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China Times reporters Zhou Mengting and Huang Xingli report from Beijing.
2023 was originally regarded as a year of recovery for liquor consumption, and at the beginning of the year, both institutions and the industry remained optimistic about its development. However, the follow-up development has surprised many people, and industry dramas such as upside down, channel destocking, peak season is not prosperous, and exhibitions are frequently staged.
In the outgoing 2023, China's wine industry is still in a new cycle of structural adjustment, the complexity and instability of the global economic environment are intensifying, and the changes in the world's leading policies and tariffs are affecting the competitive landscape of the wine market and posing new challenges to the wine industry. Wang Xinguo, president of the China Liquor Circulation Association, said this to ** reporters, including reporters from the China Times, at the 2023 Liquor Industry High-Quality Development Forum and Tencent News Wine Rhyme Forum on December 28.
Wang Xinguo pointed out that the high-quality development of China's wine industry should give full play to innovation and resilience. In his view, under the new cycle, the wine industry is facing a new consumer group, consumer demand and consumption environment, and it is difficult to do without innovation, and it is unfavorable without innovation.
The period of industry adjustment continues.
2023 will not be an easy year for most wine companies. I thought that this year would be the year of recovery of liquor consumption, but the momentum of recovery seems to be only highlighted in famous liquors such as "Mao Wuyang".
At the beginning of 2023, liquor consumption ushered in a good start, and the cars waiting to pull goods at the door of the distillery formed a long queue, but from the second quarter, the cold signal began to appear, in April, the spring sugar and wine fair, which is known as the barometer and weather vane of the liquor industry, although the popularity is hot, but the signing data has decreased significantly, and at the same time, liquor stocks have also been in this period for many days**, and the industry and outside the industry have shown more complex emotions for the future development of the liquor industry.
Talking about the current situation of the liquor industry this year, on December 28, Zhang Chuanzong, founder and CEO of Shijiufang, told people including the reporter of "China Times" at the above forum that they were full of expectations for consumption after the epidemic, but the results did not meet expectations. Qin Shuyao, secretary-general of the China Liquor Circulation Association, also believes that this year's wine industry has indeed encountered relatively large difficulties from the perspective of the micro specific market.
In recent years, the Matthew effect of the strong and the weak is an important feature of the liquor industry, and in 2023, this phenomenon will intensify again, according to the "2023 Annual Report on the Development of China's Liquor Industry" released by the China Liquor Association, one-third of the liquor companies in the first half of the year have suffered losses.
On December 29, Kweichow Moutai released data on its production and operation in 2023, showing that it is expected to achieve a total operating income of about 149.5 billion yuan in 2023 (of which the operating income of Moutai is about 125.8 billion yuan and the operating income of series liquor is about 20.4 billion yuan). In addition, the senior management of Wuliangye also revealed at the recent dealer conference that the company will successfully complete the annual marketing goals and tasks in 2023.
However, in addition to the strong resilience of industry leaders and strong regional brands, the survival pressure of more wine companies is more difficult. According to public data, from January to November 2023, the liquor output of enterprises above designated size in the country was 39580,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, the total annual output of liquor is expected to decline slightly, and the output of the liquor industry has declined for the seventh consecutive year. It is understood that in the first half of 2023, there will be 983 liquor enterprises above designated size and 333 loss-making enterprises in the country, with a loss of 338%, the loss exceeded 2 billion yuan (widening to more than 2.3 billion yuan by July), and is expected to hit a new high in recent years.
Xiao Zhuqing, an expert in the marketing of Chinese consumer goods, told the China Times that in 2023, "involution" will become the first of the top ten keywords in China's wine industry in 2023.
In Qin Shuyao's view, the liquor industry has seen a rise in volume and price in the past few years, which itself is contrary to the objective law of development, but the industry has undergone three adjustments in the past 20 years, and after each adjustment, the industry will develop more healthily. Enterprises that can go through the cycle need to do brand and culture with heart, and grasp the product characteristics, and it is difficult for companies with speculative properties to cross.
Generate channel momentum.
In the past two years, the key topic around wine companies has been destocking. In its 2023 China Liquor Market Interim Research Report, the China Liquor Industry Association bluntly stated that digesting inventory is the top priority in 2023.
If they want to eliminate inventory, wine companies are also racking their brains. Zhang Chuanzong revealed that in 2023, the company will reach strategic cooperation with Xiamen Airlines and 21st Century Real Estate, etc., and then actively promote their wine products.
Liquor companies have always been the traditional sales channel of distributors, but with the rapid development of the Internet, online e-commerce channels have become the target of many large liquor companies. In March 2022, Kweichow Moutai's online sales platform "i Moutai" was officially launchedIn September this year, Xijiu cooperated with Alibaba Cloud to create the official e-commerce platform "Junpinhui". Qin Shuyao also believes that the development momentum of e-commerce, including integrated e-commerce and live broadcast e-commerce, is undoubted, and it will definitely become an important part of the channel of China's wine industry.
Online channels are considered to be one of the directions for liquor companies to break through in the future. Hao Hongfeng, chairman of Jiuxian Group, said at the above forum that under the strong promotion of tens of billions of subsidies on the four major platforms and the average subsidy of 10% for spirits, the proportion of online alcohol sales will reach 20% for the first time by the end of 2024, and e-commerce brand enterprises will achieve new development, so he is full of expectations for traditional channels, Internet brands, ** and other channels in the wine industry in 2024.
Liu Xu, chairman of Yemaijiu, agreed, pointing out that there are huge opportunities in any cycle. He said that in the next two to three years of adjustment period, many manufacturers may develop and will develop very quickly, and there will be many businesses that will become particularly large liquor circulation operators.
Broaden consumption scenarios.
In addition to the need to expand at the channel level, the main problem facing the entire liquor industry is how to attract young people.
With the diversification of the liquor market, contemporary young people do not seem to be enthusiastic about the choice of liquor. According to the "Research Report on Alcohol Innovation among Young People" released by Rees Consulting on December 21, 2022, young people prefer low-alcohol alcohol, with only 112% of young people like alcohol above 30 degrees, and in the choice of alcohol, liquor is also ranked after beer, wine, fruit wine and plum wine, which is comparable to whisky, at the same rate of 9%;But in terms of cost, young people spend nearly ten times more on whisky than on liquor.
At present, young people are not keen on liquor, and how to conquer the young group has become an important topic that liquor companies need to complete. For this reason, many liquor companies are implementing joint cross-border activities this year in an attempt to attract young people, the most well-known of which is the sauce-flavored latte launched by Kweichow Moutai and Luckin, which was out of stock as soon as it was launchedIn addition, Shanxi Fenjiu has also cooperated with Danish chocolate brands to launch Baijiu Jiuxin chocolate;Gujing Gongjiu cooperated with Baxi Ice Cream to launch a strong aroma original ice cream.
As for the cross-border liquor, Xiao Zhuqing** 2024 liquor cross-border co-branding will usher in an upgraded version, Xiao Zhuqing told this reporter that through the analysis of consumer behavior trajectory and hobby trajectory, a clear consumer portrait can be completed, based on the popularization of mature big data precision marketing technology and cross-border cooperation between super brands in different industries, China's liquor industry 2024 cross-border will usher in an upgraded version.
For the development of the liquor industry in 2024, Yang Guang, chairman of Beijing Zhengyitang Strategic Consulting Agency, pointed out that enterprises with resilience, change and action have completed the adjustment in 2023, and 2024 and 2025 are the key to a new round of cycle take-off.
2024 will be a year of differentiation and action. Zhang Chuanzong believes that with the maturity of the soy sauce wine industry chain and the overall differentiation of consumption power, 100 yuan soy sauce wine will be a huge market, and 2024 is precisely the time for the next new cycle or new decade of real innovation.