Before the festival, the A-share market was three consecutive yangs, and the weekly ** was reversed, but it was a pity that the transaction was rapidly reduced after the enlargement.
In particular, the last trading day (1229th) transaction is only more than 800 billion. It feels like the last three trading days of 2023 are caught off guard**, more likeContextual behavior
Because, stockholders know that the bear market is more violent**.
The logic is also very simple: If a strong rally starts here, then there is no need for the bulls to make a big show on Thursday, Changyang tells Xiao ** that it has come, hurry up and get in the car.
On the other hand, the current market valuation does not support the market trend and systematic further progressAfter all, the market valuation is now lower than it was at 1,664 and 998.
According to the statistics of Moufu**, the current price-to-book ratio of all A is 143 times, already below 2005998 points in June (but the price-to-book ratio was 1..)65 times), 1664 points at a price-to-book ratio of 206 times, 1849 points in 2013 P/B ratio of 15 times, with a price-to-book ratio of 2646 points in 2020 of 156 times.
In other words, there is valuation support below, and more transactions need to be continuously amplified and confidence needs to be continued to be restored upward.
Unfortunately, at present, the number of families has not been substantially improved, and the recovery of confidence is obviously not something that can happen overnight.
So,Medium-term perspective, the direction of the least market resistance is obviously still sideways, continue to build the bottom and grind the bottom. Short-termOr because of the inertia driven by the emotions of the new year and new weather, there is a high probability that it will be suppressed for 60 days and fall back.
Because of the short-term technical situation, it is indeed good for the market, specifically: on the 5-minute, 15-minute and 30-minute cycles, the current ** bullish divergence, the trend is upward. However, MACD is suspected of stagflation, and the market is slightly weak. Here, either Changyang will rise and go up to a higher level, or you can only move the center of gravity downwards and exchange time for space.
60 minutes, on the day and week, the MACD golden cross is rising, the green column is shortened or the red column is beginning to appear, and it is gradually getting better.
The technical characteristics of the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index converge with those of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the bulls dominate more obviously. In particular, the strength of the gem weight Ningwang may make the Shanghai market form a technical upward resonance.
i.e. on the time periodShorter periods (5 minutes, 15 minutes, and 30 minutes) have correction appeals, while slightly longer periods (60 minutes, daily K, and weekly**) indicate that the market has just begun, and the bulls are in full swing. Combined with the amplification of trading volume, it did not significantly exceed expectations.
Traceability subjective judgment,After the inertia of A-shares rose on Tuesday, there is a high probability that it will have to fall back ** and continue to build a bottom.
Finally, a few pieces of news that may have a significant impact on the market.
In January, the production and sales data of major automobile manufacturers were released, and the overall continued to be gratifying and exceeded expectations, which is conducive to the further upward expansion of the new energy direction that began to strengthen last Wednesday.
According to the announcement, a sports car delivered 18,618 vehicles in December 2023, a year-on-year increase of 119%;In 2023, a total of 144155 units will be delivered, a year-on-year increase of more than 29%. In December 2023, AITO delivered 24,468 new cars, an increase of 29% month-on-month96, a total of 94,380 units will be delivered in 2023, and the M7 and M9 will be sold. A car announced that it will deliver 50,353 new cars in December 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1371%。
2. The New Year's Day travel data is gratifying, and the Spring Festival is approaching, and consumption is in the peak season, which is conducive to the market to find new force points and breakthrough points.
According to the data, the number of domestic air ticket bookings during the New Year's Day holiday exceeded 2.7 million, an increase of about 16 times. According to the China Railway Group, the first day of the holiday is the peak of passenger flow, and it is expected to send 15 million passengers. Compared with December 31, the first day of New Year's Day last year, the passenger flow increased by 3 times, and compared with the first day of New Year's Day in 2020, the passenger flow on January 1, 2020, increased by nearly 60%.
3. This week, the market value of the two cities was about 7577.3 billion, down 3921%, good for the market. In terms of IPOs, there were a total of three new shares subscribed on the local exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing this week, and only two on the main board, which is also good for the market.
4. GXB wrote that it will strengthen the construction of infrastructure such as 5G, data centers, and computing power, and look forward to the layout of future industries, open up new tracks for future industries such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, and quantum, and focus on rare earths, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, 5G and other advantageous industrial chains to forge a number of "killer" technologies. The article almost covers the hottest sectors and directions in the current market, and the "mass base" of these directions is very good, and the good can often play a role in the effect of four or two thousand pounds.
In other words, in the process of post-holiday inertia, the theme track may significantly outperform.
The article is a collation and reflection of traceable investment ideas, and does not constitute investment advice, for reference only).