Since the beginning of November, corn has been climbing, but now it is starting to fall as weather expectations are realized. Although the Northeast and North China have both stopped and appeared slightly, most farmers holding grain equivalents still have some concerns. So, what will be the future trend of corn **?Next, this article will do a brief analysis. The starting point of this round of *** is the Northeast port, and there are two main reasons. First of all, the drop in temperature and continuous rain and snow weather have led to the reluctance of farmers in the producing areas to be reluctant to sell corn, which makes the purchase of the producers rise, and also increases the farmers' reluctance to sell. Secondly, the southern feed enterprises have increased the purchase of domestic trade corn, which has led to the intensive shipping schedule of the North Port, and the first merchants in the port intend to raise the first grade. However, although the contract is not high, the price increase of the Hong Kong business is not large.
As of November 27, the mainstream corn purchase in Jinzhou Port was only 25 yuan tons, while the purchase of Bayuquan Port was only 30 yuan tons. From the perspective of deep processing enterprises in Northeast China, due to the impact of rain and snow, the average daily arrival volume of deep processing enterprises fell by about 45% this month. They began to deliberately increase their purchases to encourage farmers to increase their corn, which is also an important reason for corn in Northeast China. This month, the acquisition of deep processing enterprises has increased by about 100 yuan tons. Since November 23, as the impact of snowfall has gradually decreased, farmers' willingness has increased, gradually increased, and the arrival volume of deep processing enterprises and the collection volume of Beigang Port have also increased.
In North China, the Northeast corn has driven North China at the same time, farmers' reluctance to sell has caused the price to fall to a low point. Due to the relatively low inventory of deep processing enterprises and the good processing profits, there is a rigid demand for corn, which supports the corn in North China to a certain extent. To sum up, this round of corn is mainly affected by weather factors and the intensive shipping schedule of northern ports due to the purchase of domestic corn by southern feed enterprises. However, in this case, because the contract ** is not high, the price increase of the ** business in Hong Kong is not large. As the weather gradually improves, farmers' willingness to increase, gradually increases, the arrival of deep processing enterprises and the volume of Beigang port collection also increases, merchants and enterprises begin to suppress purchases, and corn also begins to fall.
As some farmers show their willingness to increase their willingness to produce corn, the purchase volume of deep processing enterprises continues to remain high, so the operation of corn in North China is relatively weak. As of November 27, the corn purchase of Shandong deep processing enterprises was 2,670 yuan, 34 yuan tons from October 31, but down 368 yuan tons from the same period last year. Does this mean that corn will be substantially larger?Through the observation of the progress of grain sales, it can be found that according to the data of mysteel statistics, as of the end of last week, the average grain sales progress in Northeast China was 19%, 2% faster than the same period last year, while the average grain sales progress in North China was 24%, 1% faster than the same period last year. This indicates that farmers are relatively slow to sell their grain after harvesting.
However, due to the current low level, it is difficult for farmers to change the pace of grain sales in the short term. In addition, the terminal grain enterprises, whether it is feed breeding or deep processing enterprises, have not shown a strong willingness to continue to build warehouses, but have adopted more strategies according to market changes. They flexibly adjust their acquisitions** according to the volume of arrivals, so that the supply and demand relationship in the market remains relatively balanced. This means that corn is unlikely to be substantially large. From the perspective of negative factors, from the beginning of December to the Spring Festival is the grain sales season of corn in Northeast China, and the enthusiasm of farmers is high, and there may be selling pressure in the later stage. In addition, the large number of imported corn and substitute products makes the market relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, the import of corn has been lowered by 50-100 yuan, which may further stimulate downstream grain-using enterprises to use alternative corn.
The current losses of feed breeding enterprises have intensified, which has also intensified the expectation of feed demand in the later period, which is negative for corn. From the perspective of positive factors, the current reserve is still in the stage of intensive replenishment, which supports the bottom of the corn **, and deep processing enterprises also have procurement demand for new grain. In addition, the inventory in the channel is low this year, and there is also the possibility of price increases in the event of weather and logistics problems. To sum up, with this round of corn, the domestic corn market has recently entered a state of long and short interweaving, and the space for corn is very limited, and it is in a dilemma, and corn may enter a narrow range of fluctuations and run within a range.
In short, although the purchase volume of deep processing enterprises remains high, due to the slow progress of farmers' grain sales and the cautious attitude of terminal grain enterprises to build warehouses, it is unlikely that corn will be significantly larger. However, due to the existence of bearish factors, corn ** is also unlikely to be large**. As a result, corn** is expected to fluctuate in a relatively stable range. When farmers and businesses buy and sell corn, they should make sound decisions based on market dynamics to reduce risks and ensure maximum profits.
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