Since the "black swan" of the Russia-Ukraine conflict flew out in early 2022, under the unprecedented sanctions and suppression of Europe and the United States, there have been endless reports about the Russian economy or being dragged downNow, as 2023 comes to an end,Instead of collapsing like Western analysts, Russia's economy is showing good resilience, even ahead of many of the economies that have imposed sanctions on it
According to the data, Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew year-on-year in the third quarter of this year from 4.% in the previous quarter9% acceleration to 55%, which not only exceeded market expectations, but also the fastest growth rate in more than a decade (except for the special post-pandemic period). By contrast, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.0 percent in the third quarter9%；Germany's GDP shrank by 01%, a year-on-year contraction of 04%；The final year-on-year GDP of the euro area in the third quarter of this year was 0%. Japan's economic performance was even worse over the same period: Japan's real GDP fell by 05%, a whopping 21%。
In fact, Russia's economic performance in 2023 can be described as quite impressive:In addition to GDP growth above the world average, the country's industrial and wage growth rose to double digits, while unemployment also fell to record lows。On December 14, Russia's ** Putin said at the "annual stocktake" event in Moscow that the country's GDP is expected to grow by 35%。In 2022, the Russian economy shrank by 21%。This means that the Russian economy is in the middle of last year's decline. In addition, Russia's industrial production and manufacturing sectors both grew, and the unemployment rate fell to 2 for the first time9%。Putin also said that the size of the country's foreign debt has fallen from $46 billion to $32 billion. This is a testament to both macroeconomic stability and the stability of the financial system.
Thanks to the fact that the Russian economy still shows good momentum in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and deep sanctions, the Central Bank of Russia has also gained ample room to raise interest rates in response to the problem of high inflation to ease the pressure on people's livelihood on the supply side. On 15 December, Russia's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by a massive 100 basis points to 16%, the fifth rate hike since July this year, and the benchmark rate rose to its highest level since April 2022.
Since the emergence of the Great Inflation in the global economy in 2022, Russia's annualized inflation has been in the high range of more than 10% for most of 2022. Between March and June this year, Russia's inflation data fell below the target value of 4%;However, it has since risen again. However, unlike the depreciation of the ruble caused by Western sanctions last year, the upward inflation this year is mainly driven by the internal circulation of the real economy represented by the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry. In order to curb inflation, the Central Bank of Russia began to raise interest rates in July this year;But inflation remains stubbornly high. In November, inflation in Russia reached a high of 75%；Inflation in Russia remained high at 747%, close to the Central Bank of Russia 7%-7The upper limit of the 5%** range. "Current inflationary pressures remain significant," the central bank said in its December interest rate statement, "and inflation returns to target in 2024 and stabilizes further at a level close to 4% assumes that tight monetary conditions will be maintained for a long time." ”
In a sense, in the almost two years since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Putin has achieved the "impossible triangle" – ensuring macroeconomic stability, allowing people to live and work in peace and contentment, and providing sufficient funds for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although the Western camp has adopted a large number of sanctions aimed at suppressing Russia's economy and fiscal revenue after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's economic growth and consumer demand have shown good resilience driven by reasonable and effective policy guidance and sufficient spending, and all kinds of enterprises, including export-oriented enterprises, have gradually adapted to the deep sanctions environment.
And these may also be beneficial to Putin in 2024. Next year's elections in Russia will be held on March 15-17. On December 8, local time, Putin announced that he would participate in the 2024 ** election. It is reported that Putin is 71 years old this year, and the term of office of the current ** will end on May 7, 2024. Under Russia's constitution, Putin can seek a second term until 2036 after this term. If he can win and be re-elected in March 2024, it will be his fifth time as Russia**. According to the latest poll conducted by the Russian polling agency Public *** on December 7, 70% of the Russian people surveyed believe that Putin should be re-elected. A number of Russians, including Russia's former Dmitry Medvedev, have made it clear that they support Putin's re-election bid. 
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