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Reading guide
2023 is coming to an end, looking back on the road traveled, upstream and downstream enterprises are in a hurry in the silicone market, stumbling, whether it is the confident price at the beginning of the year, the rebound after the fall or the low level at the end of the year, the upstream and downstream game has always run through the entire silicone supply and demand chain.
Specifically, a wave of good start in February kicked off, the upstream was vigorous, and the downstream also actively responded to stocking, but after a wave of stocking, the market returned to wait-and-see, at this time, DMC reached the highest point of 18,000 yuan this year. However, only a month, the macro positive in the continuous blessing, but the demand side has not been as expected, everyone's expectations for the market outlook have gradually turned from strong to weak, and in the early inventory support, the middle and lower reaches of the stock is more restrained, DMC from March all the way down to the end of the year, in the middle with the silicon metal down once fell below 13000, but now silicon metal has already rebounded to 15700 yuan tons, and DMC has been struggling at the 14000 mark, as of December 17: DMC mainstream **13800 14,500 yuan ton, the average price of 14,200 yuan ton, compared with 18,000 yuan ton at the beginning of the year**3800, a decrease of 2189%。
At present, due to the poor performance of new orders at the end of the year, the willingness of single factories to bid for shipments is still strong, and it is expected that DMC** will continue to fall in a narrow range in the short term. On the demand side, under the pressure of low temperature weather and capital at the end of the year, the willingness to stock up is not high, and they are waiting for the leading factories to adjust prices, and the year-end hoarding plan is temporarily postponed to January. In short, the upstream and downstream games are not only the best but also the mentality, before the leader enters, everything is still difficult to conclude. Original editing, please do not do it without authorization**).
Production reduction and restart alternately, and the overall operating rate is about 68%.
Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions: 1 plant with an annual output of 180,000 tons is operating normally;2 load-reducing devices resumed normal operation;The 400,000-ton unit in Zhangjiagang maintained low-load operation
North China: Hebei 200,000 tons of plant resumed normal operation;Follow-up storage and maintenance plan for 2 devices in Inner Mongolia;
Central China: 360,000 tons of units in Hubei and 500,000 tons of units in Jiangxi maintained low-load operation
Shandong: 1 plant with an annual output of 80,000 tons is operating normally;1 plant with an annual output of 600,000 tons is running under load1 150,000-ton plant long-term shutdown;
Northwest China: 1.4 million units in Shihezi and Shanshan, Xinjiang, are operating normally;
Southwest China: Sichuan 180,000 tons of equipment is operating normally;The 200,000-ton plant in Yunnan is operating normally;
Overall, the overall operating rate increased to 68% last weekAs the market trading atmosphere is still not subject to major fluctuations, there are plans to stop new devices until March, and there is an active accumulation of inventory in the near future.
107 glue has high downward pressure and high cost support for silicone oil
107 rubber market: Last week, the domestic 107 rubber market was mainly stable. As of December 17, the domestic 107 rubber market was 14,600-15,000 yuan tons. On the cost side, last week, some DMCs fell to 13,600 yuan, driving the DMC transactions of other manufacturers to fall back to about 13,800. At present, the price difference between 107 glue and DMC has expanded by nearly 1,000 yuan, which is a negative effect on the market demand for 107 glue for silicone rubber manufacturers with self-produced 107 glue equipment and the increase in the purchase of DMC.
* At the end of the day, the room temperature rubber industry chain of the leading factory has been expanded, and the self-consumption of 107 rubber has increased, and the price mentality is still high in the near future. The 107 glue of Shandong monomer factory is the main force, and the first shipment inventory resistance. In the short term, 107 glue under the pressure of receiving orders, the phenomenon of negotiation concessions increases, if DMC continues to be low, 107 glue to promote the transaction, secretly negotiate ** or there is 300-500 yuan tons of concession space, and DMC to form a normal price difference.
Silicone glue demand side: construction glue, affected by the cold wave, road transportation blocked, most of the northern construction sites have been suspended, and the southern construction sites are also mainly based on collection, and the market demand has further contracted. Therefore, dealers' year-end replenishment intentions are not high, and most of them are mainly purchased on demand. Photovoltaic glue, near the end of the year, some photovoltaic manufacturers are willing to upgrade their willingness to destock, and adopt a low-price dumping strategy, so the demand for profit concessions for photovoltaic glue is stronger, which affects the pressure operation of photovoltaic glue. Short-term market trading is concentrated near maintaining production demand, and the first price point is mostly around the low end, and the overall support for the demand side of 107 rubber is general.
In addition, the macro news is still weak, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to November, real estate development investment fell by 94%。The sales area of commercial housing in China was 100509 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 80%；The sales of commercial buildings 105318 billion yuan, down 52%, the real estate market is still not optimistic.
On the whole, the end of the year is approaching, and upstream and downstream manufacturers have reduced production and stopped losses to varying degrees, and mainly collected payments. At present, the buyer's power is dominant, the bargaining power is strong, and the game between supply and demand has led to the cold reception of manufacturers last week, and it is expected that the 107 rubber market will run weakly in the near future.
Silicone oil market: Last week, the domestic silicone oil market maintained a large and stable operation. As of December 17, the domestic silicone oil market was 15,500-16,500 yuan tons, a weekly decline of 093%。On the cost side, the center of gravity of DMC transactions fell again, and another important raw material, silicon ether, continued to remain high, while the manufacturer's low-cost silicon ether inventory was limited. As of the end of the week, the downstream large households have completed the signing of orders this month, and the overall scale of transaction orders is not large.
In terms of foreign brand silicone oil, although the downstream high-end users are resistant to imported materials, there is still a certain rigid support, after the previous business concessions, the current ** fell back to a reasonable range, as of the 17th, the foreign brand silicone oil ** business ** held stable 21,000-22,000 yuan tons. In the future, if domestic demand and domestic demand continue to decline, it is not ruled out that foreign-funded silicone oil products will decline further, and ** will also face pressure again.
On the demand side, the traditional demand off-season, downstream production is stable, and the demand for silicone oil remains normal. In the room temperature rubber market, rain, snow and cold wave weather cover a large area of the country, and the construction of the construction site sealing project is blocked. The printing and dyeing textile market was promoted by the rigid demand transaction, the transaction atmosphere warmed slightly, the northern region cooled down significantly, the domestic clothing orders improved, and the inventory pressure decreased. However, the year has fallen, and the demand market is still weak under the pressure of insufficient funds and domestic and foreign markets, and the short-term demand for silicone oil is difficult to change the flat and weak situation.
At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic silicone oil market is cold, and the downstream is mainly based on purchase orders, and it is expected that in the absence of new driving factors, the silicone oil market will maintain stable operation this week.
Pyrolysis material, waste silica gel is weak**
Pyrolytic material market: with the continuous decline of new materials, downstream orders are not much, pyrolytic material enterprises in order to avoid completely falling into the dilemma of having no single to receive, helpless to follow up the price reduction, last week pyrolytic material DMC ** down to 12300 12800 yuan tons, a price reduction of 200. However, the cost pressure still exists, the demand side continues to weaken, and although the cracker material enterprises have adjusted, the decline is limited.
In the past two years, the pyrolysis plant has been at a loss for two years, and now the pyrolysis plant has been stopped and closed. Up to now, the waste burr has fallen to 4500-4600 yuan tons, the demand for pyrolysis plant is limited, and the general situation next year is still not optimistic, the funds are tightened as much as possible, and the willingness to purchase burr is low. However, it is believed that after two years of reshuffle, the pyrolysis plant has been almost cleared, and it is time for waste silica gel to face the fact that supply exceeds demand.
Individually ** raw rubber is loose, and the bidding and shipment of rubber compound is heating up
Raw rubber market: Last week, raw rubber continued to **14500 15300 yuan tons. In the field, with the deepening of the decline of raw material DMC, the price gap between raw rubber and it is also widening, and rubber compounding enterprises are also bearish on raw rubber under the decline of DMC. However, there are still a large number of raw rubber orders to be sent from leading factories, and the single schedule has reached mid-January, maintaining a high price expectation. In addition, there is still some spot replenishment in the market, and the bidding sentiment of other monomer factories is also more restrained.
In the short term, after several months of dimensionality reduction and suppression, the order is basically two or eight points, and the rubber mixing enterprises still have a month of supply on the way, the short-term ups and downs are difficult to stimulate the stocking sentiment, and a small number of batches of purchases are currently made to maintain normal production. It is expected that the raw rubber market will operate steadily in the short term, and the local first-class profit concession phenomenon.
Rubber compound market: last week, the rubber compound market was weak and stable, due to the DMC ** driven, the first raw rubber also appeared loose, the cost support of rubber compound weakened, the bidding sentiment spread, and now the conventional rubber compound **13500-14300 yuan tons. At present, the arrival speed of raw rubber in leading factories is still slow, and rubber compounding enterprises have no choice but to accept the reality and purchase at high and low prices to maintain normal production. In the short term, the operating rate of rubber compounds has increased slightly, the output has increased, and the pressure of receiving orders has followed. On the demand side, downstream silicon products factories are at the end of the year, this year's difficulties are well known, many manufacturers at the end of the year financial pressure is too large, in the face of low prices, stocking is also powerless.
On the whole, the year is approaching, the cost side and the demand side of rubber compound are difficult to support, and it is the general trend to follow the market, and continue to hover between meager profits and losses.
Marketplace**
To sum up, in the current silicone market, the highest quality of raw material silicon metal remains high, which continues to form cost support for silicone. On the cost side, the electricity price in the southwest region rose during the dry season, and the operating rate fell further, and the 421 silicon metal spot in Yunnan remained stable during the week, and the Sichuan region increased in a narrow range due to the large increase in costs. In addition, the polysilicon production capacity has not decreased, some monomer units have been restarted, and the overall demand has increased slightly, so the price of silicon metal is expected to continue to rise in the near future.
On the demand side, due to the poor terminal demand, the overall downstream procurement shrinkage is obvious, there are few zero orders, and the pace of large households placing orders and picking up goods is gradually slowing down, resulting in greater pressure on some midstream production and shipments, and the market's expectations for future demand are poor.
* On the other hand, when facing the dual dilemma of cost pressure and market demand, the single factory is entangled in the mentality of profit concession and difficult to make decisions. Last week, some monomers restarted driving, and DMC** of individual manufacturers in Shandong fell to 13,600 yuan tons, and the atmosphere in the field was shrouded. Although other manufacturers have fallen to varying degrees, the leading factories continue to be strong, and the market outlook is uncertain, which further exacerbates the wait-and-see sentiment of the market. In addition, affected by the large-scale snowfall across the country, regional transportation is not smooth, the speed is slow, and the silicone is expected to be weak and stable.
On the whole, the pressure of strong supply and weak demand in the organic silicon market is difficult to alleviate, in this situation, our organic silicon enterprises should strive to enhance their competitiveness, reduce costs through technological innovation, management optimization and other measures, and improve product quality and added value. At the same time, strengthen cooperation and communication with upstream and downstream enterprises, jointly respond to market challenges, and realize the coordinated development of the industrial chain. In 2024, we will continue to use our own certainty to deal with the uncertainty of changing situations. (The above analysis is for reference only, for communication purposes, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy and sell the commodities involved).
December 18 silicone market mainstream**:
Silicone DMC
New material: 13600-14500 yuan ton (water purification tax included).
Pyrolysis material: 12300-12800 yuan ton (excluding tax).
Silicone D414600-15500 yuan ton (water purification tax included).
107 silicone rubber (conventional viscosity):
New material: 14,600-15,000 yuan tons (water purification tax included).
Dimethicone (conventional viscosity):
Domestic: 15,500-16,500 yuan tons (including tax and packaging).
Import: 21,000-22,000 yuan tons (including tax and packaging).
Pyrolysis material: 13500-14300 yuan ton (excluding tax).
Raw rubber (molecular weight 450,000-600,000):
14,500-15,300 yuan ton (including tax and packaging).
Precipitated rubber compound (conventional hardness):
13500-14300 yuan ton (including tax and packaging).
Waste silicone (waste silicone burr):
4500-4600 yuan ton (excluding tax).
Domestic fumed silica (200 specific surface area):
Medium and low end: 18,000-26,000 yuan ton (including tax and packaging).
High-end: 28,000-35,000 yuan tons (including tax and packaging).
Precipitated silica for silicone rubber:
6600-7200 yuan tons (including tax and packaging).
The transaction price is high or low, you need to confirm with the manufacturer's inquiry, the above ** is for reference only, not to make any transaction basis).
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