A-shares continued to fall this week,** mainly concentrated on Tuesday, and stabilized in the last three days. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 205% to 296956 points;The Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Composite Index fell by about 2% throughout the week, and the STAR 50 Index bucked the trend and rose slightly by 008%。The Beijing Stock Exchange, which has attracted much attention in the market in recent weeks, has sharply increased by 8 this week after last week22%。China's exports rose 0 percent in November, which was released on Thursday5%, higher than the expected decline of 11%；Imports fell 06%, less than the expected increase of 33%。This set of data can only be regarded as neutral at best, so it does not provide particularly obvious support for **. In addition, the China-EU summit on Thursday was uneventful, with no particularly surprising breakthroughs or surprises. A high-level meeting was held on Friday to analyze and study the economic work in 2024. The meeting proposed: the active fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, domestic demand should be expanded in 2024, and a virtuous circle of consumption and investment promoting each other should be formed. Judging from the spirit of the above meeting, it should be a good thing. However, for **, not only will look at the above-mentioned outline documents, the market may also need to look at the follow-up specific economic policies, and the market is eager to see the "strong enough" policy launched. Although the market will have some optimism before the introduction of specific economic policies related to stable growth, the market will generally not overreact until the details of the stimulus policy are introduced. On Friday evening, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for November was almost universally better than expected, weakening investors' expectations for a premature rate cut by the Federal Reserve. On the back of the data, the dollar strengthened on the day, while Treasury yields rose. The weakening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations should be bearish for our A-shares, but the more important factor affecting A-shares is our own economic situation or economic stimulus policies. As far as the current situation is concerned, I personally feel that the probability of a significant increase in the follow-up economic stimulus policy is relatively high, and investors may wish to continue to hold shares and wait. It is worth reminding once again that when there is no particularly big improvement in the property market and external demand, the economic stimulus policy should include "revitalizing the capital market", and it may have reached the level of "imminent". The author has opened a column on the WeChat platform, readers can directly view the author's latest views through WeChat from Sunday to Thursday evening, please pay attention to WeChat *** every bull's eye (**njcjnews) for detailsInvestments are risky, and independent judgment is important.
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Cover*** Daily Economic News Photo by Liu Guomei (data map).
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