Recently, a number of foreign financial institutions have released their 2024 China macroeconomic outlook reports. In the view of foreign institutions, China's macro economy is expected to further recover and stabilize in 2024 with investment continuing to increase, consumption to maintain recovery, exports expected to improve, and a number of positive signals have been released one after another.
UBS's latest "China Economic Outlook 2024-2025" report mentioned that it is expected that China's real household income will continue to improve in 2024, driving consumption growth. In the manufacturing sector, investments related to the green transition will remain strong.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s "2024 China Macroeconomic Outlook" also believes that China's consumer side may continue its recovery momentum in 2023 in 2024.
Fidelity International's 2024 Global Investment Outlook, released at the beginning of the month, believes that China's economy has entered a recovery cycle, and a series of policies launched since July this year have begun to bear fruit, and China's macro economy is expected to stabilize in 2024.
In an exclusive interview, the chief economist of Nomura** China, Japan's largest brokerage, said that China's economy has many growth opportunities, and China's urbanization will face a new adjustment, which is also one of the important growth points of China's economy next year and even in the next few years.
Foreign financial institutions: China's economy continues to pick up momentum.
Where does this faith come from?The reporter interviewed the chief economists of these foreign-funded financial institutions and listened to what they had to say.
Hayden Briscoe, Head of Asset Management, Hong Kong, UBS: We recently raised our profile for China's gross domestic product (GDP). We believe that China's economic recovery will be a long-term process, and strong growth will have far-reaching implications. Therefore, looking ahead to 2024, we are very bullish on China's GDP.
At a hotel on Beijing's Financial Street, Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura**, has just returned from attending the annual macro meeting in Singapore. He told reporters that at the annual meeting, journalists and organizations from various countries are still most concerned about China.
Lu Ting, Chief Economist of Nomura** China: We have a Q&A session after each presentation, and most of the questions are about China. There are many aspects that people are concerned about, such as the rate of China's GDP growth next year, the strength of fiscal spending next year, and what bright spots China's economy will have next year.
Lu Ting said that Nomura had also raised the value of China's economy before, and the supporting factors for China's economic rebound next year were very clear.
Lu Ting, Chief Economist of Nomura China: In many aspects of policy, finance, currency, real estate, including the introduction of foreign investment, increasing opening up, including support for private enterprises, I think it is obvious that it has taken a big step forward.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist of J.P. Morgan Chase China, who lives in Hong Kong for a long time, made a special trip to Beijing in the past few days to study the market and participate in seminars. He believes that investment will be an important contributor to China's economic growth in 2024. With the support of fiscal and monetary policies, the growth rate of China's infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate in 2024.
Zhu Haibin, Chief Economist of JPMorgan Chase China: There are several obvious economic bright spots, and the traditional troika, such as manufacturing investment, infrastructure, especially investment in new infrastructure, has benefited from policy support and still maintained a relatively strong growth.
The endogenous driving force of the economy is sufficient, and emerging industries are concerned by foreign investment.
In addition to remaining optimistic about China's macro economy, a number of chief economists interviewed also continue to be optimistic about emerging industries with outstanding bright spots.
According to the economists surveyed, achieving a green and low-carbon transition has become a global issue, and the green potential of the Chinese market provides them with unprecedented opportunities and space.
According to the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Business Confidence Survey 2023, 95% of companies surveyed plan to decarbonise their operations in China by 2050, and 46% plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030.
Fu Haining, Head of Equity Investment of Schroder Bank of Communications Wealth Management: Green and low-carbon projects are also a new direction for these foreign companies to invest in China, in fact, these new production capacity, whether in China or abroad, has a very broad application space.
In addition, as a major country in the application and circulation of artificial intelligence, foreign institutions are also very optimistic about China's international competitiveness in scientific and technological innovation.
Hayden Briscoe, Head of Asset Management, UBS, Hong Kong: We are particularly bullish on artificial intelligence, and any industry related to environmental, social and governance, or sustainability, because China is the world economic leader in this area.
In addition, a number of chief economists said that the investment value and safe-haven attributes of RMB bonds have become more prominent, and China's bond market has shown strong investment attractiveness. About 90 of the world's top 100 asset managers have invested in China's bond market.
*: CCTV news client.