Judging by the ability and willingness of the parties involved in the war in Ukraine, the conditions for getting out of the stalemate have not yet been formed. The coming year will not only be a test of the strategic confidence and patience of all parties involved, but also a test of the resilience of all parties' systems.The war in Ukraine has been going on for 22 months. From the beginning of the war, all parties involved in the war were aware of their relative advantages and disadvantages, and constantly adjusted their war strategies in order to suppress their opponents in pursuit of victory. However, from the second half of 2023, neither Russia nor Ukraine has won a game-turning victory on the battlefield, let alone forced the opponent to do what they want. The result was a costly stalemate in the war. And 2024 will be a crucial year for the warring parties to get out of the impasse in the war in Ukraine.
The reason for the stalemate in the war
The mismatch between the opportunity costs and benefits of war is the direct cause of the stalemate in the war. The U.S. has already provided about $113.4 billion in aid to Ukraine, and U.S. support is shaping the war in Ukraine. But when the war stalemate emerged, the war in support of Ukraine's independence and freedom became a bargaining tool for the American political elite. Many American Republicans oppose continuing to pour taxpayer money into Ukraine and insist that Biden should meet the demands of Republicans on the security of the U.S. border. Of course, the United States has its own pressure. After the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the U.S. House of Representatives approved $14.5 billion in military aid to Israel, as proposed by Republicans. Obviously, the two wars mentioned above have exacerbated the United States' reduction of its 1The difficulty of a $7 trillion fiscal deficit.
On December 13, Ukraine's Zelensky held a press conference with U.S. Biden during his visit to Washington.
The stalemate in the war is also linked to divisions within the EU. The cost of the EU war is also heavy, as well as a huge economic cost. The EU and its member states have provided around 84 billion euros in aid to Ukraine and plan to provide another 50 billion euros to Ukraine over four years from 2024, but the aid package was temporarily suspended due to opposition from Hungary at the EU summit in December.
A new strategy for the United States
In response to the stalemate in the war, the United States has opened a window to adjust its war strategy in Ukraine, which the United States calls the "hold and build strategy". The core goal of the strategy is to hold the territory of Ukraine, tap and improve Ukraine's war capabilities, and in particular, restore Ukraine's military production. However, the author believes that the new war strategy of the United States should be a combination of strategies, including isolating Russia politically and economically, striking at Russia's economic resilience, weakening Russia's war capabilities, and reorganizing the international political and economic order with the help of "friendly shore outsourcing".
Respond to war with "military Keynesianism".
"Military Keynesianism" is Russia's strategy in response to the war in Ukraine, including the establishment of a new military council to coordinate relations, the expansion of the power of the central bank, the approval of labor laws that favor the management of military enterprises, and the introduction of operational models in the fields of transportation, communications, and energy that meet the needs of war readiness. These measures have had some effect, and according to information released by the Bank of Russia in December, Russia's GDP growth rate is expected to exceed 3% in 2023, with the military industry and affiliated enterprises contributing the most. At the same time, Russia's fiscal deficit remains high, with a budget deficit of 3 trillion rubles in 2023. In order to maintain war capability and social stability, Russia spends about 37 percent of its budget on defense and social policy. Russia's budget deficit for fiscal year 2024 is expected to be around 16 trillion rubles.
As can be seen from the above data, the "military Keynesianism" partially defused the economic sanctions imposed by the West against Russia and dragged the United States and its allies into a war stalemate. However, "military Keynesianism" is a double-edged sword. During the period of the struggle for hegemony between the United States and the Soviet Union, Brezhnev pursued the "Military Keynesianism", and in the initial stage of implementation, the Soviet Union won many advantages in the struggle for hegemony between the United States and the Soviet Union, but it soon turned into a disadvantage and manifested itself in the economic field. Japan surpassed the Soviet Union to become the world's second-largest economy in 1978, and the Federal Republic of Germany overtook the Soviet Union to become the world's third-largest economy in 1986. In any highly competitive international system, a strategic miscalculation by a major power may impose an unbearable burden on itself.
The conditions for a break from the stalemate of the war have not yet been formed
Stalemate is a common phenomenon of war, and it will be reversed. Often, getting out of a stalemate depends on either a major military victory or a willingness on the part of the belligerents to make concessions on key issues. Regarding the stalemate in the war in Ukraine, many people believe that Russia's space and resources are more conducive to a war of attrition in the stalemate, while Ukraine and the United States and their allies are difficult to match.
This judgment is clearly biased. First, historically, the Soviet Union, which had obvious resource advantages, did not get out of the stalemate of the war in AfghanistanThe second is that, like the Soviet-German war, the war in Ukraine is a patriotic war for Ukraine;Third, controlling the costs and benefits of the war is the starting point of the U.S. policy of supporting the war in Ukraine, that is, the U.S. neither wants to escalate the war in Ukraine into a war between NATO and Russia, nor does it want to weaken its leadership in European security.
On December 27, Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Volodymyr Zelenskyy) at a meeting with workers of the Ukrainian defense industry said that in 2023, Ukraine's domestic equipment and production will triple compared to the previous year.
Therefore, judging by the ability and willingness of the parties involved in the war in Ukraine, the conditions for getting out of the war impasse have not yet been formed. The coming year will not only be a test of the strategic confidence and patience of all parties involved in the war in Ukraine, but also a test of the institutional resilience of all parties.