First, the basic situation of the company.
Yongtai Energy is a coal company listed in May 1998, and it seems to be the only private coal company in the shares. The boss is Wang Guangxi, a native of Nanjing, Jiangsu.
Yongtai Energy was originally just digging coal, and later after various mergers and acquisitions, the acquisition of thermal power plants, the vigorous development of shale gas, the Internet of Things, the chemical industry, and various investments, etc., it has become a comprehensive enterprise. At present, the main business is mainly the power business, coal business and petrochemical business, and the other non-core businesses are being divested**.
Once some people succeed in a certain field, they will become inflated, thinking that they can do anything, and they are eager for quick success, hoping to enter the world's top 500 overnight. Boss Wang seems to have made such a mistake. Coal companies are originally asset-heavy industries, and Boss Wang ignored the company's reality, borrowed a lot of debt, carried out various mergers and acquisitions, and engaged in mixed business operations. Moreover, many M&A targets are also asset-heavy industries, with a long return on investment cycle. This has caused great difficulties for the company's cash flow. Finally, by 2018, it could no longer hold on, and there were successive debt defaults, triggering judicial restructuring, and the company was put on the hat.
After a period of tossing, the preliminary plan for debt restructuring was implemented. The company will help enterprises reduce leverage through the implementation of debt-to-equity swaps, debt extensions, and reducing corporate financial costs, and adjust the asset-liability ratio of enterprises to a reasonable level in combination with the realization and disposal of non-core assets. By the beginning of this year, the reorganization was basically completed, and the hat on his head was removed.
What is the practical impact of this restructuring on the company?
First of all, there is a significant decline in debt, with the debt-to-asset ratio falling from 73% at the end of 2019 to 56% at the end of 2020, and it is still in the process of declining. This is the same as Eternal Asia, but its amplitude is larger than Eternal Asia. In this way, the company's annual interest expense has dropped significantly (nearly a billion), and I will not list it here, you can check it for yourself. How to view: Use annual report or quarterly report, open the report, enter "financial expense" to search, and you can see it. You can compare the changes in interest expense. Most of the money the company made in the past has paid interest, and now how much interest expense is reduced is equivalent to how much more profit the company makes.
Second, among the top ten shareholders of Yongtai Energy, we will find a "Yongtai Energy shares *** bankruptcy enterprise property disposal account", in the first quarter of this year, the new entry, at that time showed that there were 6.3 billion shares, this account is the equity transfer for debt repayment of the special account, in the secondary market all sold is estimated to be able to recover about 10 billion cash, which will make its debt continue to decline.
Second, once the debt problem is resolved, its three major businesses can synergize with each other and develop benignly. Boss Wang's M&A operation, except for those investments that have left the main business (now being divested), others like thermal power plants, the direction should still be right, and their synergistic effect is obvious.
Through the above description, does it feel that Yongtai Energy is also similar to Eternal Asia, a bit of a dilemma reversal?But its current profit growth is actually all due to the decline in financial expenses. It's not a real reversal, but can it be reversed?
Let's talk about its three main businesses.
The power sector has now become the largest main business, and the scale is equivalent to a medium-sized power group, which is why it is now classified as the power sector in the classification of shares. The company's affiliated power enterprises have large installed capacity and high technical parameters, and all thermal power units in operation have achieved ultra-low emissions, reaching the current advanced emission index level of domestic generator sets, which is a clean energy in the thermal power industry with obvious competitive advantages. Among them, the four million-kilowatt ultra-supercritical coal-fired power generation units in operation have the characteristics of "low energy consumption, low emission, low pollution and high efficiency", and are currently one of the coal-fired generating units with the largest single capacity and the highest operating parameters in ChinaFour 600,000 kW units also belong to supercritical and ultra-supercritical units, and the only two 300,000 kW units belong to combined heat and power unitsZhangjiagang Huaxing's four 400,000 kW gas-fired units represent the most advanced gas turbine level in China. Combined with the current electricity price reform, there is still a certain amount of imagination. However, it is a pity that in the early stage of restructuring, several high-quality power generation projects, such as Xuzhou Peixian Power Generation Project, Zhoukou Power Generation Project, Nanyang Power Generation Project, Yan'an Power Generation Project and British Nuclear Power Project. All are used to pay off debts.
In the coal sector, the company's existing coal resources total 383.8 billion tons, of which 9 are high-quality coking coal resources1.4 billion tons, with a total of 29 high-quality thermal coal resources2.4 billion tons. However, the company's annual mining capacity is less than 10 million tons, and I compared it with other coal mining companies, a coal company with a market value of about 20 billion yuan, and its annual mining capacity is more than twice as much. This should have a lot to do with the boss these years to focus on mergers and acquisitions, and ignore the improvement of coal mining, this year, coal prices have risen sharply, due to capacity restrictions, other companies have made a lot of money, Yongtai can only drink some soup. From this section, we can find that the company's resource advantage is still very obvious, which is why the intangible assets in the company's balance sheet are so high. If we can increase investment in technological transformation and greatly increase production capacity, it will have a very obvious positive impact on the company's revenue.
In the petrochemical sector, the company's petrochemical projects have one 300,000-ton and three 20,000-ton oil terminals, with a total storage capacity of 1.15 million cubic meters of oil products, of which 1.12 million cubic meters are bonded warehouses and 30,000 cubic meters are export supervision warehouses, and have obtained the "two warehouses in one" operation pilot, with an annual total throughput capacity of 21.5 million tons, an annual dynamic storage capacity of 10 million tons of oil products and an annual fuel oil blending and processing capacity of 10 million tons, which is the largest marine fuel in China The oil blending center and one of the largest private oil storage and bonded oil depots in the country have a strong competitive advantage. This is also a project built by the boss with a lot of money, and with the shale oil and shale gas project that the company is vigorously developing, there is still some room for imagination. This sector is estimated to be a part of the company's ** chain, but it has not yet shown its advantages at all, and it can only be imagined for the time being.
Other investment aspects will not talk about it, basically not doing business, the funds were originally very tight, and the same as Evergrande, invest here, participate there, very messy, fortunately, a considerable part has been ** or is being stripped.
For us stockholders, it is useless to say a thousand words and ten thousand, and the stock price can bring us real benefits. Since the 18-year debt default, Yongtai has plummeted, reaching a minimum of 11 or so, but after the reorganization, it has come out of a wave of doubling**, and then**, and currently has the meaning of stabilization**. During this period of time, electricity has risen sharply, it does not follow, coal **, it has no reaction, let alone chemical industry. At the same time, I also noticed that when electricity or coal plummeted, it basically didn't follow, just like that. However, from the signs of capital flow, I feel that there are main funds to settle in, ready to do it, but this inflow is covered by a large number of sell-offs of "Yongtai Energy shares *** bankruptcy enterprise property disposal account", the account from a quarterly report of 6.3 billion shares to three quarterly reports of 1.3 billion shares, now the sell-off should be nearing the end, it is estimated that to the annual report, we will not see it in the top ten shareholders. At this time, the main force is estimated to have completed the opening of the position with a high probability, and after several trials and washes, is it going to launch a wave?When the time comes, it just won't follow anyone, give a little sunshine and it will shine, and go its own independent **?
3. For the current valuation of Yongtai Energy, purely from the perspective of performance, although the growth is still relatively obvious and expensive, it still has a good gene for reversal, and there is good synergy and complementarity between the main businesses, and the current valuation is still reasonable. If it can lead to a reversal due to truly benign development, it is not surprising to give it a valuation of 700 to 80 billion.
In addition, by the way, the state now encourages coal companies to explore and mine twice, that is, to detect whether there are other metals on the basis of the raw coal bed. In order to improve the comprehensive utilization rate of the company's mineral resources and cultivate new economic growth points, the company has made every effort to promote the exploration of aluminum resources under coal with the help of the opportunity of Shanxi Province to actively promote the "coal and aluminum resources co-mining pilot". At present, the company's Jintaiyuan Coal Mine, Dangdangling Coal Mine, Sendayuan Coal Mine, Nanshan Coal Mine, Mengziyu Coal Mine have completed the bauxite prospecting stage investigation, including: Jintaiyuan Coal Mine, Nanshan Coal Mine, Mengziyu Coal Mine, Sendayuan Coal Mine has completed the "Agreement to Transfer Bauxite Feasibility Demonstration Report", and passed the review of qualified professional institutions, is comprehensively analyzing, judging the relevant information, in order to expand the scope of exploration and obtain more resources;Other coal mine exploration work is also progressing in an orderly manner, among which: the other two coal mines owned by the company have entrusted qualified exploration units to start pre-investigation and exploration work, and it is expected to complete the review of the "Feasibility Demonstration Report on the Agreement to Transfer Bauxite" within the year. Subsequently, the company will promote the exploration and approval and acquisition of aluminum resources under coal in an orderly manner in accordance with the relevant policies and requirements of Shanxi Province, and strive to achieve a breakthrough as soon as possible to enhance the company's asset value and economic benefits. But for this point, it still seems to be far away, don't take it too seriously for the time being.
Fourth, from the performance of the previous three years to analyze.
The operating income in 2022 is 3555.6 billion yuan, an increase of 30 percent year-on-year86% and net profit 190.9 billion yuan, an increase of 69 percent year-on-year30%。
The operating income in 2020 is 2214.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4 percent year-on-year52%, net profit 459.6 billion yuan, an increase of 15 times year-on-year.
The operating income in 2021 is 2708 billion yuan, an increase of 22 percent year-on-year29% and net profit of 88.1 billion yuan, an increase of -80 percent year-on-year40%。
5. Reasonable valuation range.
Conservative: 185 yuan.
Optimism: 2$40.
Current share price: 137 yuan.
6. Margin of safety.
1.20 yuan 1$10.
7. Summary. The current price-to-earnings ratio is around 16 times, indicating that the stock price is relatively low.
Based on the non-net profit deducted in the past 1 year, ** the growth rate of non-net profit deducted in the future, the PEG is calculated as 086, indicating that the stock price is undervalued.
At present, the stock price is close to the margin of safety 7% off** range, which has a certain degree of safety, indicating that the probability of future rise is large.
Personally, I think that value investors can consider the idea of opening positions in batches on dips, and conservative investors should consider 1Position reduction or take profit near 85 yuan;Optimistic investors consider at 2Around 40 yuan, they reduced their positions or took profits.
The above logical analysis of thinking only represents personal views, not as the basis for investment, please think independently, independent judgment, independent decision-making, I wish you all a smooth investment!
Pay attention to it, and don't get lost ...... investment