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The "Implementation Opinions on the Establishment of a Coal Mine Energy Reserve System (Draft for Comments)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Draft for Comments") issued by the state a few days ago pointed out that the management mechanism of coal capacity reserves should be innovated, the coal mine energy reserve system should be established and improved, and the coal production capacity should be promoted to maintain a reasonable margin and sufficient flexibility, enhance the supply guarantee capacity, and better play the role of coal in the energy industry.
The Draft for Comments clarifies that by 2027, a coal mine energy reserve system will be initially established, and a number of coal mine projects with capacity reserves will be approved in an orderly manner, so as to form a dispatchable coal capacity reserve of a certain scale. By 2030, the capacity reserve system will be more sound, the capacity management system will be more perfect, and strive to form a dispatchable capacity reserve of 300 million tons, the national coal guarantee capacity will be significantly enhanced, and the supply elasticity and resilience will continue to improve.
Improve the elasticity and resilience of coal**.
It is understood that the design capacity of the capacity reserve coal mine is composed of two parts: conventional capacity and reserve capacity. Conventional production capacity refers to the normal production capacity of coal mines under non-emergency conditions, which is independently organized by enterprises according to market conditions and is not included in the scope of national unified scheduling; Reserve capacity refers to the capacity reserved on the basis of conventional capacity for peak shaving.
The Draft for Comments requires that the coal mines that declare the construction of reserve capacity shall be new and under-construction coal mine projects approved by the state, with a design capacity of not less than 3 million tons per year, and the scale of coal mine reserve capacity shall be divided into three grades according to the proportion of the coal mine design capacity. For coal mines with reserve capacity, if the newly built coal mine builds reserve capacity according to % of the design capacity, % of its new production capacity (including conventional capacity and reserve capacity) is exempted from capacity replacement. For those that have reviewed and confirmed the capacity replacement plan (including coal mines under construction), % of the total capacity replacement index can be used separately, and the index will not be converted.
The latest research report released by Guohai ** Co., Ltd. pointed out that if all reserve production capacity is built in accordance with 30%, it will involve 1 billion tons of conventional new production capacity in the future, and it will not involve capacity replacement; If all reserve capacity is built according to 20%, 1.5 billion tons of conventional new capacity will be involved in the future, of which 900 million tons will not involve capacity replacement, and 1800 million tonnes do not require capacity replacement. That is, by 2030, there will be a net increase of 9-1 billion tons of conventional production capacity, and 300 million tons of reserve capacity (of which 1.).8-300 million tons do not need to be replaced), and the total net increase in new production capacity will reach 108-1.3 billion tons. Reserve production capacity will increase the resilience and resilience of domestic coal and ensure energy security.
Security of supply is the top priority in China's energy sector, and it is necessary to improve the elasticity and resilience of coal supply. Especially considering that there has been a certain shortage of energy and electricity in China in recent years, coupled with the uncertainty caused by international geopolitical conflicts and high volatility of new energy, it is particularly important to give full play to the role of coal in guaranteeing coal based on China's resource endowment. Zuo Qianming, deputy general manager of Cinda ** Research and Development Center and chief energy analyst, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from China Energy News.
It is conducive to the stability of the coal market.
The Draft for Comments points out that the mining area where the coal mine is located for the construction of reserve capacity has convenient transportation conditions and sufficient capacity allocation, and is a large-scale modern open-pit coal mine or an underground coal mine with a high degree of safety guarantee in the five major coal guarantee bases, and coal products are mainly used to ensure the energy demand for power generation, heating and people's livelihood.
In addition, the production capacity reserve coal mine should strictly fulfill the responsibility of ensuring coal supply and price stability, sign medium and long-term thermal coal contracts in accordance with relevant requirements, and implement the relevant national policies. The commercial coal produced by the release of reserve capacity by the production capacity reserve coal mine shall be given priority to accept the unified dispatch of the state, and will no longer undertake the task of signing local medium and long-term contracts.
In this regard, Xing Lei, director of the Research Center for Coal Listed Companies of the University of Finance and Economics, told the China Energy News: "The establishment of a coal mine energy reserve system is conducive to preventing large fluctuations in the coal market. China's coal production last year was 45600 million tons, imported coal 29.3 billion tons, to meet the needs of economic development, but the coal market still has large ups and downs, the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system, can be the coal market supply tight, the largest range of production capacity release, increase supply, so as to stabilize the market. ”
In fact, in the past two years, China's coal market has experienced significant fluctuations in coal prices. SDIC Anxin** statistics show that China's thermal coal market will continue to operate at a high level in 2022, and the average spot price of Q5500 Mongolian coal in Qinhuangdao Port will reach 13052 yuan tons, compared with 1050 in 20213 yuan ton, further **255 yuan ton; The average prices in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia were 988 yuan ton, 1003 yuan ton, and 872 yuan ton, respectively, compared with 103 yuan ton to 147 yuan ton in 2021.
The draft proposes that by 2030, the production capacity reserve will reach 300 million tons per year, if the output is about 4.5 billion tons and 4Calculated by the import volume of about 500 million tons, the reserve capacity accounts for 67% and 667%, to a large extent, can smooth out the impact of fluctuations in domestic production and imports, and stabilize the domestic **. Guohai **shares*** pointed out in the research report.
Economic issues need to be considered.
How difficult is it to achieve the target of 300 million tonnes per year of dispatchable capacity reserve proposed in the Consultation Paper? Many respondents said that achieving this goal will not be difficult, but given the economics of investment in reserve capacity, there are a number of issues that need to be further clarified.
From the perspective of coal production, it is not very difficult to achieve. The production capacity of 300 million tons is equivalent to 658%, 72%。Since the declarable projects need to be large-scale modern open-pit coal mines or underground coal mines with a high degree of safety guarantee in the five major coal guarantee bases, there is no problem for these bases to achieve such production capacity. For the coal industry, this means that production will be further concentrated in the 'Three Wests' region. Xing Lei said.
However, Xing Lei also pointed out that there are still many problems to be solved in establishing a coal mine energy reserve system. "At the heart of it is the issue of funding. For example, for coal mines that undertake reserve production capacity, who will bear the investment in the construction of their reserve production capacity? How long can these reserves be maintained? Who will pay for the investment in equipment, safety, manpower, etc., to maintain these capacities? Is the cost of labor, materials and other costs that must be increased when the production capacity needs to be released by the enterprise in ordinary times? If there is no investment or financial support, are coal companies willing to reserve production capacity? These issues are open to discussion. ”
Zuo Qianming also said that if we only talk about production capacity, it is not a big problem to achieve the target of 300 million tons per year, but considering the economy and safe production, further research may be required. "Reserve capacity is equivalent to building and standby, if the enterprise to build on a high scale, how to balance this part of the fixed investment and operating cost pressure, and how to operate needs to be refined. At the same time, the continuity of coal mine production and safe production pay attention to balanced production, and how to ensure safe and stable production in the process of changing production capacity is also a problem to consider. ”
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