In 2023, there is still the last trading week left, and whether the A** market can regain confidence at the end of the year must be the most concerned issue for the majority of investors.
Towards the end of the year, the battle point between the long and short sides of A-shares has moved down from the 3,000-point mark to 2,900 points.
In such a situation, there are several facts that cannot be questioned.
First, no one can really pinpoint where the absolute bottom is.
Second, the further down the index goes, the closer it actually gets to the bottom in the true sense of the word.
Third, the further down the index goes, the lower the market sentiment becomes. When emotions are at absolute freezing, bottoms follow.
Fourth, when everyone realizes that the bottom has appeared, the mood has actually picked up significantly, and at this time, the great opportunity for the left layout is missed.
So now, when the end of the 2023 natural year is about to end and the new year is about to begin, is the great opportunity to lay out A-shares on the left side?
First of all, let's take a look at the important events on the news side of this weekend.
On Friday, the General Administration of Press and Publication drafted the "Measures for the Administration of Online Games" (draft for comments) to solicit opinions from the public, causing great concern in the market. On the same day, the stock prices of Tencent and NetEase plummeted, the A-share game sector suffered a heavy setback, and the game ETF suffered a fall limit. At the end of the week, the relevant person in charge of the National Press and Publication Administration made further statements on the draft for comments.
According to reports, the relevant person in charge of the National Press and Publication Administration said that the draft for comments is based on ensuring and promoting the prosperity and healthy development of the online game industry, clarifying the solution to issues such as the access of online game business units, setting up a special chapter on "guarantees and rewards", and proposing a series of incentive measures. At the same time, provisions are made for the protection of the rights and interests of minors and consumers. In the process of drafting the draft for comments, the opinions of relevant departments, industry associations, enterprises and other parties were widely listened to through a variety of methods. The person in charge said that the public solicitation of opinions on departmental rules is a process of listening to opinions more widely and improving the provisions of the regulations.
On Friday, Tencent Holdings' share price plunged 1235%, the biggest one-day drop since its listing. At the same time, Tencent's single-day turnover was as high as HK$40.6 billion.
On December 22, Tencent Holdings announced that it repurchased 359 on the same day0000000 shares, repurchased ** at 263Between HK$8 and HK$317, the total payment is HK$1 billion.
It is worth mentioning that Tencent has recently repurchased a large number of shares of the company. Since November 20, Tencent has repurchased shares almost every trading day, mostly 1.2 million to 1.3 million shares.
In addition, Zhang Wei, vice president of Tencent Games, said that the draft of the new management measures does not fundamentally change the key elements such as the business model and operation rhythm of games. The regulatory authorities have issued a draft of the new management measures to solicit opinions from the industry and society, which is believed to be more conducive to the orderly and healthy development of the game industry.
It can be expected that at the beginning of next week, the biggest focus of the entire market will still be in the game sector, which is an important "winner and loser". If the game stock can withstand the pressure and usher in the ** again. Then, the mood of the whole ** will pick up. Conversely, 2,900 points may still be tested.
Next, from the perspective of the time period of the index's operation, we will briefly discuss the overall judgment of 2024.
Let's look at the Shanghai Composite Index first, from 1990 to 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index has gone through 33 years.
Judging from the Shanghai Index year**, there have been 5 times that the annual line has been twice negative, namely in 1994 and 1995;2001 2002;2004 2005;2010 2011;2022 2023.
Whenever the Shanghai Composite Index has two consecutive negative years, the third year will appear**. Among them, in the five years from 1996 to 2000, only 1998 was adjusted, and it almost came out of the five-year bull market. The Shanghai Composite Index also rose from more than 500 points to above 2,000 points.
From 2001 to 2005, it was also a relatively long bear market cycle, but there was no annual triple yin, and in 2003, the Shanghai Composite Index was **10%. After two consecutive years of decline in 2004 and 2005, the market ushered in a super bull market in 2006 and 2007. Since then, it has fallen for two consecutive years in 2010 and 2011, and it was also weak in 2013.
Let's take a look at a few more important indices.
CSI 300 Index.
2004 In 2005, the CSI 300 Index fell for two consecutive years2010 and 2011 were two consecutive clouds. From 2021 to 2023, the CSI 300 Index suffered a rare three-year consecutive negative season, with obvious structural bear market characteristics.
Similar to the CSI 300 Index, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is a first-class stock index, which has also fallen for three consecutive years in the past three years.
Looking at the CSI 1000 index of small-cap stocks, due to the bull market in 2015, it fell for three consecutive years from 2016 to 2018, and then for three consecutive years**. In 2022 and 2023, the CSI 1000 Index has fallen for 2 consecutive years, will it continue to fall next year?
There are two other important indices that must be looked at.
One is the ChiNext index, which has also been running for 13 years from 2010 to 2023.
Among them, 2011 and 2012 fell for 2 consecutive years, followed by a super bull market in 2013 and 2015. Then, from 2016 to 2018, the GEM fell for three consecutive years, until CATL gradually became the largest heavyweight stock on the GEM after its listing, and after profound changes in the GEM pattern, it ushered in a three-year bull market. In the past two years, the ChiNext index has been negative for two consecutive years, and after the heavyweights such as CATL, Mindray Medical, and Oriental Fortune have been significantly adjusted, will they continue to adjust next year?
Finally, the STAR 50 Index, as the youngest and most important index, the STAR 50 Index fell by 3135%；The cumulative decline in 2023 has reached 12%. In the coming 2024, can the Science and Technology Innovation Board bring surprises to the market?We'll see.
Finally, take a look at the port ** field around you.
Since 1980, the Hang Seng Index has only fallen three times in 2000 and 2002. In the last 4 years, from 2020 to 2023, the Hang Seng Index has made history for 4 consecutive years of decline. Among them, 2020**34%, 2021**1408%, 2022**1546%, and this year's decline has reached 174%, that is. In the past four years, the Hang Seng Index has shown an accelerating** trend. When Hong Kong stocks have fallen for 4 consecutive years, will there be a trend of falling for 5 consecutive years next year?I believe that every investor will have their own answer to this question.
Investments are risky, and independent judgment is importantThis article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for trading, and you enter the market at your own risk. Cover***Visual China-VCG41155285322 per reporter Zeng Zijian per editor Peng Shuiping
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