Recently, a piece of news caught Nansheng's attention. The message said that the dollar is relative toRMBIt is overestimated by about 18%, thus making China's GDP underestimated. According to the Goldman Sachs report, the basis for the overvaluation of the dollar is:U.S. Dollar IndexIn 1032 to 1042 pips interval. However, it needs to be clarified here that Goldman Sachs Group's statement that the dollar is overvalued by 18% is not referring to the sameRMBCompare, but relativelyA basket of currenciesof the weighted averageChanges in exchange rates。ThisA basket of currenciesIncluding the euro, the Japanese yen,British pounds, Canadian dollars,Swedish kronaand the Swiss franc. Therefore, mistaking it for rightRMBOverestimating 18% is wrong.
Such a misreading may be due to the pairU.S. Dollar Indexis caused by inaccuracies in understanding. U.S. Dollar Indexis used to measure the dollar pairA basket of currenciesofExchange ratedegree of change, whileRMBThe index consists of 24 indices, including the US dollarCurrency。Therefore,U.S. Dollar IndexwithRMBindexCurrencyDepending on the type, the weight distribution is also different. Since the euro is inU.S. Dollar Index, which has the highest weight of 576%, hence the dollarChanges in exchange ratesIt is most closely related to the euro.
Although we are not yet able to draw a US dollar relativeRMBThe degree of accurate overestimation can be based onWorld BankThe conversion factor in the published purchasing power index statistical rules is extrapolated. According to 2022 data,:RMBThe purchasing power ratio to the US dollar is 399。This means that it costs 399 yuan to buy a basket of goods in ChinaRMB, while you would have to pay $100 for the same item in the United States. According to this calculation, relativelyRMB, the real purchasing power of the dollar may be overestimated by more than 40%.
This estimate far exceeds the 18% that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is referring to. The reason for such a large gap is mainly because the overvaluation of Goldman Sachs Group is relative to a fewCurrencyThe weighted average of .
However, although based on the results of the projection of the purchasing power index,RMBThere is a large degree of undervaluation relative to the US dollar, but this does not meanRMBIt should appreciate substantially. This is because of different country pairsRMBThere is a difference in demand with the US dollar.
The U.S. dollar as the world's largestReserve currency, its demand is more extensive. Many countries and regions use the US dollar as a reserve asset, and there is even a rush to buy the US dollar and its assets from time to time. This situation led to the dollar'sExchange ratewas pushed higher while lowering other non-US dollarsCurrency(Including.)RMBin).Exchange rate
In contrast,RMBThe internationalization process is still in its infancy. RMBAs the world's largest exporter of goods, it needs to maintain a certain number ofExchange ratecompetitiveness to promote exports and seize international market share. Too fast and too bigRMBAppreciation may hinder exports to the detriment of our countryEconomydevelopment.
Therefore, we should be aware thatRMBofChanges in exchange ratesshould be with our countryEconomyand to gradually achieve a steady wave forward. Too fastExchange rateAppreciation is not in the interests of our country and is easily exploited by international speculators, rightRMBof internationalization.
With all that said, we have to clarify the US dollar relative toRMBThe phenomenon of overestimation. Although the results of the purchasing power index projections show that the US dollar is relative toRMBReal purchasing power may be overestimated by more than 40%, but this does not meanRMBIt should appreciate substantially. Exchange rateThe path of development should be with the stateEconomyActual matching, and gradually realize steady wave forward. In addition, we also need to recognize that different countries have different pairsRMBand the difference in demand for the dollar, as wellRMBThe current situation and challenges of internationalization.
In short,Exchange rateThe changes are complex and changeable, and various factors need to be taken into account. We should maintain an objective and rational attitude and not blindly pursue itExchange rateappreciation, but according to the countryEconomyDemand, seekExchange rateStable and reasonable regulation. In this way, we can better serve our countryEconomyDevelopment andRMBinternationalization.