As a leading enterprise of heparin API in China, Jianyou has maintained a steady development trend in recent years. With the continuous changes in the domestic and foreign markets, the company is also actively adjusting its strategy and expanding into new business areas. This article will analyze the continuous recommendation logic of Jianyou shares from the following aspects.
1. The heparin API stock business is expected to recover.
Heparin API, as the stock business of Jianyou Co., Ltd., although it has been affected by the domestic and foreign markets in recent years, with the gradual depletion of the inventory of European and American customers and the recovery of the market, the business is expected to recover strongly in 24 years. The main reasons include: European and American customers have been cleared for more than a year and will resume procurement to pre-epidemic levels;The non-regulatory market API** has bottomed out, and the overall expectation is that there will be a certain recovery in 24H2. While the recovery will not be drastic, it is expected to gradually return to pre-pandemic levels within 2-3 years.
Second, the domestic preparation centralized procurement benefit.
At present, the two major products of Jianyou Co., Ltd., Yinuo and Naqu, have been included in the scope of centralized procurement. After centralized procurement, although the ex-factory price decreased slightly after deducting expenses, the single profit contribution was stable and did not have much impact on the company's profit. Moreover, the rapid increase in volume of these varieties after centralized procurement has further promoted the growth of the company's domestic preparation business. In addition, the company's domestic preparations have basically been centrally purchased, and it is expected to achieve a 20% profit growth next year.
3. Overseas preparations have entered the cashing period.
Jianyou's overseas preparation business has become an important growth point for the company. Currently, the Company's formulation sales in the United States include heparin and non-heparin formulations. Among them, heparin preparations belong to the stock and cornerstone business, and the growth rate is expected to maintain 10-15% in the future. Non-heparin preparations mainly rely on the number of ANDAs before 24 years, and after 24 years, they mainly rely on large single product quantities and biological drugs. Large single products include white violet, glatiramer, liraglutide, insulin, etc., and the sales of each product are expected to be at least 20 to 30 million US dollars, while the expected volume of products such as insulin and white violet is higher. Driven by the U.S. formulation business, the company expects to achieve a revenue volume of 600 million US dollars in about 26 years. In addition, the company's enoxaparin sales in non-U.S. regions also performed well, with a small base but a relatively fast revenue growth rate. Overseas preparations are expected to maintain a growth rate of 40% in the next 2-3 years.
Fourth, there is basically no risk of inventory impairment.
The inventory impairment risk of Jianyou shares is basically risk-free. The main reasons include: most of the inventory structure is low molecular weight heparin APIs, of which 80-90% face the best markets in Europe, America and Spain and for their own use, so there is no risk of impairment in this part;The crude products purchased by the company are the first of the risk of impairment, but the amount is very small, and has been processed into APIs, and it is expected that the company's inventory cost will return to the market level next year.
Fifth, the preparation export direct sales platform to increase the valuation.
As one of the very few domestic preparation manufacturers that conduct direct sales in the United States, Jianyou has opened an omni-channel sales model for all departments in the United States with enoxaparin. At present, the company's revenue and profit level have verified its strong overseas export and sales capabilities. In the GPO channel in the United States, Jianyou shares have a strong right to speak. In the future, the company will become a professional cooperation platform for domestic preparations export demand, and further enhance the company's valuation level.
6. Performance expectations and valuation space.
According to our **, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Jianyou shares in 2023-2025 will reach. 46 and 173.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of % and 29% respectively. According to the 24-year segment valuation, the API is 3.5-5 billion, the domestic preparation is 4.5 billion, the overseas preparation is 200-23 billion, and the CDMO is 2 billion, and the overall valuation is about 300-34.5 billion
Note: The data and opinions in this article are provided by the Galaxy Pharma team and are for reference only.
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