To save the property market, medicine can't be stopped!
At the beginning of 2024, the property market quickly played a set of serial punches. In just a few days, the central bank, financial management departments, and first-tier cities have taken turns.
Behind these moves, a huge plan gradually surfaced......
At the beginning of the new year, Guangzhou threw a thunderbolt on the property market.
On January 5thGuangzhou issued the city's first "room ticket" in the Shiweitang old renovation projectThis is also the first time that a first-tier city has launched a housing ticket resettlement in the renovation of old or urban villages.
From August last year, Guangzhou proposed the placement of real tickets, less than half a year, the room tickets have officially landed in Guangzhou, and this efficiency is really amazing.
Immediately afterward, Shenzhen issued a heavyweight document to renovate the city's urban villages.
There are two most striking points in Shenzhen's document.
First, the scale of the transformation is amazingThis time, Shenzhen's urban village transformation is aimed at all urban villages in the city.
That said, this will involve 2The total building area of 200 million yuan is more than 40% of the total construction volume and 60% of the residential population in Shenzhen.
The second is to adopt a similar urban village transformation model as Guangzhou, which is dominated + net land transfer.
At about the same time, there was also a big movement in the affordable housing.
On January 5, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Financial Supervision (FSA) issued an opinion on financial support for the development of the housing rental market.
There are a total of 4 opinions, including increasing credit support for housing rental, supporting the supply-side reform of housing rental, supporting the issuance of operating loans for housing rental, and guiding all kinds of social funds to invest in the field of housing rental in an orderly manner.
To sum it up,State-owned assets and social capital are encouraged to acquire the stock of commercial housing in the market for the construction of affordable rental housing and long-term rental housing, while the state provides financial and credit support.
One move after another, the property market, what kind of big chess is in the next game?
Whether it is the transformation of urban villages or the construction of affordable housing, they are all pointing to the biggest problem in the current property market
Destocking.
Starting in 2022, the unsold rate of completed residential buildings in Malaysia has reached 32%.
Although it is not as high as before 2016, the current demand for housing is definitely not as high as before 2016.
From the perspective of the decontamination cycle of cities of different energy levels, the decontamination cycle from second-, third- and fourth-tier cities has exceeded 20 months on average.
More and more cities and regions with high inventory are stuck in an endless loop.
High inventories - housing prices trampled - land cannot be sold - local incomes plummeted
The only way to solve this dilemma is to destock.
The demand for housing purchased by the transformation of urban villages has been accurately introduced into the property market through house tickets.
In the case of the room ticket launched in Guangzhou, it contains information such as the type of room ticket, the purchase address, the face value, the amount of policy incentives, and the use of the redemption period.
MoreoverThe scope of use of Guangzhou room tickets is not limited to the region and is common throughout the city, but you need to select **Supermarket**.
Also, if you already have a house in your name, thatThe room ticket in Guangzhou is also allowed to be transferred onceHowever, it can only be transferred between the assessees of the project.
It greatly increases the flexibility and freedom of room ticket placement, which is a very good model.
Also, we have talked many times before about the benefits of room ticket placement. It's a way to benefit the villagers, both the villagers and the developers.
Villagers have more choices and autonomy in their homes;
* Reduced costs, saved land, and shortened the transformation cycle of urban villages.
Developers do not need to build relocated houses, which saves costs and is conducive to the removal of new houses.
Secondly, although the scope of this round of urban village transformation is limited, only concentrated in 23 super megacities, Shenzhen has set the tone for this round of urban village transformation with a desperate attitude, that is.
**Dominant, large-scale, high-efficiency.
This time, Shenzhen clearly mentioned in the implementation opinions on the transformation of urban villagesDistrict ** is responsible for carrying out relocation, compensation and resettlement and other related work.
Before Shenzhen, almost all of the urban village transformation plans in Guangzhou and Shanghai were dominant.
The advantage of this is obvious, and the difficulty of transforming urban villages is greatly reduced with administrative intervention.
For example, Guangzhou has raised the transformation of urban villages to the legislative level, which is to prevent "nail households" from slowing down the process, and Shenzhen also mentioned it in this opinionDemolition of newly-built urban village renovation projects shall be ...... with the consent of more than two-thirds of the property rights holdersbefore it can be implemented.
In this way, the efficiency of urban village transformation will be greatly improved, and the scale will also keep up.
Compared with the transformation of urban villages, it is more direct to destock affordable housing.
State-owned assets will purchase commercial housing and then use it to build affordable rental housing. This solves both the housing problem in the city and the high inventory in these areas.
In fact, whether it is the transformation of urban villages or the acquisition of commercial housing, there are already cities exploring.
In 2022, Zhengzhou fired the first shot of housing tickets, and Suzhou, Huzhou and other cities have tried to repurchase commercial housing with state-owned assets.
Why didn't you make a splash?
The reason is simple: there is no money, and the local wallet cannot hold it at all.
So, where does the money come from now?
Don't worry, the money has arrived.
As soon as the beginning of the year, the central bank released words on its official website350 billion PSLs have been granted to the China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China, the three major policy banks(Collateral Supplemental Loan).
After a year's absence, the central bank restarted the PSL again, and the amount of money injected also hit the third highest in history.
The main purpose of the new round of PSL is the construction of affordable housing, the transformation of urban villages and the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, that is, the "three major projects".
The so-called PSL, the Chinese name is mortgage supplementary loan, to put it bluntly, it is a special way to print money.
The central bank issued special money to the three major policy banks, and the policy banks lent the money to the local governments in the form of long-term low-interest loans, and the local governments took the money to carry out shantytown reform or urban village transformation, and then returned the money after they had profits.
And the reason why this kind of loan was created is because of the monetization of shantytown reform that began in 2014.
At that time, PSL, as the main fund for shantytown renovation**, played an extremely important role in that round of the property market downturn.
According to data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, from 2016 to 2020, more than 23 million new shantytown reform projects were started, with an investment of about 7 trillion yuan.
The PSL has accumulated 259 trillion yuan, corresponding to a leverage multiple of 25-3 times or so.
That's right, the great thing about PSL is that it is a base currency, and you can understand this money as a high-energy currencyIf this money is put out, it will swell.
And the current multiplier for the currency is 8.
In other words, the current 350 billion PSL can be derived from a maximum of 28 trillion broad money m2.
Local governments can also issue special bonds. The total amount of special bonds for the reconstruction of urban villages, plus PSL loans, is expected to reach more than 800 billion yuan.
With PSL as the foundation, the house ticket is used to accurately guide the property market, and then the capital is introduced to destock the property market.
It can be said that the path of supporting the property market through the three major projects is already very clear.
In the past two days, Qingdao has received 18With a loan support of 500 million yuan, 2,319 houses were acquired as affordable rental housing.
The three major projects are quietly pressing the accelerator button.
How much impact will it have on the property market?
To be honest, it's more like a "backing" than a "thrill". It doesn't have much of an impact on house prices.
But after the water diversion for the property market through the three major projects, it willAccelerate the formation of China's dual-track housing system.
The transformation of urban villages is confined to 23 megacities, and is mainly aimed at revitalizing land in the core areas.
Therefore, the more core areas, the faster the transformation of urban villages will be, and the more obvious the driving effect on the value of surrounding land will be.
If the resettlement of housing tickets is carried out according to Guangzhou's method and does not restrict the selection area, then the core area will also siphon the nearby demolition villagers.
Therefore, the transformation of urban villages is mainly beneficial to core cities and core areas.
For unsalable houses in the suburbs, they will be repurchased as affordable housing to solve the high inventory.
More and more suburbs will lose development opportunities and become pure sleeping cities.
Replacing the core area of the city has become the trend of the times.
In 2024, the differentiation of urban values will intensify!