2023 is sure to be an unforgettable year for real estate in China.
This year's real estate market, after nearly 30 years of rapid development, stepped on the brakes and ushered in an inflection point.
The huge inertia has made many people confused, and everyone is very concerned about one question: will real estate have a hard landing?
Recently, Professor Fang Yi of the Institute of Development and Strategy of Chinese University gave a clear answer in a program, Professor Fang Yi said that it is difficult for housing prices to fall further sharply, and the state will not allow it.
Is this expert's statement reliable?Let's break down this problem.
Before talking about whether house prices will drop significantly, let's talk about how house prices have risen.
Many people are vague about this problem, as if the house price suddenly soared in place like a rocket in those years, and if they didn't pay attention to buying a house, they would have doubled the price of the house if they wanted to get on the bus.
At that time, some people did not believe in evil and felt that the price of housing was too exaggerated, so they simply waited for the price of the house, but they were slapped in the face by the reality, and the price of housing went all the way until it could not be climbed.
Many people complain that housing prices are too high and bring too much burden to life, but in my opinion, high housing prices are almost inevitable.
But any country that has experienced rapid economic development, the ** of real estate will skyrocket, why?The reason lies in two words: currency.
To put it simply, the rapid development of the economy has brought about an explosion of productivity, and the total amount of products in the society has suddenly skyrocketed, so it is necessary to issue the same amount of currency, otherwise it will lead to the scarcity of money and the low quality of products, thereby hurting the enthusiasm of production and hindering the development of the economy.
After the product is consumed, part of the money returns to the field of production and continues to circulate, while some money, such as profits, is left.
If the economy is developing steadily, then this part of the remaining currency is not a big problem, and it can be absorbed through banks and financial institutions.
But when the economy explodes, the amount of money left over will be very large, and financial institutions will not be able to digest it at all, so what should we do with this part of the money?
If it continues to return to circulation, it will undoubtedly cause an excess of money, too much money but not enough goods, and the money will naturally be worthless, simply put, inflation.
So in order to avoid high inflation, a "container" is needed to absorb the money.
The container needs to be large enough, with unobstructed import and export, and enough people to participate. If you meet these conditions, it looks like real estate.
Therefore, the soaring housing prices are the inevitable result of the economic explosion, and China's GDP jumped to the second in the world in those years.
The amount of money circulating in the economic field, if there is no real estate water storage, then it is normal for rice to rise to 100 yuan and 1 catty.
Of course, the above analysis is just a simple model, housing prices** and a series of drivers such as urbanization, land, and policy, if you want to talk about it in detail, you may have to write a book.
So I won't talk about it here, but it should be noted that the root cause of the rise in housing prices is "water storage".
Will house prices plummet?Everyone has their own opinions on this issue, but in the end, there are actually two views, yes or no.
But to say yes or no, in fact, it is a simplification of the complex issue of housing prices.
First of all, China has a vast territory, and the economic level of various regions is quite different, so the size of the "reservoir" in each region is also different.
This determines that it is difficult to have an overall sharp drop in housing prices, and some people will say that the real estate in the country is not very good this year
It is true that the entire real estate industry is in the cold winter this year, but it should be noted that the super first-tier cities have not completely "loosened" the policy until now.
That is, the cold in some places is really cold, while the cold in others is artificial refrigeration.
However, if the property goes further down and threatens the safety of several large reservoirs, it is not impossible to remove artificial refrigeration or even turn it into a slight heating.
Of course, some people will worry that under various stimulus measures, there will be another wave of "price increases and destocking" in real estate, which is actually unnecessary.
Because the main tone of the current real estate is one word, stable. That is to say, "first stand", only stability can achieve "first stand".
Since the word "stability" comes first, does it mean that there is no place to fall sharply?Not really.
Housing prices in some places have been speculated, which has seriously deviated from the original intention of "water storage", and it is almost inevitable that this kind of house will fall sharply.
For example, some suburban real estate in third- and fourth-tier cities will inevitably usher in the first ebb tide in this wave of adjustment and return to the position where they should have been.
I believe that many people will naturally ask the question when they see this: can they still buy a house next year?
There are different answers to this question for different groups.
First of all, if you have a rigid need for a house, then you can basically make a move.
As experts say, although there is no clear signal that real estate has bottomed out, there is also a lack of room for a significant downside, so buying early and buying late should not be much worse.
However, if you are unable to buy a house in order to wait for the price to drop, it will also cause inconvenience in your life.
Secondly, for people with improved demand, next year may be a good opportunity, because the current market is almost saturated, and the improved market has just started.
Next year's policy orientation with stability as the goal is likely to continue to make a fuss about improvement. Therefore, there are certain opportunities for improvement customers.
Thirdly, for investment customers, if they want to pursue a rate of return of up to several times as in the past, this is basically impossible. Even if there is such a possibility, it is recommended not to try it lightly, after all, it is not yet the time to "**". If you want to use real estate as an investment product to maintain value, then the real estate in the core area of the core city may have a certain investment value. And there is also a question mark over how long it will take for this investment value to be realized in the future. Kunpeng Project