The real estate policy of "establishing first and then breaking" is determined, and stable growth can be successfully transformed
* The Politburo meeting mentioned several key words,"First stand and then break"、"Seek progress while maintaining stability"、"Promote stability with progress"。The last two are well understood, the first"First stand and then break"What does that mean?That is to say, we will never give up on traditional industries, including real estate. **The Politburo meeting is the highest level meeting in the country, and the tone has been set at the top, and those who are looking forward to the collapse of the property market every day can sit back and relax.
Of course, our top management knows that China's economy needs to be transformed, China's scientific and technological capabilities need to be strengthened, and China's industry needs to be upgraded, but these are not things that can be achieved overnight, nor can they be achieved by shouting slogans in two or three years. If it were that easy, every country in the world would be economically developed.
The transition process is fraught with difficulties, and at the same time, people have to live normal lives. We don't have a time machine, and it is impossible for us to skip a transition period of more than a decade or even decades, and suddenly enter the era after a successful transformation. To put it bluntly, a smooth transition is just as important as industrial transformation.
During the transition period, it is necessary to maintain sustained positive economic growth, at least not to fall into recession, otherwise it will fall into the middle-income trap and remain in the same situation for a long time;In the worst-case scenario, economic stagnation affects social stability, which ultimately leads to failure in transformation and modernization, and economic and social setback.
Therefore, it is necessary to develop sustainable and highly profitable emerging industries, while preserving traditional industries that are important to the national economy and preventing them from declining. The development of new industries requires investment and time accumulation, while traditional industries can provide resources and capital for the former and maintain a stable environment during the transition period.
Only when society is stable and the people are happy can progress be made.
Take the real estate industry as an example, housing prices are really high, and there are many families who can't afford to buy a house. However, the industrial chain of the real estate industry is very long, involving more than a dozen upstream and downstream industries, and a large number of enterprises, all of which rely on the real estate industry for food. Your company may not be directly related to the real estate industry, but your customers, businessmen or customers, and businessmen may be a part of the real estate industry chain.
Objectively speaking, the real estate industry, as a pillar industry, has contributed to the continuous improvement of residents' income and quality of life over the years. Take the much-criticized land credit as an example: there are a lot of remarks on the Internet about the disadvantages of land credit, which is a good thing, but it is very one-sided, only saying what people like to hear, not talking about the contribution of land credit to society.
Our urban construction can be compared with many developed countries in just two decades, and our infrastructure such as roads, bridges, railways, and logistics can be said to be world-class, because we have invested a lot of manpower and material resources, which need financial resources to guarantee. Money from **?Taxes alone are not enough, and the funds obtained from land use rights make up for the lack of funds.
Without land finance, most of China's cities, infrastructure, and equipment would not be much better than India, which is without electricity for hours a day and relies on the water of the Ganges River to heal its diseases.
When the high-tech industry is real"Stand up"At that time, it can replace traditional industries as the new pillar of the times, and some traditional industries can take a back seat, that is"Broken generations"The timing of the Politburo meeting mentioned in "After the Broken Dynasty".
On December 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released price data for November this year, and the CPI for the whole year was 05%, signs of deflation appear again, if the situation is not reversed, deflation has formed, the damage to the economy will be greater than inflation.
Housing prices** are related to insufficient consumption, which is due to the lack of confidence of the people, and the biggest lack of confidence in the market is the property market. This time I mentioned"Set first and then leave", apparently reversed"Leave first and set later"The inertia reflects the intentions of the higher-ups. The Politburo meeting is at the strategic level, and the next economic meeting this month will focus more on the tactical level, and it will be interesting to see if there will be more substantive economic policies.