Elon Musk gave a five-minute speech at the University of Southern California Business School in 2014, in which he summed up his views on work and life into five points, which were the key to his decision.
You've probably heard that thinking about this from a physical point of view. That is, don't use analogy. The best way to tell if something is reasonable is when you break things down into the most basic parts you can think of, and then make inferences from those bases.
It's not easy to think about it, maybe you can't think about everything in this way, because it's very energy-intensive. But if you're looking to gain new knowledge, that's the best way to think. This architecture was created and developed by physicists, and as a result, some phenomena that violate intuitive laws, such as quantum mechanics, were discovered. So, it's a very effective, very effective way. Anyway, I'll do it whenever I can. ”
This is not the first time Musk has mentioned in public the "first principles" he has always admired.
How does first principles work?
Musk once explained this concept in detail in an interview with TED: "There is a good thinking framework in physics, and it's like first principles, and we do the same." Considering the consequences of such a decision will only lead to tiny iterations. The first-principles mindset is a way of looking at the world in a physical way, which can peel away the layers of a thing, leaving only layer after layer. It's a lot of brains. ”
In particular, how do first principles work in practical decisions?
Take Musk's vacuum capsule train as an example, if you design a new train in a comparative way, most people will choose to improve its performance, make it more powerful, and make it more powerful. However, when first principles are used to analyze product demand, it is necessary to return to the fundamental goal of transportation: to move more goods from one place to another, which was the original purpose of building transportation such as trains, rather than the necessity of using traction. Based on first principles, Musk proposed a new idea, that is, to use magnetic levitation and low vacuum technology to create a high-speed vacuum capsule train.
Musk also gave an example that Tesla once encountered a thorny problem when developing electric vehicles: the battery was too high. At that time, the market price of lithium-ion batteries was $600 per kilowatt-hour, and the current market price is very stable, and there will be no large fluctuations in a short period of time.
However, Musk is considering this question from the standpoint of first principles: what materials is a battery pack made of?How about the raw materials of the battery?If we buy the raw materials and assemble them into a battery, how much is it?The answer is that it only costs $80 kilowatt-hour.
First of all, he wants to study the material of the battery, and then calculate the value of each material, then calculate the value of each material, and then calculate the cost of each material, and finally come up with a new battery, and it is under this line of thinking that Musk has the possibility of bringing electric vehicles to the market. Most people would think that this is impossible based on the current situation in reality, but Musk thinks that since it is physically possible, then he must be able to.
In his Biography of Elon Musk, the famous biographer Isaacson also mentions the concept of "first principles" several times. As early as when Musk first entered the aerospace field, he had already mentioned it in this book.
At that time, his first plan was to build a small rocket that could send rats to Mars.
However, Musk was a little worried, and it would be too bad if we saw a small mouse slowly dying in a small spaceship, so he came up with the idea of launching a miniature greenhouse on Mars. This greenhouse will land on Mars and return the greenery to Earth.
He believes that the public will be so excited that they can't wait to send more spacecraft to Mars and do more. The project is called "Mars Oasis", and Musk expects it to cost less than $3 million.
The question now is how to build an inexpensive rocket that can send a small greenhouse to Mars. As a result, there is one place where he can get a rocket for very little money, and that is Russia.
Musk plans to go to Russia in person to see if he can make a rocket or something, and by the way, get some rockets or something. However, this journey has been much more difficult than expected. When Musk spoke, he had spoken about turning humanity into a multi-planetary race, and the Russians scoffed at it.
At the beginning of 2002, Musk traveled to Russia again, which was his second destination. The most important thing for Musk to come over this time is to buy two "Dnepr" rockets, an old missile, which has been transformed into a missile. But the more he bargained, the higher the **. In the end, he agreed, and the ** of the two Dnepr rockets was 18 million, but it was rejected, one for 180 million dollars. "I'm angry, but after being very angry about it, I've reworked a new solution," Musk said. ”
He was upset by the sky-high price offered by the Russians, so he applied first principles to his research and built a model of a rocket launch in his mind. So, he came up with a concept called the "idiot index" to measure whether the cost of manufacturing a product is higher than the raw materials it needs.
If a product has a high "idiocy index", it is certain that more efficient production processes can be used to significantly reduce its costs. And the rocket has an extremely high "idiocy index". Musk mentally calculated the cost of carbon fiber, metals, fuels and other raw materials: according to the current production process, the final product is more than 50 times more than the raw material.
If humans want to get to Mars, they will have to completely transform the technology of rocket manufacturing. Relying on second-hand rockets, especially old ones imported from Russia, is impossible to advance in space science and technology. So, on the way back, Musk opened his notebook and opened an electronic **, listing the materials and costs needed to make a medium-scale rocket.
Coincidentally, Tesla's "first principles" also played a key role. Since the beginning of 2017, Musk and von Hozhausen have been iterating on the idea of a Tesla minivan.
Von Holzhausen took the traditional design of the Chevrolet Saurold and placed a Solold in the studio so that they could study the different sizes and components. Musk said he wanted to build a more exciting minivan that would amaze everyone. So they looked at some of the coolest cars in automotive history, most notably the El Camino a retro futuristic sports car built by Chevrolet in the 1960s. Von Hozhausen also designed a pickup truck, which had a similar character, but after the two men walked around the pickup truck, they found that the shape of the pickup truck was "too soft". "The car looks beautiful, not as sturdy as a pickup," von Holzhausen said.
Musk later mentioned a design that inspired him, and that was the late 1970s British sports sedan Lotus Esprit, a sports sedan with a wedge-shaped tip. In particular, he has a soft spot for Lotus "Esprit" who starred in James Bond's 1977 film "007: Underwater City". Musk spent nearly $1 million to buy the car used in the film and place it in Tesla's design room for exhibition. The brainstorming process was interesting, but it didn't generate exciting ideas. They went to the Peterson Automotive Museum and got something unexpected out of it. "We recognise that the shape and production technology of the van have hardly changed for more than 80 years.
As a result, Musk set his sights on more basic topics, starting from the perspective of "quantum mechanics", and proposed what kind of materials should Tesla use to make the body of a truckBy rethinking materials and even Xi the mechanics of the car, Tesla can open up a whole new path.
Von Hozhausen: "At first, we included aluminium because its durability was very important. However, it was at that time that Musk became intrigued about how to build a rocket ship out of sleek stainless steel. He believes that the same applies to pick-up trucks. The stainless steel body does not need to be painted and is able to withstand some of the structural loads of the car. The idea is truly different and takes a whole new look at the means of transportation.
After weeks of discussions, one day, Musk came to the company and said briefly: "We're going to build a small truck made of stainless steel." Charles Kuiman is a materials engineer at Tesla Inc. and SpaceX. One of Musk's strengths is that several of his companies share engineering know-how with each other. Kuiman invented an ultra-hard stainless steel that could be "cold rolled" without heating, and Tesla patented it. These materials are strong and inexpensive, and can be used to make both trucks and rockets.
Tesla's decision to adopt stainless steel for electric vehicles has important implications for automotive engineering. The steel body plays the role of the car's load-bearing, and it was the frame that used to play such a role. Musk proposed: "We can concentrate all the power on the outer layer, so that the whole body is like the exoskeleton of a car, and all the parts are installed inside." "The use of stainless steel also opens up completely new possibilities for this truck.
Stainless steel exhibits better performance when dealing with straight lines or sharp corners than body panels with graceful curves carved with a stamping machine. This gives designers the opportunity to discover futuristic, avant-garde, and even design ideas that don't seem so harmonious at first glance.
The reason why Musk advocates "first principles" so much is because of his control over costs.
Musk attaches great importance to cost control, not only to spend money, but also to accomplish his ultimate goal, which is to colonize Mars.
In the aerospace industry, he questioned the fact that the parts he was priced by the auto industry were not satisfactory to him, because the cost of such parts was usually more than ten times that of similar parts in the automotive industry. His focus on cost, combined with his innate control, led him to develop a mindset to produce as many parts as possible in his own company, rather than sourcing from suppliers.
Mueller recalls that when SpaceX needed a valve, the supplier offered $25,000**. Musk said they had a dark heart and told Mueller, "We should produce it ourselves." "They were able to get the job done in a matter of months for very little money.
There's also a supplier that can turn the nozzles of advanced engines for $120,000. Musk told him that it was as simple as a garage door lock, so he asked one of his engineers to make one for him for $5,000 each. Jeremy Holman, a young engineer at the Mueller Company, invented a new method of using a valve for clean liquid in the flushing system, which was modified to use fuel from the rocket.
Another supplier provided a set of aluminium fairings, which were mounted on the tanks, and then increased the price of the next batch. "It's like a painter who paints half a lacquer on your house and then rewrites a triple **, but Elon doesn't think so. Musk's closest person to SpaceX, Mark Junkosa, spoke. Musk told Juncosa: "We'll do it ourselves." Musk said that those who blackmailed him were the same as those who sold rockets in Moscow.
As a result, a new component was added to the assembly equipment to make the hood. A few years later, SpaceX had built 70 percent of its rocket components in-house. When SpaceX built the first Merlin rocket engine, Musk asked Mueller how much it weighed, and Mueller replied that it was about 1,000 pounds. Musk said that the Tesla S-type engine is about 4,000 pounds and costs about 30,000 dollars. "Since Tesla's engine is four times bigger than yours, why is your engine so expensive?”
One reason is that the production of rocket components is subject to hundreds of standards and requirements, including the military and NASA. In those big companies, engineers would follow this rule, but Musk did the opposite, allowing his engineers to question these rules, which is one of his "five steps", also known as "questioning".
Whenever an engineer asks him to do something, Musk asks him: Who made it?If the engineer's answer is "military demand" or "legal demand", then Musk will make him unhappy and insist that they name those people. "When we're talking about how to tell if the engine is good or bad and if the fuel tank is up to standard, he'll say, 'Why are we doing this?'”
Tim Buza, who used to work at Boeing and is now a vice chairman of SpaceX, said: "Our answer is that there is such a provision in the military code. "What is this for, you ask?”
Musk has been emphasizing that everything he says is a suggestion and can only be the only rule if it is limited by the laws of physics. In other words, everything he says is to think in essence, not to be bound by past experiences, not to make too many comparisons with similar things around him, to penetrate the layers of fog, and to see the truth.