If "Ke Wenzhe collapses" in 2024, they are afraid of profits?Guo Zhengliang broke the inside story with 1 sentence
Introduction. Taiwan's leader in 2024 has entered a white-hot stage. The candidates for the leadership and deputy leadership of the three major political parties have all registered and started their respective campaign activities. Among them, Ke Wenzhe of the People's Party, as a third force that is neither blue nor green, has attracted a lot of attention and discussion. Whether Ke Wenzhe can break the blue-green confrontation and become a dark horse, or will he be crushed by the pressure of the two major parties, or even collapse, this is a question worth asking.
Recently, former legislator Guo Zhengliang analyzed Ke Wenzhe's election situation in the political program "News Talk", and he believes that if Ke Wenzhe collapses, the Kuomintang will not benefit from it, but may allow Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin, the green camp partner, to get more support, especially among young people and middle voters. He also suggested that the KMT should avoid overattacking Mr. Ko and instead put forward its own policies and ideas to win more voters' approval, otherwise it could backfire.
Guo Zhengliang's remarks have aroused a lot of repercussions, some people agree with his views, and some people hold different views. So, does Guo Zhengliang's analysis make sense?What is the election situation of Ke Wenzhe?This article will examine this from the following aspects.
Body. Ke Wenzhe's strengths and weaknesses.
As a candidate for the leadership of the People's Party, Ko Wenzhe has his own advantages and disadvantages. His strengths are mainly as follows:
As the mayor of Taipei, he has practical governance experience and achievements, and he also has a lot of supporters and fans, especially in Taipei City and the northern region.
He has a unique style and personality, he dares to speak out, he is not afraid of the powerful, he does not follow the crowd, he has his own opinions and judgments, and he is not easily influenced and interfered by the outside world, which makes him appear more sincere and brave in the eyes of some voters.
He has strong cross-border and integration skills, he is not limited to the blue-green political framework, but is able to communicate and cooperate with all parties, and his deputy leadership candidate is Wu Xinying, which also reflects his inclusive and open attitude.
Ke Wenzhe's disadvantages are mainly as follows:
He lacks a stable and strong party organization and resources, and the People's Party is a new party that has not been established for a long time, and it does not have a deep grassroots and masses, nor does it have sufficient financial and human resources, which makes it difficult for him to compete with the two major parties in the election, and it is difficult for him to expand his influence and support base.
He lacks clear and specific policies and ideas, his political propositions and positions often appear vague and vacillating, he neither fully supports *** nor fully supports one China, he is neither completely opposed to nuclear energy, nor fully supports green energy, he neither fully embraces the United States, nor completely rejects China, which makes him seem to have no direction and conviction in the eyes of some voters, and it is difficult to win their trust and recognition.
He lacks the ability to unite and coordinate, his personality and style, although he has a certain charm, but also has a certain amount of controversy and rejection, he often has conflicts and disagreements with his colleagues and allies, and often has confrontations and struggles with ** and **, which makes it difficult for him to establish good relationships and cooperation in political circles, and it is also difficult to form effective teams and alliances.
Ke Wenzhe's election and influence.
Ke Wenzhe's strengths and weaknesses determine his election and influence. According to the latest polls, Ke Wenzhe's support rate is around 15%, far lower than Lai Qingde's 40% and Hou Youyi's 35%, which shows that Ke Wenzhe's supporters are mainly some middle voters who are dissatisfied with blue and green, as well as some fans who have personal preferences for Ke Wenzhe, and their number and proportion are not enough for Ke Wenzhe to hope to win the election.
Ke Wenzhe's election will also affect the election results of other candidates. If Ke Wenzhe's support rate continues to decline or even collapse, then his supporters will flow to **?Guo Zhengliang believes that they will flow to Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin, rather than Hou Youyi and Wang Zhao Shaokang. His reason is that many of Ke Wenzhe's supporters are originally supporters of the green camp, and they only turned to Ke Wenzhe because they were a little dissatisfied with ***, but when they found that Ke Wenzhe had no chance of winning, they probably hated the Kuomintang even more, so they ran to Lai Qingde's side. Moreover, the political colors of Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin are not so strong and radical compared to ***, and they emphasize more economic and social development and reform, which can also attract the support of some middle voters and young voters.
On the other hand, Ko Wenzhe's supporters may not have much good impression and trust in the KMT, they may think that the KMT's policies and ideas are outdated and backward, and there is no way to solve the various problems and challenges facing Taiwan, and they may not be satisfied with the KMT's candidates, believing that they are all old-fashioned and conservative political figures, who have no new ideas and innovations, and no leadership and charisma.
Therefore, Guo Zhengliang's analysis has a certain truth, Ke Wenzhe's collapse may indeed allow Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin to get more benefits than the Kuomintang. Of course, this is not absolute, and Ke Wenzhe's supporters are not a monolith, and some of them may turn to the Kuomintang, or choose not to vote, or vote for other small parties and factions, and these factors will also affect the final election results.
The KMT's response strategy.
Since the collapse of Ke Wenzhe is not beneficial to the Kuomintang, how should the Kuomintang deal with it?Guo Zhengliang's suggestion is that the KMT should avoid attacking Ko Wenzhe excessively, and instead put forward its own policies and ideas to win more voters' approval, otherwise it may backfire. If the KMT only blindly attacks Ko Wenzhe, it will not only disgust Ko Wenzhe's supporters, but will also make other voters feel that the KMT lacks content and level, and will also damage the KMT's image and reputation, which will not be beneficial to the KMT's election results.
What the KMT should do is to show its own advantages and characteristics, and let voters see that the KMT has its own political ideas and propositions, its own governance plans and plans, its own team and talents, its own vision and goals, and its own charm and appeal. The Kuomintang should clearly convey its policies and ideas to the voters, so that the voters can understand and agree, the KMT should show its own governance plans and plans to the voters in detail, so that the voters can be convinced and expect, the KMT should effectively integrate and use its own team and talents, so that the voters can feel and support, the KMT should clearly express its vision and goals to the voters, so that the voters can resonate and participate, and the KMT should give full play to and release its charm and appeal, so that the voters can be enthusiastic and devoted。
Only in this way can the KMT truly win the hearts of the voters, can it truly increase its own support rate, can it truly engage in a fair and fierce competition with the green camp partners of Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Mei-qin, and can it truly make its own contributions and choices for Taiwan's future.
Epilogue. In short, as the leader of the People's Party, Ko Wenzhe is facing the attack of the two major parties, blue and green, as well as the lack of his own organization and resources, which may lead to a decline in his support rating or even collapse. If Mr. Ko collapses, the KMT will not benefit from it, but may instead give the green duo of Lai Ching-tak and Hsiao Mei-qin more support, especially among young people and middle-of-the-road voters. The KMT should refrain from attacking Ko Wenzhe excessively, and instead put forward its own policies and ideas to win the approval of more voters, otherwise it may backfire.