The trend of pig prices in December has attracted much attention, especially in November, when there were three consecutive weeks of **, and the market has different opinions on whether pig prices can continue to rise in December. However, there are two pieces of bad news that could affect the future trend of pig prices.
First of all, this monthHogs**The pattern is loose, and the slaughter of small and medium-sized pigs and medium-sized pigs may surge. According to domesticHogsThe change in production capacity, although the sow herd level in February was lower than in previous months, as the sow herd was still more than 5% above the normal holdings, the commercial pigs** in December were still sufficient. In addition, as the end of the year is approaching, the annual slaughter plan of the group pig enterprises is about to be completed, and the number of mainstream head pig enterprises is expected to increase, and the farmers who have fattened the second time in the early stage will also collect the first bar, which may lead to a double increase in standard pigs and medium and large pigs.
Secondly, frozen pork stocks are high. Due to this yearHogs**Long time low run, mainstream slaughterhouses will be in advanceHogsHowever, due to the sluggish pork **, it is difficult to sell frozen pork, so the inventory of frozen pork is high. As the end of the year approaches, the shipment of frozen pork may increase significantly, and the level of pork ** will be further improved, especially for catering and group consumption.
Comprehensive market long and short game, although December may be supported by pickled good, pig prices may show a strong trend, but due toHogsand the easing of pork**, the range of pig prices** may be limited. Therefore, there is still uncertainty about whether it will be able to continue to soar.
Different people have different opinions on this issue. Some people believe that pig prices in December will be affected by multiple favorable factors, such as the temperature in the southern region, the gradual increase in demand for pickled meat, and the stocking needs of group pig enterprises and farmers at the end of the year. Others, however, are worriedHogsThe increase and the release of frozen pork stocks may lead to a rise in pig prices.
In my personal opinion, although the current easing situation may pose a certain pressure on pig prices, as the temperature further decreases, the increase in demand for pickled meat in the south is expected to play a certain supporting role in pig prices. In addition, the stocking demand at the end of the year may also bring a certain impetus to pig prices. Therefore, I think that the price of pigs in December may show a trend, but the magnitude may be constrained by some unfavorable factors.
The trend of pig prices in December is full of uncertainty. While there are some tailwinds in the market, the release of loose and frozen pork stocks may limit the space for pig prices. Therefore,InvestmentsWe should remain vigilant, pay close attention to changes in the market, and do a good jobRisk managementand flexibility to respond to market fluctuations.