably be delayed, which is also very fatal in a critical period.
There are all kinds of signs that December is a very critical period for the situation between Russia and Ukraine. It will not only deeply test the true background of the United States, but will also determine the fate of Ukraine.
And judging from the current trend, perhaps, timely peace talks are a more favorable choice for Ukraine.