Title: Revealing the Secret of Russia's "Local Tyrants" Military Spending Soaring: Oil Prices Rise, Indian God Operation, the Truth Is Too Crazy!
Hey, military fans and international relations fanatics, the topic we are going to talk about today is the big news that has burned the international arena - why has Russia's military spending risen like this?Where does the confidence come from?Don't worry, I'll tell you the old rules from the beginning.
First of all, aiming at Russia's new budget, military spending actually soared directly to 108 trillion rubles, a full 70% more than last year. Well, I have to say that as soon as this news came out, I, a military blogger, was about to be shocked. We can't help but ask, where did the money come from?
Russia's military spending is not a small amount, roughly around $60 billion, an order of magnitude lower than that of the United States. However, we all know that military spending is a window of national strength, and this increase is really confusing. After the Russian-Ukrainian war, well, the military spending of the fighting nations rose to $86 billion, which sounds reasonable. Looking at the current international situation, and looking back at Russia's previous performance in military agreements, well, it seems reasonable to increase military spending.
However, here's the problem. This time it was not just a small increase, but from $60 billion to $111 billion, accounting for 30% of the total budget, an increase of 70%. This can't help but surprise people, and I can't help but ask, where did I get so much money?
Okay, don't panic, let me reveal them for you.
First of all, how is the money earned?Let's take a look at the first trick: sell energy. Isn't it a bit unexpected?Isn't Russia under international sanctions?That's right, but they have two tricks to break through this sanction.
The first trick is to restore the quantity. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European Union followed the United States to impose sanctions on Russia, shouting to reduce, and then gradually ban the use of Russian energy. The result?The purchase of pipeline gas has decreased, but the purchase of liquefied natural gas has increased!In the first half of the year, EU imports of liquefied gas accounted for 52% of Russia's total exports. This means that more than half of Russia's liquefied gas exports are sold to the EU!It is said that it will be reduced, but in fact, it is not a change of soup and not a change of medicine, and you have to buy it when you should buy it!Spain, Belgium and France are among the top countries, and their ports are equipped to convert liquefied gas into natural gas before it is transported to other European countries. European countries, typical of the integrity of the mouth!
Secondly, the second move is to break through the ** limit. Laos, the United States and the European Union have imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products, stipulating a maximum of $60 per barrel, $45 per barrel for fuel oil, and $100 per barrel for diesel. But the result?It's not good!Russia still sells. In August this year, the average Urals in Russia was $74 per barrel, well above the limit price. Then Saudi Arabia came to assist and reduce production!Saudi Arabia cut 1 million barrels per day, and Russia cut 300,000 barrels. The volume is less, ** has risen, and the price of oil has risen from $87 to $90. Looking at this increase, Saudi Arabia is simply a god assist!
According to this ** estimate, by the end of the year, Russia will earn 1 trillion rubles, or $11 billion, from selling oil and gas. With this money, Russia has made a big move. Raise tax rates on energy companies and shackle large enterprises. The income tax for natural gas companies has been increased from 20% to 34%. In addition, there are some super-large oligopolistic companies that directly charge a one-time 10% windfall profit tax. Add to that the increase in some energy export taxes, such as a 7% increase in the export tax on coal, to export 200 million tons a year, which can collect more than 2.7 billion US dollars a year.
Therefore, Russia really has nowhere to find it in its iron shoes, and it takes no effort to get it. Breaking through Western sanctions, catching up with the rise in international oil prices, coupled with Saudi Arabia's assistance, they made a lot of money all of a sudden, which is the confidence for them to greatly increase military spending.
However, there is another thing, which is the most eye-catching stroke of Russia's operation - India, a new big customer. This guy actually made two moves, one is to buy discounted Russian oil, and the other is to "wash oil".
Let's talk about the first trick first, why did India become a big customer of Russia?It turned out that it was because they bought Russian oil quite well. In the first eight months of this year, India imported 69.06 million tons of Russian oil, equivalent to 1.85 million barrels a day, with an average of $83 per barrel, which is cheaper than Iraq's $90 per barrel. This means that India has saved $2.7 billion, and Modi can't be happy no matter how he looks at it
Moreover, India not only buys, but also sells. They snapped up a lot of Russian oil, and they didn't need so much, so they processed and refined the surplus oil into oil products, and then sold it to countries that sanctioned Russia. This operation has a resounding name in the industry - "washing oil". It may sound like money laundering, but legally, it's legal. India quickly made up for the EU's sanctions on Russian oil products, such as aviation fuel, which was sold to the EU at 150,000 barrels per day before the war and rose to 200,000 barrels after the war. This year, more than half of India's aviation fuel exports are from the European Union, and more than 60% of the refining raw materials are from the United States. It's so absolute, it's not okay if you don't accept it!Some people say that India lacks virtue in doing this, but they responded simply: "After washing oil", it will not be a Russian product, which has a positive effect on stabilizing the energy market and meets the needs of the West, and should be thanked.
The third brother is the third brother, and he has to be cheap and good. Of course, it cannot be denied that Russia is an energy power, and once his exports are blocked, the international energy market will be affected, and the energy needs of the West will not be satisfied. Therefore, despite the scolding of the West, in fact, it still has to buy.
Some people may ask, is Russia too optimistic about this operation?Well, there is indeed some element of optimism. At present, the international price is $78 to $83 per barrel, which shows that the price of the international market has been reduced. Because commodities are affected by supply and demand, if there is too much, it will decline. The future movement of oil prices mainly depends on two factors, one is the development of the world economy. At present, the global economic slowdown and the limited growth of energy demand may lead to oversupply, and the other is whether the members of the oil organization OPEC+ can reach a consensus on production cuts, otherwise it may only be for a while.
Overall, Russia's optimism may be a bit overdone, but OPEC's estimates of global oil demand are also optimistic. Of course, these are just a kind of **, and we have to wait for time to verify.
Finally, I will leave you with a food for thought. Why do you think the West has been able to tolerate these "divine operations" of India?Perhaps, this is a wonderful phenomenon in international relations that makes people puzzled.