"Guoxuan's market value is 36 billion, and the hive will have to finance 15 billionBig A sent out a soul torture. However, now, the plan to raise 15 billion yuan from the secondary market has been temporarily "folded", and SVOLT has chosen to withdraw its listing application.
According to SVOLT's reply, "other financing options will be considered in the future". If it is listed on the Hong Kong stock market, it will inevitably face the possibility of a valuation downgrade: if it is discounted by 20% on the basis of a valuation of 60 billion, it will be comparable to the last round of post-investment valuation. If the stock price is cut in half like China Innovation Airlines, then it may have to be folded to Series B.
But it's not all bad news. While financial investors are feeling a little pressure, state-owned institutions may have made money. You must know that SVOLT has landed 8 major production bases across the country, and the economic benefits brought to relevant cities are gradually emerging.
60 billion super unicorns and the "four IPO issues".
Since its independence from the Great Wall Motors system in 2018, SVOLT has been making great progress. After 7 rounds of financing in 5 years, it has rapidly grown into a super unicorn with a valuation of 60 billion, and is the seventh largest power battery manufacturer in China. But in the matter of listing, after all, it is still a step slow.
On December 22, after a long year of waiting, SVOLT withdrew its listing application. In response, SVOLT said, "The company has decided to withdraw the A-share application and consider launching other financing options based on various factors and the best interests of the company and its shareholders." ”
Previously, the Shanghai Stock Exchange threw out 23 questions in the first round of inquiries, including Great Wall Motors, related party transactions, revenue and profit, cash flow, etc. To sum up, the following four points are the most critical - which also gives a wake-up call for the next financing market focus:
First, independence. From the perspective of shareholding structure, after independence in 2018, the shares of Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motors, have been diluted. However, Wei Jianjun controlled a total of 40 companies through Baoding Ruimao and Great Wall Holdings26% equity, 7681% of the voting rights.
Secondly, from the perspective of business revenue, from 2019 to the first half of 2022, the sales amount of SVOLT from Great Wall Motors and its subsidiaries was 81.2 billion yuan, 164.9 billion yuan, 36$6.1 billion and $198.3 billion yuan, accounting for the total revenue of each period37% and 5695%。It is obvious that in 2022, the proportion of revenue of ** Great Wall Motors will decline significantly, but it will still contribute more than half.
Second, make a profit. SVOLT did not make a profit, and its losses widened. According to the prospectus, from 2019 to the first half of 2022, SVOLT's losses gradually expanded. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -32.6 billion yuan, -700 million yuan, -11$5.4 billion and -89.7 billion yuan. Of course, SVOLT also has reasons, due to the high intensity of R&D investment, the ramp-up of production capacity, and the growth of raw material procurement.
Third, the scale of financing. SVOLT has thrown out a financing demand of 15 billion yuan, second only to Hua Hong Semiconductor, which has raised 21.2 billion yuan, and Syngenta, which has raised 18 billion yuan, this year. Syngenta terminated its IPO in June. Hua Hong Semiconductor's revenue in 2022 will exceed 16 billion and its net profit will exceed 3 billion, which is not very comparable.
Fourth, valuation. According to the prospectus, the overall valuation of SVOLT reached 60 billion, with a valuation of 1341 times, Pb is 3115 times. The market share of China Innovation Airlines in the same track is 902%, 2022 revenue of 203HK$700 million, net profit of 6HK$93.5 billion, PE (TTM) 4283 times, PS is 153 times, pb is 083 times, with a current market capitalization of only HK$31.2 billion.
From these four questions, the previous market view can also be confirmed: it is difficult for companies with structural overcapacity and no profitability to land on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in the short term. From the submission of the listing application in November 2022, SVOLT has to withdraw the application now, as SVOLT replied, "This withdrawal may be a helpless move due to changes in the market situation." ”
In the crazy year of 2021, there will be phased overcapacity
The market is really changing.
According to the prospectus of SVOLT Energy, SVOLT has completed 7 rounds of financing, raising a total of more than 20 billion yuan. Of the more than 20 billion in financing, more than 90% of the funds were invested in 2021. This year, SVOLT completed 4 rounds of financing, including Series A, Series A+, Series B and strategic financing.
2021 is the key node of power batteries.
On the raw material side, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in East China in January 2021 was 54,600 yuan**, and by the end of the year, the average price** was 282,000 yuan, an increase of more than 5 times. At the end, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 will soar by 2 million to 3.26 million, with a growth rate of 156%, which is the fastest growth rate in recent years.
The price of raw materials has skyrocketed, and terminal sales have exploded, making the power battery production capacity in the intermediate link relatively insufficient. This undoubtedly accelerates the financing speed of power battery companies.
Not only SVOLT Energy, China Innovation Airlines completed 12 billion yuan of equity financing this year;Sunwoda completed 39RMB 1.5 billion fixed increase;Gotion Hi-Tech received more than 8 billion yuan of investment from Volkswagen the year before.
Power battery manufacturers, which have obtained sufficient ammunition, immediately announced expansion plans. SVOLT alone has released seven expansion plans, with a total investment of 77.6 billion yuan. At the end of the year, SVOLT released the "Lingbee 600" strategy, announcing that it would increase its global capacity planning target to 600GWh by 2025.
Yang Hongxin, chairman of SVOLT Energy, said when explaining the current industrial involution: "In 2021 and 2020, the (power battery) market is very tight, and everyone sees an opportunity. However, as soon as the market expanded, the growth rate fell, and the speed of expansion did not fall, and there was a phased surplus. ”
In addition, there is another point worth mentioning.
In addition to the Great Wall, many Chinese automakers are (or plan to develop) their own batteries. Needless to say, BYD said. GAC Group announced in August 2022 that it would invest 10.9 billion yuan in the industrialization of its own batteries, and at the same time participate in the construction of a battery production base project in Guangzhou Juwan Technology.
SAIC and Ruipu Lanjun jointly established Saike Ruipu to engage in power battery projectsAt the same time, it jointly develops solid-state power batteries with Qingtao (Kunshan) New Energy.
Geely Automobile has invested in more than 10 large-scale battery projects, with an investment amount of more than 110 billion yuan and a planned production capacity of more than 306GWh.
In October 2022, NIO invested 2 billion yuan to establish NIO Battery Technology Company.
If the vast majority of new energy vehicle brands have to develop their own batteries, the competition of power batteries will also escalate. This is undoubtedly a dilemma: if you don't develop your own battery, then according to Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, "you are working for CATL";Self-developed batteries, a huge investment is a bottomless pit. Why 15 billion for honeycomb energy?Doesn't it illustrate the "hunger and thirst" for capital?
Therefore, the final result is that every company is losing money, and everyone has to be "transfused". As one Xueqiu user commented, "The gross profit margin of the head (enterprise) is less than 20%. In addition to Ningwang in this industry, which of the local enterprises is making money?”
Yang Hongxin tried to give a time point to make money, "After the excess, everyone may not continue to invest (on a large scale)." However, market demand may still be growing at 30%-40% ......If everyone tends to be rational now, and some companies are eliminated again, the market will be balanced between supply and demand after 2025, because the market is still growing at a high speed. ”
The implication is that scale is the priority, and the matter of making money will be seen in 2025.
77 institutions are waiting to withdraw, and state-owned capital is the first to earn
Waiting with the hive, there are also the investors behind it. There are 83 shareholders behind SVOLT, including 77 institutional investors, excluding Great Wall Motors, SVOLT executives and employee shareholding platforms.
These 77 can be divided into four categories:
The first is market-oriented investment institutions, such as Shenzhen Venture Capital, IDG, China Renaissance Capital, Oceanpine Capital, Advantage Capital, CDH Investment, etc
The second category is the industrial side, some of which include Xiaomi Automobile, Xiaopeng Motors, Sany Heavy Industry, etc.;The other part is the upstream first-class business that Great Wall Motors has close ties with, such as Han's Laser, Xingyu Shares, etc.;
The three categories are national and local state-owned institutions, such as advanced manufacturing industry, Sichuan Energy Investment, Jiangxia Green, etc
The fourth category is the investment institutions under the bank, insurance and ** companies. Such as Industrial Bank, CCB Investment, Taikang Investment, China Merchants Equity Investment, Kaiyuan, etc.
Most of these institutions entered in Series A and Series B (Series B+), when the post-investment valuation of Series A financing was 14.3 billion yuan, the post-investment valuation of Series B (B+ round) was 36.3 billion yuan, and the last round was 46.2 billion yuan. If it is listed according to the previous valuation of 60 billion, the A round returns 420 times, round B 165 times, 1 in the final round30 times.
However, if it is listed on the Hong Kong stock market in the future, the valuation will be discounted. A few days ago, another power battery manufacturer, Ruipu Lanjun, landed on the Hong Kong stock market, with a current market value of 4362.5 billion. Prior to this, the market value of China Innovation Airlines, which landed in Hong Kong stocks, had fallen to 31.2 billion. are far lower than the valuation of 60 billion yuan of Honeycomb Energy.
If the market value of SVOLT Energy is 20% off on the basis of 60 billion in the future, it will be comparable to the post-investment valuation of the last round. If the market value is cut in half like China Innovation Airlines, then Series B investors may lose money.
But the good news is that while market-oriented institutions are worried, some state-owned institutions may have already made money.
State-owned investment institutions at the provincial and municipal levels such as Sichuan, Shangrao City, Jiangxi Province, and Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province injected capital during the 2021 Series A to Series B+ rounds. At the same time, SVOLT has also set up production bases in Chengdu, Shangrao, Yancheng and other cities.
Let's take the landing in Sichuan as an example.
In 2021, Sichuan Energy Investment participated in SVOLT Energy's B+ round of financing. Subsequently, SVOLT announced the establishment of production bases in Chengdu, Suining and Dazhou.
Among them, the total investment of the Chengdu base is about 22 billion yuan, and the total planned production capacity is about 60GWh. After the completion of the project, it is expected that the annual output value will exceed 50 billion yuan. The total investment of the Suining base is 9.5 billion yuan, with an annual production capacity of 20GWh of power battery packs and a total annual output value of about 14 billion yuan. Dazhou Honeycomb Energy Lithium Battery Zero Carbon Industrial Park, with a total investment of 17 billion yuan, can achieve an annual output value of 63 billion yuan after all are completed and put into operation.
This data may be too abstract, so let's make a comparison.
According to the "Recruitment Smart Investment Promotion System" under China Ventures, in 2022, foreign enterprises will invest a total of 360 in Suining8.1 billion yuan, with a total investment of 531 in Dazhou3.3 billion yuan. This means that SVOLT's total investment in the local area accounts for a quarter to one-third of the annual local investment.
Of course, the investment driven by SVOLT is not a one-time investment, but a phased and continuous investment. However, the annual investment scale of billions of dollars is enough for the local government to do it as the number one project to attract investment.
Moreover, the local employment opportunities created by SVOLT cannot be ignored. According to the statistics of official reports in Chengdu, Suining and Dazhou, SVOLT will create about 20,000 jobs in Chengdu, Suining and Dazhou. According to the recruitment information consulted by the author, the salary level of these positions is 5,000-10,000 yuan per month (there are differences in different types of work). This provides a job opportunity for young people in Suining, Dazhou and other places with good pay.
It can be seen that the capacity expansion project of power batteries has a huge impact on the GDP growth, industrial development and employment environment of third- and fourth-tier cities in the central and western regions. Moreover, with the agglomeration of upstream and downstream industries, the economic benefits that can be generated will also have a multiplier effect. "Whatever the honeycomb energy needs, we attract. In a previous report in "Sichuan **", the relevant person in charge of the Suining investment promotion department said so.
Therefore, although the listing is suspended, the withdrawal time of state-owned institutions has been delayed. However, the attraction and implementation of production capacity projects have brought tangible economic benefits to various regions. In the short term, state-owned assets may be the "most certain" category of all investors.